May I'm missing something here, but, as I see this, it is not all shear friction with the shear key.
For taller walls, I usually do spec a 2X4 or 6 key in the top of the footing. The intent is to provide a lateral bearing surface to assist in resisting the lateral load transfer of the stem wall loads to the footing. In order to generate this, the construction joint plane extending horizontally thru the 2X key will have to resist from being breached or sheared. In that scenario lies the shear resistance. An alternate to this would be to provide a shear key in the footing the width of the stem wall and about 1.5 to 2" deep, depending on the force to be resisted.
And, yes fattdad, this is not a geotechnical problem. It is structural.
Mike McCann
McCann Engineering