before discussing effective width, i'd challenge your assumption that the skin carries the "vertical" load of the stringer; assuming that vertical means out-of-plane. skins and stringers react in-plane loads (pretty much only, 'cause that's their stiffest direction).
if "vertical" means axial, i'd assume that the stringer end-load is reacted by the entire skin bay, rather than visualising an effective piece of skin continuing the stringer. the reason is that the skin panel will probably buckle through this unsupported skin.
i assume you're using FE results. you'll have stresses in the skin panels (axial, transverse, and shear) and endload in the stringer. i'd assume that the endload in the stringer is sheared into the skin bays on either side of the stringer, increasing their shear stresses. you could combine the two bays together, apply the average shear stress (including the component from the stringer) and compare to the buckling allowable of the combined panel; i think this is conservative (possibly overly so) but i think it represents the scenario of a buckle across the unstiffened skin the best.
in my experience stringer run-outs extend only slightly into their last bay ... which would naturally lead into the above analysis.
of course, all this is with a static stress analysis view. a DT view would be different, almost the direct opposite (just to be conservative). i'd analyze the last rivet, allowing it to transfer almost as much load as it can; with some concern over secondary bending of the skin.
of course, the stringer run-out is very carefully tapered; the stringer cap is first tapered, then gradually the stringer web, and in parallel the skin thickness is increased.