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Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII
15

Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

The last thread got off topic there at the end, but in general, the form of government, and the control it exerts over the populace, makes a difference in energy production, energy usage, pollution, and CO2 emissions. Totalitarian governments can do what the leaders want, and while that theoretically could be a good thing, in practice it's been bad for the people and bad for the environment. Sure, many countries have lower per capita CO2 emissions than the US, but it comes with a much lower standard of living for the populace. Is that correlation, or cause and effect? I think it's obvious it's more than simply a correlation. A higher standard of living requires more, and more reliable, energy per person.

Therefore, it's intellectually dishonest to compare CO2 emissions per capita, while ignoring the associated discrepancies in the standard of living for the people. After all, can't we here agree on a goal of trying to improve well-being of people?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (BridgeSmith)

Therefore, it's intellectually dishonest to compare CO2 emissions per capita, while ignoring the associated discrepancies in the standard of living for the people. After all, can't we here agree on a goal of trying to improve well-being of people?

Keep in mind that there is a LARGE portion of climate alarmists that use the per Capita CO2 issues to assign BLAME to the countries that have emitted CO2. This lines up with their neo-Marxist narrative of victims and oppressors. Their goal is NOT to save the planet. Rather it is to take POWER away from those who have had it (i.e. the countries with high standards of living) by any means necessary.

I'm not saying that all climate science or climate activists have this agenda. But, I'm saying that a large portion of them do. Look at Greta Thunberg. She was protesting the construction of wind farms in Norway. If she really cared about reducing CO2 emissions, she would not have done that. Instead, she was protesting because of some social justice bullshit about indigenous people and caribou herds or such.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
CO2 emissions have become political, and this will likely continue. Climate doesn't care if you are a fascist or a communist... the less we do and the longer we wait, the consequences could be that much greater. We are dealing with huge energy systems that have stored a 'pile of power' in the last couple of decades, and continue to do so.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
I should have added... those with the greater per capita CO2 footprints, in general, are the greater abusers.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

I agree with all of that, JoshPlumSE, but I'm hoping that we here can elevate the discussion above that of the power-hungry and greedy climate alarmism 'leaders' and their useful idiot acolytes, and discuss the real causes and effects of CO2 and the impacts to humanity of imposing limitations to curb CO2 emissions.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

...are the greater abusers

I don't get what you mean by "abusers", I like a warm house in the winter and ac in the summer.

Maybe because I drive an SUV?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote:

Fascist politicians have weaponized CO2 emissions have become political, and this will likely continue.

Fixed it for ya.

Quote:

Their goal is NOT to save the planet. Rather it is to take POWER away from those who have had it

Worth noting is that the politicians pushing the recent green agendas are also responsible for the ongoing attempt to bypass our Constitution to disarm Americans via treaty, and the global minimum tax that is about to begin redistributing our wealth to our enemies.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

Climate doesn't care if you are a fascist or a communist... the less we do and the longer we wait, the consequences could be that much greater.

This isn't necessarily true. There is a very large possibility that our "solutions" to the problem will cause greater harm than the initial problem itself.

In particular, history is absolutely full of such examples in the study of economics. Cases where regulations were added to produce a desired economic outcome, but the regulations only succeeded in making the original problem much much worse.

I should also point out that the political elites that claimed they spoke for "popular demand" of certain policies were frequently at odds with the opinions of the very people they claimed to represent. What I mean is that these people gained political power by misrepresenting the will of the people they were trying to protect. Then the implemented well meaning policies that made the life of the people they claimed to represent significantly worse.

Then, when the people who created these problems are asked about them, their solutions are almost always MORE regulations of the type that make the outcomes so much worse. LOL.

If you don't understand this, you really haven't ever studied the work of Milton Friedman or Thomas Sowell.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

I was listening to a podcast this morning, about the 70s oil crisis.

Prior to the 70s oil was very cheap, and so efficient use of oil was low down the list of design priorities.
Before the oil crisis there was some talk from GreenPeace and the like, concerned about our increased use of oil.
But this was, in my words, little more than "hand wringing".

The 70s crisis brought the finance market place to increase the priority of fuel efficiency, to reduce costs.
Then the "oil glut" of the 80s took much of this pressure away, as the price of petrol fell again.
But some retained an interest in fuel efficiency

Then in the 90s came, and the "story" became "CO2 from FF is a doom beyond comprehension. Repent ! Repent!".
My personal opinion is that in some backroom somewhere Al Gore and others were talking about either ...
a) People (damned people) aren't changing enough, we need a new "bogey man" to scare them into change, or
b) How do we enforce our control on others, to bend them to our will ? I know, create a new "bogey man" ...

I am all for being aware of our multi-faceted impact on the environment, but that is too "soft" a position, without "hard" science supporting the case.
I am looking into our ballooning consumption of FFs (coal and petroleum) and I think it becomes a reasonable question "can we carry on like this ? Should we ??"

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)

Quote (There is a very large possibility that our "solutions" to the problem will cause greater harm than the initial problem itself.)


Correct or incorrect, climate change will proceed on the path provided for it. This is indifferent to whatever 'solutions' we come up with. They may or may not have an effect.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

dik,

The way I read that, you are now saying that we just need to adapt, rather than trying to change the inevitable. That's what many of us have been saying, but you were one in favor of adopting draconian measures that would change our way of life for the worse.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
I suspect strongly that adapting isn't going to be enough. The changes may be too great for simply adapting, except maybe by relocating. I don't know what is on the horizon. We may have to drastically change our lifestyle to make the carbon footprint less of a problem. 'Draconian measures' may be necessary, it depends on how serious the effects of climate change become. If the effects are great, then serious action will have to be undertaken. I don't know or to what extent. We'll have to wait and see what the outcome is, and hope we can still do something about it.

