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Ukraine airline crash Tehran
15

Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Ukraine airline crash Tehran

(OP)
Fairly horrific video showing what looks like a major fire and a spiral into the ground.

With the current situation don't know if well ever get to see what happened here.

New plane 737 800.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/iran...

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

The internet lights up with stories about 'awful 737s'. Ignorance IS bliss.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote (thebard3)

The internet lights up with stories about 'awful 737s'. Ignorance IS bliss.

The 737 MAX issues are causing a brand failure. The "737" part is what people see as the brand. So any issues with any 737 will (for now) make for good attention-grabbing headlines. Like this:

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/01/08/boeing_73...

Quote (The Register)

In the airworthiness directive the FAA said it had "confirmed that the faulty version of DEU software has already been removed from all airplanes conducting scheduled airline service into the affected airports" in the US.

That article wouldn't likely merit much of an article if not for the MAX issues. It's a minor bug with a fix already present on many planes with an airworthiness directive to work around it on those that haven't gotten updates yet. But because it's a 737 it gets an article outside aviation news sites. The brand "737" is (at least for now) being tainted in the minds of the public.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Burning bits flying off suggest an explosive damage, as was suggested by one talking head. Supposedly, no cockpit comms with the plane during all of that, so again, bad implication.

Sadly, my first thought was either missile or bomb, as well.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Why would they shoot down a Ukrainian plane full of Iranians? Makes no sense at all, surely just a coincidence.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote (canwesteng)


Why would they shoot down a Ukrainian plane full of Iranians? Makes no sense at all, surely just a coincidence.

A significant number of the passengers were actually Canadian.

Rule #39: "There is no such thing as a coincidence." Leroy Jethro Gibbs.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

IMHO, maybe a mistake, rather than a coincidence.

Picture someone in an Iranian AA battery saying "OH *%^&, oops"

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Yeah! I can't see someone calling the airline and asking the nationalities of the passengers. "Any Americans?"

Probably very twitchy anti-aircraft people.
At any rate Ukraine has done the right thing and suspended any and all flights in Iran.

Keith Cress
kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

(OP)
My experience of the ME tells me many of the "canadians" come with a west Texas drawl in order to work out there and not face sanctions.

I think a collision with a big drone is more likely. Whatever it was the flight 24 data stopped sending at 4000ft while climbing from what I've seen in reports.

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

(OP)
Ok. More plausible alright.

Still a tragedy wherever they come from.

It was the sheer number of canadians that surprised me.

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

The plane was reportedly returning to the airport so I expect it had some kind of mechanical problem and/or fire. The black boxes should give us hard evidence soon.

----------------------------------------

The Help for this program was created in Windows Help format, which depends on a feature that isn't included in this version of Windows.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

The flight to Kiev conveniently connected through to Toronto. The Canadian news media reported that this airline and route was thus an attractive and commonly chosen option. A major factor to all this being the US sanctions,

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote (JohnRBaker (Mechanical))

Rule #39: "There is no such thing as a coincidence." Leroy Jethro Gibbs.

But do you always carry a knife?

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote (winelandv)


But do you always carry a knife?

I used to carry a very nice Swiss Army knife, which was given to me during a visit to Pilatus, a Swiss aerospace company, many years ago. Unfortunately, I forget that it was in my pocket the last time my wife and I went to Disneyland and they confiscated it and refused to hold it for me until we left the park. I almost didn't go in, but the tickets were only good for that day sad

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
EX-Product 'Evangelist'
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:
UG/NX Museum:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I recently made the same mistake going while touring a government building. I realized my mistake before I got to the security checkpoint though, so I found a flower pot down a deserted sidewalk nearby and buried it. Still there when I came out 3 hours later!

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I tried the bury the knife in a flower bed trick outside one of the Smithsonian museums, not so lucky. Don't know if some tourist saw me and took it or the security camera monitors picked it up. Was a Henry Williams, one of their early plainer models with titanium handle and ZDP189 blade that had been my every day carry for years. We parked under a federal building so I couldn't even go back to the car. Really pissed me off. I've not been able to find a replacement even though I've got a standing search on ebay.

