I'm not an expert (then again, neither is anyone else, especially the people who call themselves "experts").
But I've been into this for 10 years or so, as a hobby - starting when I was checking into hydrology throughout the 20th century.
Visigoth asks:
1) What is the energy falling on the area of the globe from the sun considering all wavelengths? What is the variability vs time (std. dev, pdf shape etc.)
The energy is pretty constant - the variable is the particle flow. Here is a basic, mostly correct, analysis:
2) What is the reflectance (or whatever the proper term is) that determines what portion of the energy makes it inside the volume of our atmosphere. Again, the variance question.
It almost all makes it inside the atmosphere. About 30% is immediately reflected back. That is the definition of albedo, which on Earth is about 0.3.
3) What is the retransmission energy, it's variance and the reflectance back again with it's variance (high frequencies turned into heat and perhaps reflected back)
The same as the incoming, except what is now being taken in by the oceans.
4) What is the natural heat (any energy) generation, forest fires, natural gas burning, and even geothermal and again the variance stuff.
It all comes, originally, from the sun.
5) How does the man made energy production relate to item #1 times item #2. I am guessing it is itty-bitty and no one is arguing that point.
Yes, man made energy (actually recovered) is extremely small - discountable.
6) What is the man made induced variation on the internal reflectance? I think this is the key issue being considered as the only possible man made impact that could possibly impact global temperature changes. This is an awful egotistical view, but the engineering part should have a nominal estimate and a range and probability. The probability tails should be straightforward to understand. This has nothing to do with measured temp. trajectories.
Right. The big flaw in the "greenhouse effect" theory is that the great majority of energy transporting back up through the troposphere is via convection - air masses moving up and down. The "greenhouse effect" has no effect on convection.
7) What is the man made affect on the reflectance in #2, this could make us go cold if in the wrong direction.
True, but the primary anthropogenic effect now is stripping of vegetation through overuse, which decreases the heat turned to flora and increases the sensible heat.
8) If we start to warm up, is there a possible overcompensation mechanism that could cause us to flash over into the next ice age?
It could, but there are many short term (geologically) negative feedbacks keeping us in this climatic regime - not the least of which is floral response to increased temperature, which increases CO2 by way of the warm coke effect out of the oceans, but also arctic sea ice which regulates the sink of CO2 into the ocean - and that increasing temperature increases evaporation, and what goes up must come down, so precipitation increases.
Are these the key points and does anyone have an analysis they could share o point to?
Here are some links:
![[thumbsdown]](/data/assets/smilies/thumbsdown.gif "[thumbsdown] [thumbsdown]")