Australia may have an issue... What if your 'wet bulb' temperatures go over 45C... rather than just the dry bulb ones? We have to wait and see. You can then move to Tasmania?

Our current temperature, in Winnipeg, is +3C and it's going up to +8C in two days. Winnipeg's freezing index used to be higher than Moscow's. I know it's just weather, but I cannot recall a January in Winnipeg with such temperatures... we're generally well below zero at this time. My wedding was on February 14, and the temperature that day was -35C. This current weather is exceptional, IMHO.

It's a real dilemma... doing nothing and waiting to see what the outcome will be. Alternatively, addressing the issue and risking the cost for this approach. The outcome which may never occur. I don't have an answer for it. It may be a matter of waiting for a few years to see if there's an increase in climate change effects, and maybe address them at that time. It may also be a matter of waiting for a couple of years after that, and maybe address them at that time.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote:

I suspect strongly that adapting isn't going to be enough. The changes may be too great for simply adapting,

Based on my limited study of human history, I strongly suspect you're greatly underestimating the ability of the human race to adapt to a changing climate, and far overestimating our capacity for foresight of other threats of our own making.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Or the changes may be overwhelming for the majority of them... we just don't know... and it may not be possible to determine/guess who or what may survive.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)

Quote (BoM senior climatologist Rob Smalley says the highest official wet bulb temperature recorded in Australia to date has been 31C.)


With climate change, that number could go up... just don't know...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

It could. That's a fairly useless statement to base your economy on. The fact that it is mere 14 deg different to your scary number is a bit of a nudge.

Meanwhile here's a snapshot of high wet bulb temperatures in Australia. the bits above 27 could also be called a graph of where people don't live


Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
just a caution...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

A caution about something that could happen, without any evidence that it's likely to happen, is just fearmongering.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
No it's just a caution... if the consequences weren't so great... and no one seems to be addressing it in any meaningful way, including our government. Turdeau has a moneypit of a pipeline that he's still pushing taxpayers' money into. Sad

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

No it's just a caution... if the consequences weren't so great... and no one seems to be addressing it in any meaningful way, including our government.

My point is that we need to be MORE cautious about the drastic actions we take. As history has proven that our attempts to "correct" anticipated problems are more likely to cause worse problems than the problems that previously existed.

Examples:
1) Every attempt at rent control causes a reduced housing supply and higher housing costs in the long run.
2) Every attempt to manage wild life populations and the environment at Yellowstone or other nature preserves.
3) Venezuela's attempts to create a more equitable economic system.
4) Cuba's attempts to create a more equitable....
5) The Bolshevik's attempts to....
6) The Mao-ists attempts to....
7) The Nazis attempts to....
8) US government attempts to encourage more poor people owning homes, which led to the financial crisis of 2008.
9) US government (fed, state, and local) shutting down schools for two years when it quickly became clear that young people were at almost zero risk of severe sickness from Covid. This caused much, much, much greater overall harm to school age children and families than no government action would have. You can see and obvious difference in outcomes of private schools that opened earlier compared to public schools.
10) Every attempt that California government makes to reduce the cost of healthcare makes the cost go up.
11) Every attempt that California makes to prevent predatory oil companies from profiteering off of consumers makes the cost of oil go up and makes things much worse for CA consumers when compared to neighboring states.
12) All the current attempts at an equitable justice system (getting rid of cash bail, etc). These are all resulting in a justice system that is failing at every level. Crime is up. Especially in the communities that are supposed to be helped by these policies.
13) The DEI attempts at the university have resulted in FALSE equity. These schools standards have gone way down. Academia is failing because of it. Their most well known "scholars" are being exposed as absolute frauds.
14) Attempts to prohibit alcohol resulted in a huge rise in organized crime. Same thing with bans on various drugs. Keep in mind that the legal drugs (alcohol and tobacco) probably cause more deaths than all the others combined. But, there is almost no violence and crime associated with distribution of alcohol and tobacco.
15) Every attempt to "solve" the homeless problem seems to make it worse and worse. What is really needed is to get rid of all these attempts and just enforce our other laws. Like laws against defecating in the street, breaking into cars, shooting up illicit drugs. et cetera. You enforce these laws and homelessness goes way, way, way down.
16) Any government attempt at price controls in any industry usually results in shortages, long lines or such and is bad for the consumer.

You see what I'm getting at?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

So where does government intervention work? Let's look at examples:

1) Ozone hole and the banning of CFCs. The key here is that this was a very well understood chemical reaction that could be proven. It wasn't a general amorphous theory. It could be easily demonstrated / proven in a lab.

2) Labor laws: I'm thinking specifically about child labor laws in particular. We, as a society, decided that children should be in school, not in coal mines or factories. The society as a whole was behind these laws. There was a clear and narrow definition of what we wanted to do.

3) Things that ONLY government can do: Military, border security (hah?!), infrastructure and such. You might be tempted to include environmental laws in here as well. I would, but only if they are narrow, well understood and focused. Banning DDT world wide (for example) probably kills more people than it helps.... because of how mosquitos in tropical and poor countries spread malaria.


Caveat: This e-mail contains properties known to the state of California to cause cancer, birth defects or other reproductive harm.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

if the consequences weren't so great... and no one seems to be addressing it in any meaningful way,

Perhaps the consequences are not as dire or inevitable as the fearmongering marxists would like us to think they are. People see Al Gore building a mansion on a shore he claims will be underwater in a few years, and they dismiss his warnings for what they are - fearmongering to increase his own wealth.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote:

So where does government intervention work? Let's look at examples:

1) Ozone hole and the banning of CFCs. The key here is that this was a very well understood chemical reaction that could be proven. It wasn't a general amorphous theory. It could be easily demonstrated / proven in a lab.

