Any one that passed chemistry 101 should recollect that one byproduct of combustion is H2O. The moisture observed on a cold plate or member is simply condensatation of the water that is a byproduct of the chemical reaction between the fuel (typically a hydrocarbon) and the oxygen. All the "smoke" observed during a rocket launch, where the propellants are liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen, is water in the gaseous state (steam).
Preheat is used as a means of reducing the cooling rate to mitigate undesirable microstructures that can result if the cooling rate is too high. The preheat temperature required is dependent on the chemistry, i.e., carbon equivalency, the base metal thickness, and the degree of restraint. AWS D1.1 is relatively conservative compared to other welding standards such as some NAVSEA fabrication standards or ASME B&PV code.
Moisture will stop collecting on the surface of the base metal as soon as the temperature of the steel is above the dew point. Think of the moisture that collects on the surface of a glass containing cold ice tea. Once the ice melts and the temperature of the tea is the same as the surrounding air, moisture no longer collects on the outside of the glass. The moisture isn’t collecting on the surface of the glass because it is leaking or because there are pores in the glass, it is simply the moisture in the air condensing on the colder surface of the glass container. I would have used a pitcher of cold beer as the analogy, but rarely does the beer last long enough for the temperature to come into equilibrium with the surrounding air.
We did an experiment in Thermogoddamics when I was a kid. We had to determine the BTU of natural gas. We passed water through a boiler and monitored the temperature of the water going in and the temperature of the water going out. We also monitored the volume of water passing through the boiler. As we passed the water through the boiler, we heated it with a Bunsen burner. The volume of the gas burned was measured. Several of my classmates asked for new boilers as the experiment got underway because their boilers had obvious leaks. The professor turned to me as asked, “Al, my little welder friend, tell all these genius’ where the water is coming from.”
Considering all the students were in their fourth year and majoring in Physics I concluded there is no hope for society.
Back to the question; water can be trapped between lapped members, it can be a byproduct of combustion, it can even be surface moisture because it rained the evening before, but it ain’t coming out of the base metal! If it did, we wouldn’t be able to buy beer in cans, submarines would only submerged, and ships would always sink.
Best regards - Al