Thanks for all the input, guys.
We ended up estimating by volume using a "fluff factor" of 20%.
I had the idea afterward thinking it through, and reading this forum, that estimating by weight would have been useful, and maybe more accurate. This would involve taking the total volume, which I think was 7,000,000cf, and translating to tons using a Proctor Value for unit weight.
7,000,000cf x 135pcf = 94.5 lb6 (or 473000 tons)
This way, you'll have the final weight predicted using the value of compacted material! True, the fill probably won't be placed at 100% compaction, so you may have a slight overestimate, hopefully not by much if they're doing a good job of compaction. lol
It's also true that neither method accounts for settlement! This estimate was given off the cuff, still I wonder if this is a glimpse of the genesis of budget overruns....
Great input. Enjoy the weekend.