Except the Ozone hole was already decreasing in size before there was any meaningful reduction in CFCs going into the atmosphere. If what I've read is correct, Ozone levels in the atmosphere are self-regulating - when the radiation blocked by Ozone gets through, it reacts with the Oxygen in the atmosphere to create Ozone. The Ozone hole continues to expand and contract cyclically, as it has probably done for millennia, long before we had satellites to know that it was there.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Well, human activity produces a good amount of ozone as well.

I've always wondered if the climate alarmists took into account the ozone hole issue in their "computer models". Because it seems to me that could be a pretty significant driver of temperatures in the area affected by the ozone hole (which is where the ice cores were being taken).

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote:

Because it seems to me that could be a pretty significant driver of temperatures in the area affected by the ozone hole (which is where the ice cores were being taken).

Yeah, I suppose it could affect the antarctic ice cores...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
The poles are warming faster than other areas of the earth. It used to be that with the drastic temperature differences between the poles and the equator that the polar jet streams used to be pretty stable. This is no longer the case.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
I guess the ice loss is due to it cooling?

"The Antarctic ice sheet's mass has changed over the last decades. Research based on satellite data indicates that between 2002 and 2023, Antarctica shed an average of 150 billion metric tons of ice per year, adding to global sea level rise.

These images, created from GRACE and GRACE-FO data, show changes in Antarctic ice mass since 2002. Orange and red shades indicate areas that lost ice mass, while light blue shades indicate areas that gained ice mass. White indicates areas where there has been very little or no change in ice mass since 2002."

https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/265/vid...

"Temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula
The Antarctic Peninsula, the part of Antarctica furthest from the South Pole, has been warming rapidly, five times faster than the global average. Since 1950, the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed almost 3°C (5.4°F). That's more warming than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere. Overall warmer temperatures along the peninsula are increasing ice melt and have caused several ice shelves to break apart."


https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-chang...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Congratulations. you've changed the subject. You were writing about temperature, not ice loss in your previous note, and have erected a straw man, and shot it down. This is the Straw man fallacy, a common internet technique.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Absolutely not... you stated that the temperatures were getting colder at Antarctica... I suggested that if this were the case, then it's interesting that there has been a huge ice loss accompanying the colder temperatures. The second article stipulates that the temperatures have increased by a factor of four to five. Read the article again, or maybe adjust your glasses. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Red herring to distract? ponder

Sorry tug, the other reference is NASA and seems to confirm UCAR... I think the references and the information are OK. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

NASA reports loss of ice and cooling.

UCAR is claiming warming.

UCAR did not make a correlation between warming and ice loss.

The average temperature is -18°C. Temperature isn't causing the melt.

UCAR states that they exist to funnel money from government (the people's money) to their members. They're like the socialists' poster child of bad capitalists.

Be mindful of your sources' interests.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Must be the area around it is causing it to melt... "Antarctica shed an average of 150 billion metric tons of ice per year", is the result.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Are you saying that the melting is geologic and coming from below?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote:

"Antarctica shed an average of 150 billion metric tons of ice per year"

While that seems like alot, on a global scale it's a negligible amount, thus the reason we haven't heard of any massive change in sea levels as a result. My rough estimate of the sea level rise due to the 3087 Gigatons NASA estimates have been lost over the last 21 years (147 Gigatons/year, from your link) amounts to an average increase in water surface elevation (over the 70% of the earth's water-covered surface) of less than 5/16".

According to Wikipedia, the Antarctic ice sheet weighs 24,380,000 Gigatonnes (26,874,000 Gigatons). So the total estimated percentage loss of over the last 21 years is 0.011%. That's about 9" change in an ice sheet that has an average thickness of over 6200 ft.

Of course, that is all predicated on the accuracy of the estimates of the ice sheet thickness. The top of the ice sheet can be measured by satellite, but how do we really know whether the bottom of the ice sheet is the same as it was 21 years ago? Would we know if there have been density changes in the ice down 4000 or 5000 feet deep into this ice sheet?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

These ice sheets can disappear rapidly. The Cordilleran (northwestern America) ice sheet was estimated to be 1200km (4500ft) thick. It melted in 4000 years. That's more than 1 foot per year.

This type of information leads me to believe that the Grand Canyon did not take millions of years to form but actually formed recently over a few thousand years. The steep walls should be proof of this.

The Great Lakes were also formed during a similarly short geological timeframe by the even thicker Laurentide ice sheet which was 10,500 feet thick. Greenland is all that remains and has an average thickness of 5000 feet.

The Cordilleran and Laurentide melts occured during human history (the melt started 15-20k years ago. Humans thrived during this time.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote:

There are volcanoes under the ice shelf.

So, am I correct in assuming we really have no idea how thick the ice sheet is, so we don't really know how much it's losing or gaining?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Uh, no we have good looking measurements for ice sheet thickness both over water and over the land from satellite surveys,


and we also can estimate how much the elevation has changed



The gray circular blob is where the satellites can't measure.

So, in general not much change but at the fringes it is getting thinner and in some places it gets thicker.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Totally unrelated. You have to compare the correlation of CO2 and temperatures with the 'spike' in CO2 levels, to see where this might take us. It hit +13C in Winnipeg today. It's supposed to be above zero all week. There could be a real down side to this lovely weather.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Unrelated? What caused such drastic change? Winnipeg was under thousands of feet of ice not very long ago and you complain about a week above zero? Why must we correlate everything with CO2 and nothing else?

It's called Indian Summer. It was commonly referenced during the 19th century.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer#:~:t....

