So, the pool deck. If the pool deck collapsing is the initiating event, then every single column supporting the pool deck, has to be a clean punching shear. Right? We have the TikTok video, which people claim there is a column that looks tipped over right? Gone, vanished. Where is this column? Would I be correct in assuming that the punching shear is easier to occur then a disappearing column? I mean, those columns look real tough. Like, say what you will about the connecting rebar on the pool deck to the columns, but those columns survived an entire pool deck slamming down on them from above.
So, the pool deck gets super old, it's had it, it collapses to the ground. Somehow causes the entire building to collapse. Right, sure, so then we should find every column still in it's rightful place punching through the pool deck.
There is the opinion that the roof collapsed over the side and slammed into the pool deck. Sure, that's possible, I don't think you can argue either for or against this. Needs more evidence. But, how does the roof crashing into the pool deck, somehow magically destroy a column? It just magically slammed into the exact position on the ground where the column was and Thor's hammered the crap out of it from above?
This isn't obvious, neither of these two could possibly be the initiating event, because we still have a missing column, where is that column? Also, the pool deck above the missing column looks intact right? So, it didn't punch through and then disappear right? It wasn't obliterated by the building falling on top of it. So, what happened to it?
Well, I think this matches with a side collision from a vehicle. You have a vehicle slam into that thing at full speed, and you've got enough of an impact to knock that thing out from under the pool deck. The connection to the pool deck is not much. So, if I am right, then your going to have a dead motorist crushed under the pool deck, inside their vehicle, next to a collapsed column.
But, how exactly does this happen? Well, you think about it, car is coming down a ramp, maybe the driver is tired, being it's late at night, and a foot taps the wrong pedal, and before you know it, it's right through the column. Why is this a difficult concept? It happened to me, old lady next door, she had a V6 she used to park in the backyard under a shady tree. Her meds are making her tired, and she gets in her car, winds the window down, and before she knows it, she's made the car fly 10 meters at speed through a fence and into the next door neighbours garage.
In 10 meters this woman dropping the foot to the floor on grass in her backyard, had managed to cause structural damage to a double bricked garage.
That guys story of "power is out", "left my car down in the garage", "left on my scooter". Something about this seems a bit BS to me. Like, you imagine if the person who did slam into the column, had managed to get out of the area before the collapse, you think they'd want to be honest about the situation, like, yeah, I just killed 150 people by driving drunk / tired into a column.
And, honestly, I've known plenty of people to slam into building columns. My uncle did it in an old BMW once. Wrecked the rear of his car big time. The column stayed in place, due to it supporting a 5 story building. In Australia, our columns are super thick, and honestly, I think these columns were probably very thick as well. Just, I don't think they were rebarred well at the top and maybe at the bottom.
The columns might be super strong, so you'll probably find them intact. I think of all the issues this building had, those columns were not one of them. And you tend to over engineer columns if they are going to be supporting the weight of a building. The columns under the pool deck, looked to be a very similar strength to those under the building. With one exception. The columns under the surviving structure were stronger.
You think maybe when they did the columns under the pool deck, they were thinking of the future? Like, in the future you might want to expand the building above the pool deck? It wouldn't surprise me. Like that pool deck is taking up valuable real estate.
On another note, people say the building is in bad shape, but it doesn't actually look that bad, like you can clearly see a bit of money going into fixing the cosmetic appearance of the building. The boards priorities with repairs seems to be entirely based on increasing condo value. If I owned a condo in an old building and was on the board, I'd probably be doing the same thing, getting the hell out of there.