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We're about to be hit with a solar storm...
4

We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

(OP)
While this is not an engineering disaster, at least not yet, there could be issues related to poorly protected infrastructure:

World told to brace for 'severe geomagnetic storm' today - the first in nearly 20 years - which could bring chaos to mobile phone networks, GPS satellites and power grids

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13...

An excerpt from the above item:

A rare and powerful solar storm may occur in outer space today which could wreak havoc on earth, officials have warned – the first in nearly 20 years if it happens.

At least five streams of plasma, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are heading toward Earth, prompting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to issue a severe geomagnetic storm watch for Friday into the weekend.

This is the first such alert aired since 2005 when Earth was hit with the highest dose of radiation in a half-century.


Note that yesterday I managed to take the photo below from our backyard. It clearly shows one of the sunspots from where these coronal masses were ejected:


May 2024 (Sony a6500, 400mm (X2))

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Man the escape vehicles. tiefighter

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

On a positive note, the aurora should be great!

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

There are aviation warnings about it.

I have 4 days off :D

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

(OP)
Speaking of auroras, the picture below was taken this evening by our youngest son, who lives near Clare, Michigan:


May 2024 (Apple iPhone 14 Pro Max)

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Very nice. Not the typical green tones at all.

What's the aviation protocol? Business as usual? Lead lined undies?

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Well a thing called raim will stop GPS type stuff but that's just normal these days with jamming.

But pretty much ops normal until things start crashing

The computer and Comms systems on the ground are more likely to have an issue stopping flight than the aircraft.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Any reports of infrastructure outages in the USA?

Europe nothing reported and it's on again tonight

The astronauts must be getting a hellish dose

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

As seen in Las Canarias from Mt Tiede at the center 3708m.
Infortunately we down at lower elevations were and still are below low level overcast clouds.



--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

The sky was lit up all night, here. 51N, 113.5W
I set my camera to take pictures all night, every 10 seconds. I'm still unloading its memory card!

There were some fantastic shows in Australia - which are very rare, being ions, more massive and fewer, not the electrons that sleet down on the northern hemisphere. Go check out the youtube videos from down-under.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Angel at FL1200

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

I can't find any information about when to look. Is this going to be all night or 3am. I'm in the middle of California?

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

It's a continuous, though varying in intensity, cascade of charged particles, day and night.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

We got clouded out last night. Darn marine layer.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

I live near a city and can barely make out the Big Dipper. The star where the handle meets the dipper is not visible to me.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Too overcast in Milwaukee this weekend, just some glowing clouds.
This will affect UHF radio the most.
Digital stuff all has error correction in it.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
P.E. Metallurgy, consulting work welcomed

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

According to the maps, we were not supposed to see anything, so I went to bed. The photos from Tahoe are amazing. I should have taken a midnight drive.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

(OP)

Quote (GregLocock)


Quite why the lede photo is a sprayer when they are talking about planting is just one of those journo things.

It's file footage, probably supplied but John Deere, which in reality, if the request was for this specific article, they should have done a better job.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Agricultural implements use the Russian version of GPS with multiple antennae places around the field. The USA version does not allow a high enough level of precision for row crop work.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

USA gps will do real time accuracy in cm, if using the enhanced "multiple antenna system" probably just the same RTK (real time kinetics) equipment addition. Without RTK, nobody's system works better than a few meters, due mostly to differing atmospheric/space conditions from day to day.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

There is other systems out there that make standard USA GPS more accurate SBAS is the one we use in aviation.

The European system GALILAEO is way more accurate than the USA GPS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_(satellite_n...) and is what the farmers use over here

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Most of the increase in accuracy features are differences not so much in the satellite equipment, but what has been set by each system operator as being within the free package vs what is available as extra paid or specially authorised user service level and the receiver's one uses. A dual band receiver is important.

Satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS) corresponds to the FAA's WAAS system, Wide Area Agumentation System, and US defense Dept WAGE system, European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS), operated by the ESSP (on behalf of EU's GSA), The commercial StarFire navigation system, operated by John Deere and C-Nav Positioning Solutions (Oceaneering), plus others.

These are all wide-area differential GPS based positioning systems that enhance the basic raw satellite positioning capability.

A 3D fix is not a sufficient criterion of quality. The PDOP is an indicator of the precision of the GPS measure (Position Dilution of Precision). If it is higher than 6, you can consider that you do not have a good fix. Under 4, it is good enough for OSM tracking. Less than 2 means you have a very good fix. The quality of the DOP depends on the GPS capacity of correcting the satellite's signal, which usually depends on satellites being dispersed. You can have a good DOP with only a 2D fix.

https://wiki.openstreetmap.org/wiki/Accuracy_of_GN...


--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

We use the SBAS for 3D approach guidance for GNSS approaches.

They were rolling a load of them out and getting rid of the ground systems such as ILS. The amount of GPS jamming going on these days I think they are rethinking this idea.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Quote (Alistair)

They were rolling a load of them out and getting rid of the ground systems such as ILS. The amount of GPS jamming going on these days I think they are rethinking this idea.

FAA is indeed starting to backtrack on their move away from ground systems. They are also making an effort to maintain and improve VOR/VORTAC system, presumably to protect against widespread GPS outage.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

That might actually be a good idea. I still have my trusty, no batteries required, Pickett.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

DME/DME triangulation with INS is getting used alot these days.

Must admit I am keeping the GNSS page open during the cruise as soon as the sats drop below 4 it gets turned off.

The spoofing is a different issue and challenge to spot. I just watch for jumps in xtrax error to INS.

Unfortunately the pax maps in the back are linked to another GPS receiver. So an occasional PA of don't worry we are going to Germany not Iceland needs done.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

I used to try the poor pilot's DME. DME from a VOR only.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Galilaio has only been legal in the USA since 2018.

And alot of US products still don't have the chipsets for it.

They claim for the free version of it you can get 20cm horizontal and 40cm vertical resolution.

Certainly it seems my car sat nav is way more responsive and accurate using it than my Garmin GPS.

All cars in Europe need to have it these days as a lead up to being taxed by it I presume.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Oh come on. It's only for emergency location purposes. smile

When I'd get lost, I worked out that if you turn 90° off an inbound radial and fly until the radial changed by 10°, I could divide my airspeed by 10 and get a (no wind) DME within 5% of actual. That east Texas Big Piney Wood was huge. One pine tree looks just like the next one.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

its linked to so many safety systems and other things.

Sometimes the sensors get locked out with a corrupt almanac which needs a tech with a laptop to sort out after jamming a spoofing.

Hence my preference to turn them off before all the lights and whistles start going off.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

And yes your old school method does work. So does looking out the window and a stop watch on a heading.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

The multi antenna version of GPS (or GNSS if using more than 1 consellation) is most often used with one (sometimes more than one) fixed station(s) and any number of rovers (could be a tractor or dozer control, or a surveyors field unit). Usually when the fixed unit is within 10 km of the rover, cm accuracy from post processing is common.
https://www.e-educuation.psu.edu/geog862/node/1725

Autonomous solution of the reference station moved around several feet during the storm. It is likely that under these conditions post processing solutions would be divergent due to signal travel path distortion.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

That's what the farmers are shooting for. 20 years ago they were using systems that could drive the tractor off and on the trailer.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Quote (Greg)

Quad constellation GNSS receivers are claimed to have an accuracy of 2 cm.

Our Trimble GNSS R8 rovers are good for about 0.03' (~1 cm) horizontal and 0.1' (~3 cm) vertical accuracy, depending on several factors.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Quote (Alistair Heaton)

Must admit I am keeping the GNSS page open during the cruise as soon as the sats drop below 4 it gets turned off.

Where the heck do you fly, the arctic circle? I'm pretty remote but I've never seen less than 7 sats (most of our Dash 8's use Universal 1Ew and the Beech are always full of Garmin GTNs).

