Boeing 737 Max8 Aircraft Crashes and Investigations [Part 6] 17

[Sparweb]

This post is the continuation from this series of previous threads:

thread815-445840
thread815-450258
thread815-452000
thread815-454283
thread815-457125

This topic is broken into multiple threads due to the length to be scrolled, and images to load, creating long load times for some users and devices. If you are NEW to this discussion, please read the above threads prior to posting, to avoid rehashing old discussions.

Thank you everyone for your interest! I have learned a lot from the discussion, too.

Some key references:
Ethiopian CAA preliminary report

Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee preliminary report

A Boeing 737 Technical Site

Washington Post: When Will Boeing 737 Max Fly Again and More Questions

BBC: Boeing to temporarily halt 737 Max production in January

 

[Lou Scannon]

Is it just a coincidence that American and Alaska have just announced Alaska joining the OneWorld alliance... do you suppose AA has some Machiavellian scheme for commandeering Alaska's fleet to backfill for the missing Max's?

"Schiefgehen wird, was schiefgehen kann" - das Murphygesetz

 

[waross]

That is an interesting idea, so I took a look at their fleets.
From Wiki:
American Airlines
American is the largest operator of the Airbus A320 family in the world.[1][n 1] It operates the largest fleet of A321 aircraft, and the largest A319 fleet in the world.
American operates 945 aircraft.
Of those, 304 are 737-800s flying.
24 Max-8s are grounded and 76 Max-8s are on order.
American also has 56 Airbus A321neos on order and 50 Airbus A321XLRs for delivery from 2023 to 2025.
So 100 planes out of 945 is worrisome but probably survivable.

Alaska Airlines
Excluding freight and subsidiaries airlines, Alaska operates 234 Aircraft.
Of those, 163 are 737 types.
On order are 32 737 MAX-9s, overdue since June 2019.
As well, on order are 30 Airbus A320neos.
With 32 aircraft missing from a fleet of 234, Alaska's percentage is a little worse than American's, but probably survivable.
I suspect that the deal will benefit both airlines through code sharing.

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Interesting reporting on current process

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-...s-final-gantlet-to-return-737-max-to-service/

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

https://www.seattletimes.com/busine...-over-737-max-wiring-flaw-that-boeing-missed/

Word from EASa side of things it doesn't matter what the FAA agree to its going to get sorted....

The chaffing nonsense is utter bollocks they can leave the original wires in place and cut them at both ends and then reroute new ones and take the 2 kg hit to the dry operating weight. this is standard bollocks with logo light wiring.


Another thing in the mix is this nonsense over aircraft tariffs, they have already stop production of and there is production plants already up and running to get round the tariffs anyway. And the tariffs only hit the USA consumers. And even if American airlines wanted to buy US produce they have shut the production down anyway..... So the airlines have the choice of pay up or not have any new planes and pay the hit in fuel.

And because the US is refusing to appoint for the WTO courts nothing can get sorted out anyway. And the case against Boeing which every man and his dog knows is going to go the same way as the airbus one is due out soon but no appeal court to process the appeal. Not that it matters because Boeing can't deliver anyway.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busine...tion-will-raise-tariffs-on-european-aircraft/

What a stupid mess.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Rather alarming rumour is that the USA is going to have colossal number of very new jets to use which will only be legal to fly in US airspace.

MCAS is now a stall protection system and the looms have to conform to modern standards

It means 18 months before if fly's outside the USA airspace. And it flying inside USA airspace is dependant on the FAA breaking away from the other regulators.

 

[moon161]

But they've got beautiful plumage!

 

[dik]

If it doesn't rain, it pours... from the BBC:

"A company spokesman told the BBC: "While conducting maintenance we discovered Foreign Object Debris (FOD) in undelivered 737 Max airplanes currently in storage. That finding led to a robust internal investigation and immediate corrective actions in our production system."

Foreign Object Debris is an industrial term for rags, tools, metal shavings and other materials left behind by workers during the assembly process."

Dik

 

[waross]

Airbus picked up orders for over 200 A320neo Family craft in January 2020.
Yet to be delivered: 6,249 A320 Family aircraft.

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

 

[davefitz]

If the rumors are true re: 737max in usa only, then it implies the US airlines would lease the other certified types of aircraft to the rest of the world to ameliorate their shortage, and US passengers to be the guinea pigs.

