Hey Nik,
Definitely put the most fouling fluid (water) on the tubes. High tubewall temperatures make scaling and fouling very likely on the water side. If you make the tubes an even number of passes, then you can use a floating head design (or even fixed tubesheet) in order to get straight tubes to clean. Include chemical cleaning nozzles to give that option also.
Although it doesn't apply to your case, a secondary consideration for chosing side is to put the lowest allowable pressure drop on the shell. This gives flexibility in chosing baffle spacing to meet allowable pressure drop criteria. The flowrate itself is rarely a consideration for chosing sides in my experience.
Is there any chance you can heat your water by direct steam injection. It could be a very problem free option in some cases- not sure of your process application.
best wishes,
sshep