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Dik -

I don't know, the alleged 130 meter sea rise during that time seems like a pretty good comparison to the 0.3 meter sea rise that global warming is expected to produce in the next few decades. And, maybe 0.6 meters over the next 100 years.

If humans were easily able to adapt to those massive changes (130 meters in about 2000 years) in sea levels, don't you think it would be reasonable to expect us to be able to adapt to these other changes in sea levels?

Let's use the 0.6 m per 100 years = 0.006 meters per year expected due to global warming.
Back when the ice age ended, our average would be 130 meters divided by 2000 = 130 / 2000 = 0.065 meters per year. That's more than 10 times the "projected" rise from global warming.

That's 100% relevant to concept of human civilization being able to adapt to climate change. We've done it in the past at a rate that was 10 times as bad as the current projections. That would be a pretty good indicator that this isn't an existential threat to humanity. Right?

If the numbers in that article were correct, then I don't see how ANYONE can deny that this is a pretty darn conclusive de-bunking any "alarmist" concerns we should have about rising sea levels.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

6 mm per year is about double what we are actually seeing. It's also unevenly distributed. In 30 years the average is about 10cm, orange on this plot



Of course this is altitude relative to some defined geoid, it doesn't account for the much more significant shifts in altitude of coastal cities such as Jakarta, which are sinking because of groundwater extraction, dredging, and draining of marshes (and so on). North America's tectonic plate is tilting at roughly the same speed as sea level rise, NW up, SE down.


You'll see claims that sea level rise is accelerating. Interestingly there is a kink in the line, when a new set of satellites were used. How politically convenient.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Something to chew on... Why has there been no archeological interest in these submerged cities? We seem to have found most of the shipwrecks and one would think they are much more challenging to find.

My answer is that because the sea level rise was gradual, the people living in the cities packed up and moved. They took everything of value with them so there is nothing valuable left to recover. In the event of a shipwreck, the occurrence is sudden and the fun (profitable) stuff for expeditioners to find remains on board.

In the case of sea level rise, the people literally adapted and moved on and without our advanced technology such as horseless carriages. Heck, they didn't even have horse drawn carriages then. To suggest that a small amount of sea level change is somehow a threat to human existence is totally absurd.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII


dik (Structural)
(OP)
29 Jan 24 15:50
CO2 emissions have become political, and this will likely continue. Climate doesn't care if you are a fascist or a communist... the less we do and the longer we wait, the consequences could be that much greater. We are dealing with huge energy systems that have stored a 'pile of power' in the last couple of decades, and continue to do so.
===========================================================================================================================================

When you refuse to look into the real cause, there is nothing "WE can DO".

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Only one reply to this... Fascist and Communist are at extreme opposites of the political scale. Politically I place myself at slightly left of centre
Conservative. I have a real difference from most Conservatives; I have a real social conscience. With climate change, it doesn't matter where you are on the political 'scale'.

Like it or not, climate change is happening. It's largely related to the increase in the CO2 in the atmosphere caused by man. There's a close correlation of earth temperatures to CO2. The oceans have warmed significantly; I cannot image oceans in the Florida area have surface temperatures of 100F... body temperature. Given the volume of these oceans; this added warming is indicative of a huge amount of energy. This is reflected in the rapid development of storms. Check California's recent atomospheric 'rivers' of late.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/04/us/california-atmos...

With the uneven heating of the earth, where the poles are warming more than the equator, the polar jet stream is more unstable and results in freaky temperatures. Winnipeg hit +13C a couple of days back. One Feb 14, I know the temperature was -35C; this is a little more representative.

Little appears to be done to correct the problem. Correction of this will be life changing if it occurs. It's not possible to determine where this will end. We simply have to wait it out and see if we can accommodate it.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Fascists and communists are at opposite ends? You're totally delusional.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Grab a book and look it up, tug... Fascists are ultra conservatives and communists are ultra socialists. I didn't make up the definitions.

"Fascism is a set of right-wing political beliefs that includes strong control of society and the economy by the state, a powerful role for the armed forces, and the stopping of political opposition."

and from my farourite (Oxford)

"​(also Fascism) an extreme right-wing political system or attitude that is in favour of strong central government, aggressively promoting your own country or race above others, and that does not allow any opposition"

You might not recall (or maybe have never known) that the NAZI party of Germany were National Socialists (but not in a social sort of way) but were fascists (Ultra Right). They had a strong following in the US by the 'rich'. In addition, most people don't realise that Hitler was actually elected. Shades of current politics?

are you blissful? Just curious... pipe


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Funny, you posted a bunch of definitions of fascism but did not post any for communism or socialism. Why? They're the same damn thing. They're all authoritarianism.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Blissful as ever...

ICYC, Fascism is the ultra right and Communism is the ultra left... if you need confirmation, look it up. People sometimes think that fascism is simply a despotic dictatorship... not realising that it is an ultra conservative dictatorship.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Do you believe it is possible to have communism/socialism without authoritarianism?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

left wing is meant to mean socialism (distributed political power), an communism is an extreme form of socialism.
right wing is meant to mean concentrated political power, and fascism is an extreme concentration.

the problem is that in practice communism led to a high concentration of power.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

The association of right vs left with either conservative or liberal parties varies by country so is best avoided on international forums.

Conservatism is a belief that govt should remain small, weak, and decentralized to protect individual freedoms over the collective. Liberalism is the opposite, a belief that a strong central govt must exist to limit individual freedoms which lest they negatively impact the collective. Fascism and communism are both liberal political systems in which a strong central govt severely limits individual freedoms under the claim of benefiting the collective.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Digressing a bit, I don’t know of any countries that are totally socialist. There are a few that are Communist. Many of them are doing poorly.

