We have found what may be the cause of the collapse!
I apologize in advance if this post seems disorganized, as it was cobbled together from a few different discussions.
Today I watched this video,
"HARD ROCK COLLAPSE ULTIMATE LOAD PATH FAILURE 15TH..." Watch that video at about 30:40 to see the initiation of collapse in the area of the curved Rampart St side of the building. (I love this 'new' pool view of the start of failure that came out last week. I kept wondering when we would see security camera footage.) The rest of the video discusses the location of failure in non-technical language.
Someone shared this excellent analysis of the loading and framing at the 15th Floor privately with the person who produced that video:
In commentary for that video, a user named Bobby posted this 3D view of the framing above the 13th Floor that is very helpful:
I had tried to sort out this framing, but I just didn't have the patience for it. There are so many different column lines and rows. As on the first link above, it's obvious that on the Rampart St side, the columns at the 15th Floor do not line up to directly support the columns from the 16th floor. It's also pretty obvious that the beams at the 15th floor are not big enough to act effectively as girders to support the loads from the 16th Floor, 17th Floor, and the "Roof". (I couldn't easily find the dimension from Col Line HH to JJ on the 15th Framing Plan, so I gave up and made a reasonable assumption.) There is so much variation in the column lines and spans that it seems that each and every beam would have to be evaluated separately. (In the days of hand calculations, we would have made the spans and framing more uniform.)
As a start, I checked one beam on the 15th Floor, the beam between BB & JJ at Col Row 10.2. The following is what I found.
(Note that it's possible that the beams in Col Row BB and JJ are worse than the beam from BB-JJ, but I didn't have time to check that yet.)
My findings and assumptions are:
(1) Did NOT analyze as composite concrete and steel beams, as MOJOJOHN says the studs are inadequate for composite action.
By the way, these beams are not composite steel beams. I checked a few and found that the studs were not
sufficient for composite action. They merely attach the slabs through the deck to the beams.
(2) I looked at the loading on the W16x26, loaded at approximately 10'-6" from Col Row JJ, with loads from Floors 16, 17, and Roof above via the column I will call "FF.1"
(3) At Floor 16 (and 17) in Col Row FF.1, the W10x19 carries the floor load of concrete and steel decking (assumed 45 psf and 53 psf, respectively, may be off by a few pounds) plus the design live load of 40 psf (no live load reduction). These beams frame into the Column FF.1. These beams carry almost 2000 lbs per foot from spans that are 27'-9 1/2" and 26'-2 7/8", for a total of 3862 lb/ft. Assumed that construction materials in place on October 12th are approximately equal to design loads, or that the floors would have eventually seen AT LEAST these design loads.
(4) The column FF.1 at Row 10.2 carries a total design load of 60.6 k from Floor 16, 60.6 k from Floor 17, and 52.1 k from the "Roof" for a total of 173.3k.
(5) With the 40 psf applied load on the 16th Floor & 17th Floor and 20 psf for the roof (I remember seeing a higher design load for at least parts of the roof, but I cannot find that information today; in any case, this was a part of the roof that was blocked off from guests' use), the W16x26 has the following Critical Stress Ratios:
Bending 1.342
Combined Bending 1.477
Shear 1.855
I haven't checked the bolts for this beam's connections yet.
This would indicate that the poor W16x26 will fail in shear, though as I mentioned above, the connection of the beam in Col Row BB at the Rampart St facade, also a W16x26, almost certainly failed first, as it carries load from TWO of these W16s.
Of course, we still have to say, "This was only the Permit Set. The For Construction drawings in use may have been revised", but I think the area identified is the initiation of failure for this building.
I can scan and send my sketches and notes for this analysis later. I suppose it's only fair to redo these calculations with the appropriate Live Load Reduction, but I don't have time to do that now.
What do you guys think?