dougs1967-
HSLA steels were intended primarily to be used in the as-rolled condition. I don't recall having seen an instance of HSLA steel being carburized. From your description, it sounds like there is insufficient hardness in the raceway surface, or that the finished race surface geometry may lack adequate conformal contact (osculation curvature) with the balls, causing excessive contact stress.
While I have seen low-cost, low-performance ball bearings with outer races formed from sheet metal, I don't recall what material was used or the heat treatment. I think you would be better off sticking with a case hardened race made from a cold-rolled carbon steel. Cold-rolled material actually has pretty good grain structure and the surface is much smoother & clean than hot-rolled material. While it appears that cost is an issue for your application, if possible it would also be a good idea to give the race surface a low-cost finish process to improve smoothness (ie. honing, tumble & roller burnish, etc). If you are heat treating the race after forming, I would also recommend doing some tests to develop an "as-formed" part shape that compensates for any heat treat distortion.
Hope that helps.
Terry