Regarding Socialism, there are numerous countries that have adopted parts of socialism. Many of the ‘free’ and civilised countries provide many ‘socialist’ benefits. This may include looking after their citizens in older age, providing a level of health care, including medicines and dental, providing free or nearly free university education, providing social assistance, etc. In addition, much of their power systems are state owned or controlled.

As far as freedoms, or lack of them, China has made some remarkable progress with respect to poverty. Their infrastructure is in contrast to their perceived social condition.

"In 1990 there were more than 750 million people in China living below the international poverty line - about two-thirds of the population.

By 2012, that had fallen to fewer than 90 million, and by 2016 - the most recent year for which World Bank figures are available - it had fallen to 7.2 million people (0.5% of the population).

So clearly, even in 2016 China was well on the way to reaching its target."

Vietnam, another Communist country has made some remarkable changes is the the last several decades. In most western democracies, the opposite has happened... the number of street people increases daily.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

In "the the last several decades" in " most western democracies... the number of street people increases daily."

Obviously just one more tragic effect of global warming.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Dik -

So, the Fascism of the 20th century as exhibited by Hitler and Mussolini and such was born out of an ultra-nationalist movement which was, as you suggested extreme right wing. That doesn't mean that it MUST be that way. There are speeches from Ronald Reagan back in the 80's where he talks about how the left had started leaning into fascism. In his definition, this mean that there would still be private ownership, but that there was still total government control.

Communism and Socialism, however are one and the same in my opinion. That's not to say that a country with lots of social welfare programs is a "socialist" country. However, it begins with the Marxist belief in the class struggle of the oppressor and the oppressed, classically capitalists vs proletariats. Both advocate for violent revolution by the oppressed against the oppressors as being the way to "fix" society.

Now, China certainly started off as a Communist / Socialist country under Mao. The government and the communist party completely controlled all means of production in their society. This led to wide spread famine and horrible suffering of their people. Over the last 40 years, they have transformed their economy into a PRIMARILY capitalist one. However, it's still a totalitarian government. The people and the businessmen have no rights. The government can come in and seize all your assets if they want. They can force your business to reveal extremely private information about their customers to them.

I would argue that the form of government in the China of TODAY would be best described as a Fascist government. At least it has morphed into that. Therefore, I think your rigid definitions of Fascism and Communism are not realistic in today's world.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

maybe socialism and communism are ideal forms, just as "Democracy" is an ideal.

what we see in the real world is a pale imitation of whichever ideal you are pursuing.

Communism as practiced in Russia is better called Leninism, 'cause in practice political power was concentrated in a very small proportion of the population.

Democracy as practiced in "the west" is either a two party system or multi-party (which usually devolves into a minority government (government by collation) and this usually does work well).
nd in the two party system, the choice often devolves to "those guys have been in power too long", elections are more often than not fought on "fluff"(slagging off the other party) and rarely address the issues Plans are often undercosted, and usually when a new party gets in it's "oh dear, it's much worse than we thought, we can't do XYZ".

Big issues usually fall prey to little concerns ... if Canada's carbon taxes increases costs, people say "why do things cost more ?" and a party will surely say "we'll scrap these carbon taxes, and we will meet the carbon issue without taxes FF"

Thus many are disillusioned with modern democracy.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
The EU seems to be on the right path...

"The decline in coal and gas usage in 2023 was unprecedented. Coal usage dropped by 26 per cent to a record low, contributing just 12 per cent to the EU’s electricity generation.

Gas saw its largest annual decrease since at least 1990, falling by 15 per cent. This reduction in fossil fuel use led to a 19 per cent decrease in emissions from the electricity sector.

‘Sarah Brown, European program director at Ember, emphasised, ‘Coal is on its way out and, as wind and solar grow, gas will be next to go into terminal decline.

‘However, this is not the time to rest on its laurels. The EU needs to focus on rapid deployment of wind, solar and flexibility to create a system free of the risks of fossil fuels.’

Spain stood out in 2023, with renewable energy sources almost reaching 51 per cent of its energy mix. This significant achievement underlines Spain’s commitment to green energy, with the clean energy sector now representing over 60 per cent of the total national electrical system."

https://euroweeklynews.com/2024/02/07/wind-energy-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)

Quote (Democracy as practiced in "the west" is either a two party system or multi-party)


Democracy as practiced in the west is largely mythical... look up the term Oligarchy for a better description.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote:

Gas saw its largest annual decrease since at least 1990, falling by 15 per cent.

That's just Putin doing his part for the environment. ponder

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

And not a mention of nuclear?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

if "The EU seems to be on the right path ..." ... I'm glad I don't live there.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

2
Regarding freedom, equality, rights and such.... Milton Friedman (the brilliant economist) had a very good quote:

Quote (Milton Friedman)

Societies that puts equality before freedom usually get neither. But, societies that put freedom before equality usually get a high degree of both.

I think that pretty much sums up my political philosophy. If your government to limit freedoms (like fascists or socialists) in order to promote whatever type of equality they're searching for, you will get neither freedom or equality. You will instead have human misery.... every dang time. If, however, your government's main purpose is to preserve your freedoms, then your society will generally get lots of freedom and equality.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Absolutely:)

The problem with sloppy work is that the supply FAR EXCEEDS the demand

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

freedom to starve is no freedom at all.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Like so much stuff, these days, we just have to wait and see how this works its way out... The next few years could be a harbinger... mass starvation could bring some really unwelcome geo-political changes...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

mass starvation could bring some really unwelcome geo-political changes.

This idea of "mass starvation" is just silly. Actually, worse than that, it's just complete fear mongering. Please identify a reputable scientist that has suggested this will happen due to global warming!