----------------------------------------

The Help for this program was created in Windows Help format, which depends on a feature that isn't included in this version of Windows.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

BBC: Iran 'mistakenly shot down Ukraine jet' - US media

If true, it's not surprising. Less unlikely than the alternate coincidental possibilities.

Edit to add: "...CBS News quoting US intelligence said a satellite detected infrared 'blips' of two missile launches, followed by another blip of an explosion."

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Someone is certainly going to lose their head, probably literally, given that the Ukrainian plane had just taken off from Tehran's airport. Given that possible scenario, it might be likely that the jet was returning to the airport because the first missile missed and the pilots assumed they were under attack. That might be why the cockpit voice recordings will never see the light of day, at least, until Iran doctors it sufficiently

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Yep all very sad. Wouldn't call it a engineering failure. It worked exactly how it should have done.

Unfortunately in quiet a few countries civi aircraft are tracked constantly when they are within range. Mil mates say this is due to keeping the scopies alert and keeping the skills current.

It happens in Europe as well for training purposes but I believe they don't have hot ones loaded.

These missiles don't actually hit the aircraft they get near then explode and send a sphere of high Ek hardened shrapnel out. Some of them have a high Ek ring which projects forward as well. As such the plane doesn't explode when hit until the fuel goes up. It just has a large amount of its systems taken out and its fuel tanks shredded.

I suspect it was a training session and the firing circuit fuse wasn't pulled.

This has happen to the UK RAF as well with the infamous Jag take down by a Phantom over Germany. Everyone was flying hot due to the cold war and a fuse wasn't pulled properly resulting in a missile coming off the rails and hitting the target during a training exercise. This happened in 1982.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I suspect it wasn't a training scenario. They were on high alert and it seems that they mis-identified the aircraft. As a former navy fire control technician, I'll say we were NEVER allowed to track civilian aircraft, but we did it anyway because sometimes you have to actually track something just to prove operation. We could never have accidentally fired a missile. Also, having read the report of the Iran Air 655 downing by the navy in 1988, I was bewildered that there could ever be a situation where anyone could not tell the difference between a civilian airliner on take-off from an airport and a military jet on an attack run. It would be just like mistaking a semi truck on the interstate from an indy car.
Anyways, definitely not an engineering failure as it looks like both the plane and the AA battery worked flawlessly.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Reaching for "training session" as a possible explanation seems unnecessary, especially given the larger context (recent news items and, some might add the endemic societal characteristics).

More likely to be just accidental / negligent misidentification within that context. This is speculation too of course, but arguably more likely.

Vaguely similar to Iran Air Flight 655. See also list of such incidents.



RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I suspect the SAM site operator fell asleep and awakened to a proximity alarm and just took the shot. It may have been blaring away for several minutes before waking him. They've probably been on alert for days and in the relative quiet of the vehicle and the dark of the mountains - it caught up.

From the location they fired from they had an airplane heading out into the mountains and away from structures so they would have had another 3 minutes to call to verify if they'd watched it take off and still have time to shoot.

So I think the operator felt they had no time at all and would have been sitting ducks with the radar running if that was an anti-radar mission.

The alternative is some large conspiracy of multiple layers and that seems too complicated and unnecessary. Example: they wanted to kill one of the passengers - why not secretly arrest them on some pretext and arrange an accident and dump them somewhere plausible? Another is some rebel faction using this for some other purpose - but to do that they need to take credit for a heinous act and where's the advantage to that?

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Doesn't have to be a conspiracy, just one commander who felt it was God's will that he shoot down a plane belonging to a US ally, partially filled with citizens from another US ally. In any country where chain of command could be suborned by a religious imperative, anything can happen. Any Iranians that die on the plane in such a circumstance would considered martyrs, in some circles, who automatically go to the heavenly paradise.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

2
IRstuff - agree. But it isn't only religious imperatives. Some political philosophies create similar, if not more extreme zeal...and many "religious" movements are really just covers for blatant political power.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

(OP)
If you can't access the nytimes video here's another route.

