Two problems then: For your own design, you know your own weight and metabolism, and so should use the best (conservative) value: At only 155 lbs, but eating more calories per day than the "average person", I'd have to account for more heat energy than "the generic average." You'll want (need!) to be comfortable under "worst case" riding conditions, but able to proceed without duress when temperatures rise (later in the afternoon for example) or fall - after a storm or shower or after dark.
Second: You're in the wind (very important!) and in outdoors conditions for specific periods of time directly exposed to the weather and cold, NOT the "average" generic TV-watching couch potatoe doing average "nothings" for an average 24 hour day indoors. Balancing that exposure to wind and temperature is the fact that you will be sitting/riding, not running the Boston Marathon.
Allow some testing. Some adjustment. A throttle valve. Or two. A zipper.
Be safe.