I say this partly because, the environmentalist left has been predicting mass starvation for 70 years. Yet, they have been proven so incredibly wrong that this sort of claim should make us realize how foolish these people really are. Food is cheaper and more accessible to people now than it has ever been. Granted, that was a prediction based on population growth, not on climate change. The only mass starvation we've seen in my lifetime has been caused by government (i.e. China, North Korea, et cetera). Even the mass starvation we saw at times in Ethiopia or Somalia were caused more my political instability / warlords and such than it was by climate.

Let's look at how atmospheric CO2 and increased temperatures should affect plant life / food production:
1) Plants grow better and faster with increased CO2. So, it should help to INCREASE our food supply.
2) Increased temperatures will allow greater food production in regions that were colder before. Not sure increased temperatures alone would suggest any overall reduction in the production of food. Sure, there can be localized reductions in some areas. But, those should be offset by increased growth in other areas.
3) Water supply. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hotter temperatures correspond to higher moisture content in the air. Meaning more rainfall. Meaning more food production and potentially more reliable water supplies.

I just have never seen a RATIONAL or science based narrative that gives any sound reason why increased CO2 will lead to mass starvation. Please give me something to justify these claims. I want to understand why an otherwise rational person might believe this sort of frivolous claim.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
2024 is off to a good start...

"The world just had its hottest year ever recorded, and 2024 has already set a new heat record for the warmest January ever observed, according to the European Union's climate change monitoring service Copernicus.

The service said that January 2024 had a global average air temperature of 13.14 degrees Celsius, or 55.65 degrees Fahrenheit. That temperature was 0.70 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average for the month and 0.12 degrees Celsius above the last warmest January, in 2020.

It was also 1.66 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average for the month."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/another-global-heat-r...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Maybe millions isn't mass... but it's a bunch...

https://www.redcross.org.uk/stories/disasters-and-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Reading that quote from CBS posted by dik is funny, it reads as if they think their readers don't know that it's summer in the southern hemisphere. They're expecting us to read 55° and say my God that's hot for winter time.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
off to a good start, and it's only the beginning of the new year.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110...


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Dik -

The closest that CBS article (which is certainly not a "science" based article) gets to saying that there will be world wide starvation is when Bob Watson (a former chair of a UN Panel on Global warming) says, "we're starting to see less agricultural productivity". It doesn't even give any academic credentials for Watson. LOL.

Next!

The Red Cross article is one mostly intended to be a fund raising drive for their efforts to fight humanitarian crises in Africa. They genuinely do NOT blame this on global warming, it's just one of the catch phrases they're using to raise money to help.

For what it's worth, I can just about guarantee that the other factors mentioned (conflict, population displacement, soaring food and energy prices due to war in the Ukraine) are the real culprits behind any mass starvation that will happen.

Maybe drought is a significant factor, I can certainly believe that. However, we have to realize that this area has a severe drought every few decades.... as part of the natural cycle predating global warming. The real solution is better water processing, water storage.... everything that the Western world does. Heck, there are probably a dozen non-profits (or more) whose sole focus is to modernize water supply and processing in these countries.

A news story from 7 years ago:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2015/01/...

A nonprofit that my neighbor used to work for:
https://www.wellsoflife.org/

A movie from my teenage years set in Africa where the the drought vs rain cycle is an integral part of the story.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lion_King

A famine from my childhood. This article discusses how 1/3 of the Ethiopian population starved to death in the late 1800s. Then in 1958 another 100,000 died. But, it wasn't until the political situation (i.e. the Red Terror happened) that agriculture industry got devastated... leading up to the deaths of between 300k and 1.2 million.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983%E2%80%931985_fa...

In 1992, Somalia had a terrible famine that as almost entirely caused by the civil war that was going on there. Drought was a contributing problem. But, it was the war that prevented food from getting to hungry people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_famine_in_Somal...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
All within the climate change period, and they might get a tad worse...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

All within the climate change period, and they might get a tad worse...

Not sure exactly what you mean by that.

If you actually read the Wiki post on the Ethiopian famine, it discusses a famine in the 1880's where 1/3 of their population died of starvation. That essentially predates the climate warming period.

If you want to split hairs, maybe we can claim that the 1850's was the point where the industrial revolution gained enough momentum that CO2 emissions were significantly changed and that's when global warming started. However, it's close enough that we can say it had little to no effect on that famine.

The point is that there has been famines and droughts in African going back centuries. Heck, it's talked about in the Bible!

Remember the onus of proof is on the people who are saying that radical change must be initiated. So, you must demonstrate that such famines are caused by global warming. There is zero evidence of that that I'm aware of. The articles you cited provide no evidence of that outside of a questionable claim (that crop yields are decreasing) by a person that is a relative unknown (Bob Watson).

For what it's worth, I looked up the name Bob Watson and will assume that this was referring to this person who is certainly an expert:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Watson_(chemi...)

As far as his claim that crop yields have decreased, I will offer the following site which clearly shows a pretty steady increase in crop yields that doesn't show much sign of slowing down. Maybe soybeans, but all other crop yields are clearly increasing:
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/12/world-an...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

It is astonishing how coal production (as a proxy for coal consumption) has changed ...

in 1900 worldwide 5 TWh, in 2022 50TWh ! and most of this change is China since 1990 (6 to 26) ... nearly 1/2 (20/45 = 4/9 = 44%) the change in 30 years.
meanwhile in the US 1990 to 2022 it 1/2d ... from 6 to 3

yes, but this is coal production ... and coal consumption would include imported coal.

Step back from the trees ... coal production (and by extension coal consumption, 'cause I don't see people storing mountains of coal) has soared in recent history (30 years) to a level (and at a rate) which is unsustainable.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (rb9157)

Step back from the trees... coal production (and by extension coal consumption, 'cause I don't see people storing mountains of coal) has soared in recent history (30 years) to a level (and at a rate) which is unsustainable.

