Ok, you made me actually get out my ASHRAE handbook.
Sol-air would actually over-estimate the surface temperature.
Sol-air temperature is defined as the air temperature, in the absence of all radiation exchange, that would produce the same heat flux into a surface as the combined radiation exchange.
If you assume a perfectly insulated roof structure below the metal roof, and steady-state conditions, then sol-air temperature would equal surface temperature.
In a real roof, there will be often be heat transfer through the roof into the building, so there will always be a net heat flux into the roofing material on the sunny side, and hence sol-air temperature must always be higher than physical surface temperature.
Therefore, using sol-air temperature for an expansion calculation would be conservative.