Looks pretty damming to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/jan/1...

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Despite the circumstances, it does strike me as rather funny each time someone states or the new writes that the missile launches could have been accidental. I highly doubt the missiles launched by themselves. Someone had to purposely targeted the plane and initiate the launch. The missiles were purposely launched at the wrong target would be a more correct description.

It sounds like the USA has enough evidence which proves beyond a doubt it was a missile strike. But, it might never be fully released since it could compromise their ability to continue spying on countries like Iran. The claims by Iran that they'll allow Ukrainian and Canadians to help investigate is just posturing because they'll be working hard against those investigators to keep as much physical evidence hidden as they can.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Lionel - as some mentioned before, there are countries out there whose military will "practice" on civilian aircraft for radar tracking, target acquisition, and firing drills. The key is not actually firing. Whether there was a button pressed that should have been, or a fuse that should of been pulled but wasn't, there are ways that such a "practice" scenario could go terribly wrong.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I very highly doubt they were simply doing drills hours after launching that retaliatory missile strike. Whoever was in command of those missiles purposely launched at the plane.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

It's another story as to how I got a ride in the fold down navigators seat in a 737, years ago. In the mid 80s as I recall.
We were flying past a Canadian Air base and a little light lit up on the corner of the radar set.
Part of the conversation between the pilots:
"Damm. The base is tracking us."
"They have us on radar lock."
"I wish that they wouldn't do that."
"Ya, I really wish they wouldn't do that."

Bill
--------------------
"Why not the best?"
Jimmy Carter

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

As long as motive never matters there can never be an accident? Look up the definition of the word so we can all be on the same page from now on.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

As far as I know, there has never been a case of a US military land or sea based missile being launched during a drill by accident. In the old days when an trainable launcher was used, we loaded up a test missile which had no motor, guidance, seeker, fuse or warhead. Land based assets were similar. Today the missiles are basically launched directly from the magazine but I would be very surprised if the safeguards in place are less secure now than they were then. Basically the firing key and the live ammunition are air-gapped. I know very little about aircraft launched systems so I can't comment there. I would be likewise surprised if the TOR system in question isn't safeguarded similarly.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

You mean there has never been an inadvertent launch. Shooting down the Iranian passenger plane was an accident.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote (3DDave)

You mean there has never been an inadvertent launch.
Exactly correct. My statement was that one was never 'launched during a drill by accident'. I guess I should clarify that I am excluding live firing exercise. I'd be really surprised if the Iranians were conducting a live firing exercise over Tehran at night in the vicinity of their airport.
I think the plane was shot down on purpose, but I am not implying that there was anything purposeful about downing a passenger plane full of civilians. It was unfortunately mis-identified as a military target of some form. I actually have some sympathy for the crew of the AA battery as I'm sure at least most of them will have remorse and regret for the rest of their lives for the mistake they made.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

That word "accident" again. I don't care about the "DRILL" part. Because we are looking at the situation of bringing down an aircraft, not shooting a cloud. So we are concerned with the reason for the launch.

But good on the USN for hiding any inadvertent launches they most certainly must have done. The US Miliary lost NUCLEAR WEAPONS on at least two occasions, but nope, could not have a training exercise go wrong.

I know for a fact, that an E-FOGM missile launch fired the wrong missile out of the launcher because the boost motor was wired wrong at the test panel. So when they saw they had no control of the missile they hit the self-destruct, which promptly blew the second test missile to smithereens because that's where the optical fiber communication went.

I guess that could not have been an accident. It must have been on purpose because every step along the way was deliberately performed to get exactly that result.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote:

and many "religious" movements are really just covers for blatant political power.

No doubt, but at the individual actors' level, it's rarely about helping someone else to power.

Quote:

As long as motive never matters there can never be an accident? Look up the definition of the word so we can all be on the same page from now on.

