The Theta j-c that is published in component data sheets is generally not an accurate value for the thermal resistance between the juction and the BOTTOM side of the package. You mention a solder pad on the bottom of the package. Theta j-c is usually measured as the thermal resistance between the die and the TOP side of the package. Unless all the sides of the package are the same temperature, which is highly unlikely in a package design like the one you describe, then Theta j-c is not a good value to use for estimated junction temperature from the case temperature on the bottom of the package.
I recommend FLOPACK for getting a detailed model of the package, or, even better, ask the component vendor to tell you the value of Theta j-b, the thermal resistance between the junction and the board. Sometimes they know that value, especially if the package is designed to have a good thermal path into the board through a solder pad.
Good luck with that. Your question is the most common in thermal analysis of electronic components, and there is no good easy answer to it yet.