The bearing ID is actually probably 70mm - am I right?
If so, that means it might be possible to design the shaft so that it is nowhere smaller than 2 3/4".
But I doubt it - how is the bearing retained ? If you use a locknut, the threads will be smaller, and you'll end up with about 2 5/8" probably - depending on the locknut,or snap ring groove, relief groove etc.
Since I don't have enough detail to give you a definitive answer to this problem, and the devil is in the details, I am going to give you a number of different answers, which involve various worst case scenarios.
1. Assuming a plain tube, 2.75" OD (Taking you at your word), 2" ID, 4340 with a yield shear stress of 70000 lbf/in^2 - with a static torque application - no shock.
For static torque failure of ductile materials, you can normally ignore stress concentrations.
For local yielding at the extreme fiber :
Rearranging my formula a bit,
T = stress*pi*(Do^4-Di^4)/(16*Do)
T = 70000*pi*(2.75^4-2^4)/(16*2.75) = 205874 lbf.in
= 17156 lbf.ft
For complete failure across the whole section, it will take more torque than this. The multiplier for this is the "Limit factor" (L). (see Peterson, "stress concentartion factors" for example)
L = 4/3*(1- (Di/Do)^3)/(1-(Di/Do)^4)
= 4/3*(1 - (2/2.75)^3)/(1-(2/2.75)^4) = 1.14
Torque for complete failure = 19558 lbf.ft
2. For cyclic loading conditions, fatigue must be taken into account. There is likely to be a stress concentration factor of at least 3, but it depends on your exact geometry, which I do not know. For infinite life, we must stay below the endurance limit. According to my "atlas of fatigue curves", for 4340 (150000 lb/in^2 tensile strength), assuming we alternate between 0 and 29000 lb/in^2 shear stress, with a stress concentration notch of 3.3, we would have a life of about 10^7 cycles.
At that stress range, this corresponds to an alternating torque of
T = 29000*pi*(2.75^4-2^4)/(16*2.75) = 85290 lbf.in
= 7108 lbf.ft
(ie the torque alternates between 0 and 7108 lbf ft)
I don't know what this component is, but it sounds as though it has something to do with oil drilling, and probably rotates. At 60 rpm in continuous operation, 10^7 cycles means it would last about 115 days. In practice, I expect your torque will either be constant or will alternate through a much smaller range than this, and then it would last a lot longer.
We therefore can say that your component is likely to be able to withstand anywhere from about 7000 to 19000 lbf.ft of torque, depending on the conditions, and on what is meant by "failure".
So you see, it is impossible to give a definitive answer without a lot more detail, such as :
1. Exact heat treatment
2. Exact part geometry, groove details if any etc
3. Exact details of how the torque will vary over time - if at all.
Regarding the splines, if the parts are perfectly concentric, it should be possible to design the spline such that it has as much shear strength as the shaft, and such that it does not introduce a worse stress concentration than those already present - assuming that the root diameter can be made greater than 2.75". It is normal in such cases as this to use the design rule of thumb that half the spline teeth carry the shear load.
If the spline is there to cater for significant angular misalignment, then this will affect the spline geometry and all bets are off - it depends on how much angular misalignment you are trying to accomodate.
The rest of the design can be made a lot stronger than this shaft. If the shaft can be made strong enough for what you need - then the design is feasible.
I hope this has given you some idea of how strong your part will be.