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Its the jamming and spoofing that we are watching for, before Ukraine I didn't.

I can post up the position pages for people to have a look at if you want on a typical flight and one when we are getting jammed.

Turkey, Cyprus, Israel all are pretty much jammed and within 200 NM of the Russian Border is also extensively jammed.

The spoofing seems to be around St Peterburg and a few other places

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...



That to this

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

(OP)
It ain't over yet...

Scientist warns more powerful solar eruptions could hit Earth in 2025 - and cause the worst geomagnetic storm in 165 years

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13...

An excerpt from the above item:

While Earth mostly succeeded in weathering last weekend's strong solar storm, experts have warned more powerful eruptions could continue to strike until 2025.

A Harvard astrophysicist told DailyMail.com that the sun has not yet reached its 'solar maximum,' the most energetic point of its recurring, 11-year solar cycle, in which greater turbulence raises the sun's total energy output.

That 'maximum' will finally come in the heat of the summer next year: July 2025.

'We could easily get much bigger storms over the next year or two,' Dr. Jonathan McDowell told DailyMail.com.

John R. Baker, P.E. (ret)
Irvine, CA
Siemens PLM:

The secret of life is not finding someone to live with
It's finding someone you can't live without

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Oh, you fly there.

Jamming seems to come from Kaliningrad

Sorry to hijack your thread John. I'll stop.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

I wonder what the astroinertial navigation system on the SR71 would cost today. It sounds like we may need it for commercial aircraft.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

John, I suggest you study "Meltwater Pulse 1a" to get a better understanding of how much influence the Sun has on our climate. There have been times were sea level rise has been 100x faster than it is today and that's within modern human history (less than 12000 years ago).

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Tug we have inertia reference system for nav as well. Which you can see the tab for on the pictures I posted.

They are laser gyro these days. The SR71 inertia nav I suspect needed a forklift to move about.

It was being used as the secondary reference system with the Radio nav being the primary in DME/DME mode in the second jammed photo.

In GNSS mode we get around 0.01 Nm accuracy. In RNAV DME/DME its 0.1 Nm. In VOR/DME mode around 0.5 Nm.

The inertia system has drift so the accuracy changes over time and the latitude we are flying at. It starts more accurate than the RNAV and then gets less than it after about 3 hours.

I will add this to give some confidence that aircraft aren't going to fall out of the sky or start pointing in a strange direction during these events either natural with the solar storms or due human interference.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Push the thermonuclear button
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/if-you-can...

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

I know when that little star lights up it will be during a 2 week long cloudy spate.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

I'm only 20km away from 3708m (12,165ft) elevation. Clouds here are usually lower.
Maybe you could get friendly with, or charter a local IFR airplane owner. Low wing config.

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

I'm not exactly sure if this is a good, or a bad omen. Anybody have an astrologer handy?
Should I start a thread in hobbies?



https://www.yourweather.co.uk/news/trending/a-spec...

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Jupiter in alignment with Mars? Astrology is not my bag, but I seem to recall something about peace guiding the planets and love steering the stars.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Btw I have had so many interesting news items popped up in my news feed which I suspect is liked to this thread and others.

My first thought with the planets aligning was that's going to screw with compass variation...

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Age of Aquarius. Been there. Done that, but I think the world needs a repeat right about now. ☮

--Einstein gave the same test to students every year. When asked why he would do something like that, "Because the answers had changed."

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

Quote (Alistair_Heaton (Mechanical))

My first thought with the planets aligning was that's going to screw with compass variation...

And has been known for how many years in advance, that this happens in this day and age? One thing it does influence the most is weather and climate.

RE: We're about to be hit with a solar storm...

They will know about it.

If they bother to put it into the GPS database who knows.

The ground based systems are referenced magnetic north. And it's mag headings off air traffic.

As everyone will have the same it won't matter.

Maybe slightly off a desired geo track if required.

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