"...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick

 

[Tomfh]

Why would US airlines and customers put up with that?

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

The problem with the FOD is the same as they had with the 787 production line.

As for airbus its not going to help anyone.

Its running at 720 production units per year. At the moment and trying for 7 units a month in Alabama which is included in that 720.

I feel sorry for the USA airlines fleets they want the Alabama units to avoid paying the tarrifs so they are trapped in the middle of all this.

It could be the case that all the production so far has to remain on US soil. And only the new wiring aircraft get delivered world wide. That would mean that the domestic US airlines get their MAX aircraft relatively quickly.

Its not impossible that we will be on thread part 8 same time next year with yet more issues surfacing....


Oh BTW I just had the "call" summer leave cancelled. And end of May I will be able to comment first hand on the flybywire system on the cs300.... In a funny way I am going to miss turboprops and the mighty dash. Its the most overpowered contraption I have ever flown including all but one aerobatic aircraft I have flown. Not going to miss its toilet or its deicing system with that stupid inc ref switch though.

 

[dik]

AH: "Its not impossible that we will be on thread part 8 same time next year with yet more issues surfacing...."

I recall a year or two back, joking with JAE on the Florida Bridge Collapse that they were headed to episode 15 or thereabouts... Looks like it's happened...

Dik

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Just to make 100% sure it is only a rumour that the current production units will stay in the USA.

You have to watch it in Europe about the MAX due to it causing Ryanair a significant amount of pain. There are loads of people that hate the company with a passion, more than a few of them ex employee's, they per say have zero interest in Airbus success just that Ryanair gets screwed. They are quiet short sighted because a sudden dumping of pilots on the market will drag everyone's T&C's down.

Next year is looking like the 7 yearly aviation depression is going to start anyway... Expats in china are getting the boot and coming home and the corona virus stuff is hitting asia hard. If it does it will be two years anyway before it starts picking up again. Cathy are looking extremely dodgy just now and with some of the middle east airlines. But that's the long haul aircraft market.

The issue for all airlines is the fuel burn of the new aircraft. If they can't get their hands on the neo and MAX and have to run the NG's they will get roasted in the Market. 20$ price difference in tickets is the difference between a full plane and half empty. With the new engines even same price means one company will be making profit and the other making nothing possibly a loss.

So I suspect US domestic airlines will have zero issue with having access to 700 odd new engine airframes in a relatively short time scale. As for the pax……. Airline finance officers and managers went to the same schools as the Boeing lot..... It will mean a bonus increase. Pax will have the option of fly on MAX or get the train or bus.... Even if they book airbus flights there won't be enough to full fill the load and they will have no option but to fly on the MAX, after a couple of MAX flights they will forget about it anyway.

 

[LittleInch]

A bit off topic but is the CS300 now the A220-300?? Designed by bombardier, but now sold / taken over by Airbus?

But I agree that in airline travel for this type of journey, ticket price is King so the new aircraft engines are so important.

But Oooh joystick control! Hope it goes well.

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

yes that's the one....

Cockpit is nice but you should see the toilet next to the flight deck. A 6ft bloke can actually go for a pee standing up without having to bend zee knees or batter their head off the roof. And you don't run the risk of the door springing open while your pulling your trousers up after the red eye top of climb reduction in dry operating mass and putting the biz class pax off their breakfast.

Only one memory item as well. Which is put the masks on. No paper QRH book to work your way through to try and find the right page. Everything through the ecam.

Its a well trod route Q400 to A220 now. We actually have less issues than the 737 classic drivers which goes against normal theory for transferring types.

 

[dik]

I wonder how climate change will impact aircraft travel... could be a major item.

Dik

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

It already is along with all the other long distance transport types. Ships pump out some pretty horrible stuff as well.

 

[IRstuff]

Amusingly, there's an article floating around that aircraft contrails could potentially mitigate climate change because they tend to reflect sunlight and therefore reduce solar loading on the Earth.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[Comcokid]

IRstuff-
Yes, but there are also articles out there that contrails help cloud formation at night, which helps hold-in radiant heat that would otherwise go into space at night leading to higher night-time temperatures and carries heat into the next day.

When 9-11 happened there were several days of no plane flights over the US. Weather stations recorded an immediate dramatic increase in the difference between day and night temperatures.

 

[Sparweb]

And end of May I will be able to comment first hand on the flybywire system on the cs300....

Welcome to the 21st century!
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