The definitions boil down to "unintentional" or "random physics" neither of which apply if it was a missile. Someone had to track the target, arm the launcher, arm the missile, and push a button. The middle two might possibly be a single act. There is the possibility that someone honestly thought it was a threat aircraft, but it's unlikely, given that commercial airliners all have transponders and the radar track would have shown it to have come from the airport. Moreover, if the system had been in place for anytime more than a day, the operators would have been familiar with the flight patterns around the airport.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

3DDave-
Wow. I kinda thought we were in agreement about this thing but I guess not. I can only speak from my experience and knowledge base from my military time many years ago. I never said accidents don't occur, and I think this was one of them, in one of many forms of how you may define 'accident'.

Brad Waybright

It's all okay as long as it's okay.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Certainly, an "accident" at the state level, since Iran's government unlikely wanted to escalate, but at the missile, that's a different question/answer.

This isn't that different than any confrontations we've had with Russia, China, or North Korea; while the state government has certain desires and calculations, one can never be absolutely certain that every individual below the state level will toe the party line.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

All ads-b transponders on the aircraft stopped transmitting simultaneously to the second 2 minutes after takeoff while the plane was still in the air and climbing. News indicates that Iran has already bulldozed the crash site after removing debris using heavy machinery the day of the crash. It is not known if any investigation of the debris was made in-situ. There are some stories that Iran claims the flight data boxes are damaged. Flight data boxes possibly being sent to Russia and not Ukraine as Iran does not want the US to examine the flight recorders. Iran may also be having a power struggle internally as IRGC (Republican Guards) members are reported to being arrested.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

"...could have been accidental..."

Foreseeing the possibility of all this, I carefully wrote "accidental / negligent", in a vain attempt to preempt causing a tedious discussion about the semantics.

If anyone else used the word "accidentally" by itself, it would be reasonable to interpret it in the broadest meaning.

I very much doubt that anyone intended to shoot down a civilian airliner.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

accident - an unfortunate incident that happens unexpectedly and unintentionally, typically resulting in damage or injury.

I will stand by what I posted. I highly doubt the missile managing to get into the air was an accident, because I highly doubt the missile launched unexpectedly or unintentionally.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

There have been loads of inadvertent launches in the last 60 odd years by mill all round the world.

I have first hand seen an inadvertent launch of a rapier missile by UK mil on Benbecular Ranges. Ended up in the bottom of a trench with a Brigadier on top of me. 3 gunners unfortunately badly burned because they were reloading the rail on the other side when it went off.

There are plenty of missiles come off the rails of aircraft both in the air and on the ground.

In fact they are still looking for a live AMRAAM which was released over Estonia in 2018 by a Spanish Eurofighter.

And a mate of a mate was finished flying Harrier after not flipping the trigger cover over after doing a strafing run on a range and pulled up and accidently fired a 1 second burst with a nose pitch up of 10 degrees pointing towards Ireland. Spent a very stressed week waiting for any casualty reports and they calculated the canon rounds had gone across the whole of the UK and splashed in the Irish sea. He left Harrier and had a successful career on the Tornado dropping bombs.

And when I was up instructing in Inverness it was a regular occurrence that practise bombs for the Tain range were dropped outside the range. "Lossie radar mark my position tell the boys to go and look there" "errr standby" change of voice from a child to an adult "thank you sir!" crate of beer turns up the next week at the flying school with a student with a thankyou card with nothing written in it. Nothing more said about it.

Quick google search for accidental missile launch shows Taiwan taking out a fishing boat with a carrier killer in 2016.

At least the Iranians have admitted what's happened and the family's can have some closure without years of spouting.



RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

One of those wretched things that happens when nobody's quite certain whether they're pretending that they're at war, or pretending that they're not at war.

