The comments about the tests on the roof being 25% of each anchor at 5,000 lbs instead of all anchors at 25% of 5,000 lbs is very interesting.
At some point, doesn’t the slab act like a bow and arrow, so that it could be cracked if the two anchors are pulled together hard enough? What amount of force would it take to crack a 6” slab from two points 20 feet apart? Are we talking orders of magnitude more than 5,000 lbs?
It would be very interesting to know if and when this test was carried out.
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I also think it’s premature to dismiss the broken roof theory simply because it wasn’t reported by any witnesses. It really wouldn’t have to be obvious to them.
How large an object would have to fall off the roof to cave in the pool slab? That’s the real question.
If you say the slab could have collapsed entirely on its own under its own weight, then any falling object whatsoever could have broken it. Could a single CMU do the job? A few hundred pounds? And a falling object wouldn’t necessarily need to hit every balcony on the way down. The roof cantilever is big enough that an object could easily clear every balcony.
At the starting time of the only video we have of the collapse, the rear penthouse parapet is unaccounted for. It can be theorized to simply have already started falling vertical, but as of right now, the video is not sufficiently clear to be able to say that. When that roof eventually comes back into view, as its folding over the collapsing stack, we can see what looks like a brand new coat - pure black, with no ballast on it yet.
A collapse of the rear penthouse, being recently worked on, and throwing a modest chunk of parapet wall off the edge, could have easily caved in the pool deck near unit 111.
Bystanders who ran out when the deck collapsed would not have seen a falling chunk of wall, nor would anybody on the ground have visibly noticed a collapse of a portion of the penthouse. Whether the floor of the penthouse could have survived the collapse of the roof, I can’t say. But nothing appears to disprove a rooftop event preceding the collapse.