You'd like to think that the level of risk depends on the ratio of professionalism to zeal within the force whose operator is holding the trigger - I don't know if anyone's done the analysis to see whether that theory holds true.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Iran, the US, the airline, all share some blames.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

2
As long as blame is being attached, Iran shot, the plane was made in the US, the airline was Ukrainian...but Russia made the missiles, and Canada, Ukraine, France and some other countries allowed their citizens to be in Iran. A stretch all around, don't you think? The shooter is the fellow.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Hokie , why stop there?? All the aluminum, copper and other metals were mined somewhere.. WE miners get blamed for so much else, we might as well take some of the blame here.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

hokie66,

I fault the US and the airline is because 1) the US took out a foreign leader (a bad guy) by murder, and continued to openly threaten it's enemy (Iran) for further military actions, causing escalated tension in the region; 2) the airline's decision to flight "as usual" at an unusual time was a gravely move without caution.

I agree, Iran-US problem is the word's problem.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Retired, this thread is becoming a bit political and we all know that we cant change other persons beliefs. Having said that , I am no admirer of Mr Trump or Conrad Black but IMO the attached has a lot of validity. And I cant help but feel that if Chamberlain had a stronger backbone inn 1938 ..... something like the backbone Thatcher showed in 1982, then the 1940s might have been an improvement over what actually occurred. There's absolutely no point in having a military if you're not prepared to use force when necessary.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-the-...

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I’ve also long held the opinion that Chamberlain was wrong in 1938. But reading I’ve been doing lately leads me the believe that Britain was far better prepared for the air war over southern England in 1940-41 than they would have been a year or two earlier.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

miningman,

Sorry to make this thread political, but...

I used to be a demarcate leaning person, voted for Clinton, Obama, then came 2016, Mr. Trump. I am still his supporter, but somehow I don't like the US's movement on Granada, Panama, Iraq, now Iran. How about make moves on Russia and China? This imbalance in treatment encourages countries like North Korea, Iran (China, Pakistan, India, Israel in earlier dates) to compete for nukes under the faulty claim "to stop the aggressiveness of American Imperialism". And other world powers gladly to provide support for their own country's gain. Yes, strong hand sometimes is necessary for long term good. But in the US the President changes hands every 4-8 years, very difficult to maintain consistent foreign policies...sad.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I wouldn't be surprised if all of the people on the aircraft held Iranian passports or could do due grandparents apart from the crew.

Its a pretty regular pax mix going to Kiev to link with that flight on all that fly into Kiev.

Anyway it seems I was wrong and it was an intended release. Which makes it all the harder for those of us that fly civilian aircraft.

As the previous poster says its just plain sad that life is wasted.

On a note I have never worked there but people I know that have say that Iran is a lovely place with lovely warm people who go out of their way to be helpful and friendly. The authorities are not so warm but the locals that you interact with are just plain nice.

Anyway to put some faces to those that are not with us anymore.

Here is the Ukrainian crew of the aircraft.



May they rest in Peace.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

4
We won't get anywhere with the political side of this.

There is a difficult engineering problem to solve, that we can look at, and our talents (as engineers, not diplomats) are better suited to dealing with.
  • How does one conduct an investigation with integrity when actions have been taken to undermine the investigation?
  • How does an investigator communicate the value of examining wreckage to persons in power that would rather bury it?
  • Are the investigators themselves facing risks when they pursue an investigation of this kind?
  • Will the world at large (or more to the point, the families of the victims) accept the results of any investigation possible now?
Questions like these and more are what concern me the most.

As for the state of the wreckage:
  • The debris has already been removed from the site.
  • The crash site has not been closed or isolated.
  • The FDR and CVR have been found but have not been protected.
  • The FDR and CVR may or may not be turned over to competent authorities.
And as for investigating the decision to fire:
  • Who actually gave the command?
  • Was a human decision actually made?
  • Were safeguards removed from the launch system?
  • Did the operator have adequate training?
  • How was the target identified?
  • How do revolutionary guard installations distinguish civilian targets?
  • Did the delayed take-off confuse the identification?
  • How do airports, airlines, military, and revolutionary guard communicate in Iran?
And, of course... "What else are they lying about?"

And on the Ukrainian airline's side:
  • Did the airline know that the US and Iran had started shooting at each other?
  • If they knew, did they do a threat assessment?
  • Did the aircraft fly a normal departure route?
  • Do airliners require special equipment to maintain friendly IDENT in Iranian airspace?
  • Was the airliner's ADS-B working properly at the time?
I figure about half of my questions will never be answered.
I don't think it's safe for anyone to be flying anything over Iran right now, nor will be for the near future.
And yet - there are dozens of Canadians in a desperate rush to get to Iran to investigate, to grieve, to put the pieces of their lives back together.
The situation is still dangerous, and may be getting even more dangerous soon.

www.sparweb.ca

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

I do so much grieve all these people, their relatives, friends. My sincerest condolences to them.

To find out, what happened and how to prevent something similar:

Put faces to Sparwebs (& others) questions, form a team which is not shy to stand up out.
Demand competent and involved partners in the investigation.
Make it public, all of it.
Question everything and everyone, no frills for no one.
Anything hindering, anyone hindering: Make that public, and ask the question loudly.

Roland Heilmann

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote:

•How does one conduct an investigation with integrity when actions have been taken to undermine the investigation?

Good luck with that, in most of the world any attempt to deviate from the official story results in your disappearance and/or reeducation.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

The Ukrainians are pretty much the experts for this sort of thing in Europe along with the Dutch.

Its not been that long since the KLM was shot down over Ukrainian territory.

And to be honest the situation in Ukraine just now is not that dissimilar to Iran. Plenty of bullets go down the range every day.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Not sure I follow that line of reasoning; I think Iran's physical territory hasn't been in an air war since the elder Bush's administration. There have been air incursions by US spy planes, but that's pretty much it. I think the Iranians pretty much know what a B2 might, or might not, look like on radar by now, and a 737 isn't even a remotely close match, particularly if its transponders were working correctly, which the Iranians haven't used as an excuse.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

The plane was hit within 2 minutes of leaving the Tehran Imam Khomeini airport. Flights had been departing regularly from the airport since 1:30 AM. Flight 752 was the 10th flight to depart that morning, and did so at 6:12:47 AM, only 20 later than the previous plane that morning. It only reached 4,620 ft ground altitude before ADS-B transmissions stopped.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/10/wor...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_Internationa...

Why did the missile battery just make a mistake with that one plane?

Given that the plane was in the air about 2 minutes (by ADS-B data), it had to clear local radar clutter to be detected (a few seconds). A possible 'target' had to be identified by the missile crew friend/foe identification procedures needed to be 'incorrectly' followed (several seconds), the missile had to radar-lock and be fired (probably a couple seconds) and the missile had to accelerate, close the distance, and explode (several seconds to a minute).

How did the missile battery manage to launch and hit the plane in the available time?

It seems to me that the missile crew was lock/loaded/ready, and was only waiting for the plane to clear ground radar clutter.

After 1-1/2 hours, planes began departing Tehran Imam Khomeini airport again. A total of 19 would depart that day.

Now, I know nothing on the acceleration of Russian made Tor missiles. I'm not sure of the typical climbing speed of 737-800 planes fully loaded (info indicates pilots delayed takeoff to offload luggage to get within weight limits). I'm not sure of the exact distance from the end of the runway to the missile battery location (some news article indicate 12 km). But this sure sounds like a college engineering question of "If a train leaves the station at x speed, and a second train departs later at y speed, when will they meet".

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Alistair,

That wasn't a KLM plane, it was a Malaysian Airlines B777. A majority of the passengers were Dutch.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

The events of the investigation have moved quickly in the past few days, but we must be prepared for the pace to slow down drastically, soon.
The Ukrainian investigators were on the site only a day later and examining the wreckage. They were well prepared for what they would see given their recent experience with MH17. The lead investigator says they kept their opinions close to their chest for another day or so. No sense in giving the Iranians any opportunity to seize the evidence and quash the investigators' statements. They used the time to get their photographs and notes out of Iran and into the hands of Ukrainian investigators in Kyiv, where they could collect and corroborate the information. Then this was quickly shared with the other involved countries (USA, Canada, UK).

Given the very tense situation, and what could be at stake if one person says or does the wrong thing, I admire what the Ukrainian investigators have done already.

Here is a CBC article based on an interview with Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.

A photo taken of a piece of skin below. The location on the plane wasn't specified. It looks flat-ish with only a few rivets which only rules out parts like the wing leading edges, nose, windshield framework or door frames. It could be from any other place on the plane. The holes on the left are open rivet holes, which may have been drilled out to disassemble the part for examination, or they were torn apart in the crash and the remains of the rivets have fallen out. The rivet holes are slightly out of round but that could be either a drill-out or tear-out that did it. On the right obviously those holes were made by debris that punctured the skin, possibly traveling at an oblique angle, too. Other evidence makes is pretty obvious that this component came in contact with the ground (scraping, dirt) so I would expect a diligent investigator would check that the puncture holes could not have been caused by something it struck on the ground.

But then, the debris was moved by the Iranians. This is the perfect example of why debris must be left in place until it can be examined. This kind of evidence is obscured when the debris is moved: damaged caused by the accident VS. damaged caused by impact with the ground. Today, there's no question it was caused by explosive debris, but now only because the Iranians admitted to it. Imagine how hard it would be to convince an Iranian authority (if the admission had not been made) and they claimed that the debris had landed on sharp objects on the ground?

www.sparweb.ca

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

hokie your quiet correct my only excuse was a 11 hour shift of four sectors with a "fresh meat" 400 hour first officer.

It was of course Malaysian Airlines.

The first missile blast was focused under the cockpit which would have taken out all the Avionics bay and batteries and power relays. As such the aircraft would have continued on it flight path uncontrolled. The second missile took the fuel tanks out and caused the explosion.

Its normal for 2 missiles to be fired at every target.

That phase of flight the plane would have been doing about 210 knts and climbing at 2500ft -> 3500 ft /min.

These missiles are 15kg warhead and travel at Mach 2.8 max and pull 30g. Targets max speed mach 2. So a heavy 737 climbing out low level is a sitting duck taken out with a claymore.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Obviously, some Iranians weren't looking to preserve the truth, particularly since they likely suspected, or knew, that their own missile shot down the plane, probably as early as last Thursday, even as their government was denying the facts. It was probably the video from last Thursday that made it impossible to continue the deception, since the video clearly showed an apparent missile strike in the right area of Iran at the right time.

The holes don't look like conventional low-speed punctures, since there would be bent edges on the holes; they look more like impact holes from molten metal or extremely high velocity fragments. The Tor missile that took down the plane flies well over Mach 2, but it's unclear whether the warhead was set for contact or proximity. If the latter, the shrapnel from the explosion would have been going even faster.

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RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Its extremely rare that AA is contact fused. Most of them are a lump of explosive surrounded by a formed hard metal which is designed to fragment into shrapnel.

So it explodes and a shotgun blast of shrapnel does the damage. The Explosions you see are when the fuel tanks get shredded and the fuel leaks out and then ignites. Which is why the aircraft only exploded when the second missile hit.

About the only aircraft that might have survived 2 hits by a TOR is the A10 warthog with its titanium bath round the pilot and it multiple redundancy control runs and systems. A civi airliner has zero chance of surviving.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

(OP)
The guff they came up with about it being off course and looked like a drone or a missile or the operator only having 10 seconds to decide is laughable if it hadn't killed so many innocent people.

The plane barely moved off the runway orientation before they pulled the trigger.

Something went very seriously wrong but now everyone is in serious BYA mode so I doubt we will ever find out.

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

RE: Ukraine airline crash Tehran

Quote (Alistair Heaton)

Its extremely rare that AA is contact fused. Most of them are a lump of explosive surrounded by a formed hard metal which is designed to fragment into shrapnel.

So it explodes and a shotgun blast of shrapnel does the damage. The Explosions you see are when the fuel tanks get shredded and the fuel leaks out and then ignites. Which is why the aircraft only exploded when the second missile hit.

I remember reading about the MH17 downing when the report came out. Something that always stuck in my head was that the warhead in that missile had bow-tie or hourglass shaped shrapnel tightly packed into the warhead.

Just looked it up - 9N314M warhead.

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