No I don't see that happening. Take a look at Australia, a country that has aggressively moved away from coal power. But, they still mine it. It's a win-win for the politicians. They get to "virtue signal" to their environmental base about all the good they're doing by getting rid of coal power. But, they don't take much of a hit with coal industry, because they still get to mine as much of it as they want..... as long as they export it to other countries.

LOL. This is the EXACT type of "solutions" we can expect government to come up with for our concerns about fossil fuel emissions.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (JPSE)

LOL. This is the EXACT type of "solutions" we can expect government to come up with for our concerns about fossil fuel emissions.

The irony is that the climatologists are always warning about the future but are always very short sighted in their actions.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

It is much more environmental friendly to mine the coal and freight it over the ocean so it can power industry making fidget spinners that are freighted back to your country to be put in the garbage, which is freighted back to massive landfills where they burn the garbage to supplement the coal to make more fidget spinners.

China sure is doing something right, but I'm not sure it has to do with renewable energy...

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Rputvin, not quite correct...

“China Invests $546 Billion in Clean Energy, Far Surpassing the U.S.

China accounted for nearly half of the world's low-carbon spending in 2022, which could challenge U.S. efforts to bolster domestic clean energy manufacturing”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-i...

“China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined

China is shoring up its position as the world leader in renewable power and potentially outpacing its own ambitious energy targets, a report has found.
China is set to double its capacity and produce 1,200 gigawatts of energy through wind and solar power by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal five years ahead of time, according to the report by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO that tracks operating utility-scale wind and solar farms as well as future projects in the country.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/chin...

“Owing to its reliance on coal for two-thirds of its electricity supply, China emits more greenhouse gases per year than any other country. Its electricity-related emissions alone roughly equal those of the entire United States economy, and China is planning to speed construction of new coal plants in 2023.

At the same time, China is adding new renewable projects to the grid roughly as fast as the rest of the world combined. In 2020, it added three times as much wind and solar capacity than the U.S. did the same year. In just the first half of 2022, it invested another U.S.$100 billion in solar and wind and plans to add record amounts of wind and solar in 2023.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2023...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

dik -

First, you are assuming that China's numbers are correct. Aren't you? I think that is a very dubious claim since China almost never releases data where they look bad.

That being said, the most important thing to remember is that China is NOT doing this for the benefit of the earth. They are doing it for their benefit alone. They are trying to rapidly increase the standard of living of their citizens. That means providing energy (of all kinds) as quickly as possible. They will re-route and dam rivers regardless of environmental consequences. They will burn coal and build strip mines as much as they can to meet their goals.

Mankind is inherently selfish. So, that it not inherently bad, just human nature. But, it would be wrong to look at their actions and think.... "wow, look at what China is doing for the world, they are leading the way in clean energy." Not at all.

They are also expanding their CO2 emissions at a rate that far outstrips any other country in the world. They will continue to do so as long as it is in their best interests. They are also committing literal "genocide" against the Uyghurs. We have the a whole generation of activists that are convinced that Israel is evil because they are in a land conflict with the Palestinians. But, no one in the US complains about China's treatment of the Uyghurs for some reason.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

3
Per capita, China's genocide rate is lower than Israel.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (TugBoat)

Per capita, China's genocide rate is lower than Israel.

LOL.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Josh... I don't know where the data comes from. Satellite monitoring is somewhat consistent with their output... Coal is an ugly form of fossil fuel, but there are other fossil fuels that contribute to the footprint. Their carbon footprint is increasing at a faster rate than the US, but, on a per capita basis, they are still behind at nearly half the US. The US will continue as long as it is in their best interests, too. Their implementation of alternative energy greatly exceeds that of the US.

In the last few decades, they have brought hundreds of millions out of poverty... this likely has an impact on their carbon footprint. There is a real disconnect on how the Chinese are portrayed when you look at the current state of their infrastructure.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Thought I'd check in on this thread.

Yep, same arguments, no one has learned anything.

See y'all in another 6 months.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (Dik)

The US will continue as long as it is in their best interests, too.

The US is a totally different situation because, it's not a dictator that decides what the priorities for our country are. In the US, every single person gets to make a choice about how to live their lives as far as CO2 emissions go. Right? What's driving the reduction (not increase) in CO2 emissions in the US? Is it government policy? Maybe that plays a part... Though I am skeptical. Certainly, it has helped switch us towards coal.

Instead, I'd argue that the biggest reason is that the CONSUMER in the US wants to reduce their carbon emissions. And, the market is rising up to meet those demands. Last year, I got solar panels on my house. This year, we bought a hybrid car that easily gets 2 or 3 times the gas mileage as our older cars. Altogether, that's probably 80 grand we've spent with an eye on reducing our carbon footprint in a single year. Now, my family can afford to do those things. But, we're not just flushing our money down the toilet. We see value in it as well. Value in the short term, value in the long term. It's like when someone decides to make a 'moral' choice to become a vegetarian or start eating healthier. It might be expensive, it might be inconvenient, but EACH PERSON gets to make that decision for his or her self.

There are plenty of people in the US who cannot afford to install solar panels or buy a hybrid car or such. They will likely not be reducing their CO2 emissions because it's not in their best interests. But, for many of us, it is. Which is why the US has been reducing our CO2 emissions so successfully over the last 10 or 20 years. In fact, our country's CO2 emissions are down to what they were in the early 1990s(approximately). That is a HUGE change in our consumption of energy. It should not be ignored.

Nor should the fact that Chinas are approximately 4 times what they were in the same time period. You see how that difference clearly demonstrates how china doesn't care about reducing CO2 emissions overall. They care about increasing their standard of living. Maybe they'll get to the point where they start reducing their CO2 emissions. But, right now, the entire 1st / western world could cut their CO2 emissions by 30% and that would likely be entirely offset by CO2 emission increases by China and India.






RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)

Quote (The US is a totally different situation because, it's not a dictator that decides what the priorities for our country are.)


Don't kid yourself... your method of the courts overturning the government, may even be worse... check the difference in US Covid deaths compared to China's or other Western countries... Modified Harley... 'Live Free and Die'.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/the-sup...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

check the difference in US Covid deaths compared to China's or other Western countries.

You do understand that the US probably dramatically over stated their covid deaths. And, that China almost certainly under-reported their Covid deaths? Right.

I think Covid (it's origins, death toll, and such) is a case where you can really, really not trust ANYTHING that China reports to be anywhere close to what really happened. LOL.

I suppose your argument is really that BECAUSE China is an authoritarian country, they could be much more successful in moving towards clean energy. But, remember that only happens if they genuinely care if there is massive climate change in the world. Other countries starve to death or such. I don't have any reason to believe they care about this at all.

Now, my point about the USA (and most western democracies) is that each of us can have a minor effect on our own. And, if those of us who want to have a positive effect on CO2 emissions demonstrate a reasonable about of economic DEMAND, the the market will develop the SUPPLY of CO2 reducing products for us. The cost of those products will go down and the efficiency will go up. And, the world eventually gets better or people adjust to the new world without anyone being forced to commit economic suicide.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

If we take a look at renewable energy milestones we may see a pattern.

The solar panel - Fritts - USA
The wind turbine generator - Brush - USA
The lithium ion battery - Goodenough - USA
The water turbine generator - Francis - USA

Do Socialist countries like China have any such contributions?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
by half a million to take them outside the rest of the western countries... tell me another one...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
See my post of Feb 12...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

They don't need to invent anything, when they can steal it.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Yeah? I'm on track to hit my solar and wind target too in that I intend to install no wind or solar on my house in the next 5 years. Dik, you're an engineer. If you set a target of half of your buildings not falling down in 5 years is that a good target?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

by half a million to take them outside the rest of the western countries... tell me another one...

is that a per capita comparison?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
With a population of 5x the American, they are even better off with Covid fatalities. As with most things, the US far exceeds the Western world, too.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Complete rubbish, dik. China is still suffering from Covid deaths, and not reporting any.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
A pretty good summary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_mhBweaVxU

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Are there any key points you would like to share so we don't have to waste 45 minutes and all of the CO2 required to stream it?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Coastal Flooding...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4q3SjqWtvg

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Will you acknowledge that sea levels have already risen 425 feet within human history?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Yup, over millennia and not with the current infrastructure and cities/villages and population densities involved.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

It has risen that much within 14,000 years which averages out to 0.36 inches per year. We haven't experienced 0.36" in the last 150 years since we started burning fossil fuels. Where does your concern come from?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Sea level rise is a bit less than 1/8" per year, but much of that occurs out in the middle of the oceans, near coats it seems a lot less. There are other far more important reasons for changes in tide gage readings, ie sea vs land, which I have written fairly often about. Tilting of tectonic plates, land use changes, and water extraction from underground basins are far more important.

As of yesterday I'm red flagging all posts that just include media links with no explanation as to why they are worth watching.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

Yup, over millennia and not with the current infrastructure and cities/villages and population densities involved.

What does that matter? There were certainly people and civilizations living in those areas, right?

The point is that they adjusted fine. They moved because the seas rose. They adapted.

I would make the argument that it is much, much easier for our societies to adapt today. Once I decide to leave, I can pack my stuff into a truck and drive to the mountains or a neighboring state.... and I'm there in a few days, max. Easy peasy....

Quote (dik)

Coastal Flooding...
Yet, we are safer from coastal flooding (and other weather related events) as a society than we have ever been in recorded history. Right? The numbers show that very obviously.

Now, if you're making the argument that it will be extremely expensive to deal with these floods and changes and such, then that is a great point! That's EXACTLY what we should be talking about..... how to spend our limited financial resources best to deal with global warming / climate change. Right?

This has always been my point. That there are better ways to spend our money to deal with this than what the climate alarmists want us to do. Essentially, our goal should never be net Zero carbon emissions. But, to be more EFFICIENT with our climate emissions in a way that will not bankrupt our society. How to deal with events as they come up in a way that will be sustainable going forward.

Policy changes that basically suggest that living at low elevations (say within 20 feet of sea level) should make you ineligible for FEMA relief should a flood occur. That sort of thing will encourage people to build elsewhere. The ones that don't care are likely rich enough that it won't matter to them.

It might mean that some thriving communities (say New Orleans) will be abandoned over a period of just a few decades. But, that's okay. That's how we adjust to global warming. It will amount to something that just doesn't affect our everyday lives for the most part. Just like the following predicted catastrophes:

1) The Population Bomb, which predicted worldwide famine in the 1970's. When, in fact, the rates of starvation in the world dramatically declined.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

2) The impending ice age that was talked about in the 1970's.

3) The Ozone hole.

4) The prediction that Y2K would result in major disruptions in all aspects of our life.

5) Various predictions based on Mayan Calendars. Various predictions from religious sects about when the 2nd coming or the apocalypse would occur.

6) Another big one was the idea that we would all die due to nuclear proliferation. I remember an hour assembly where an activist addressed my entire high school with typical fear mongering tactics. This would have been circa 1988.

The point is that people have made these sorts of predictions for decades (probably centuries) and they have not proven to be very accurate at all. Why should we believe the dire predictions this time around?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Apps from Copernicus... ICYC

https://www.copernicus.eu/es/node/47237

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Josh... I'm not sure what the population bomb is, but population is going to be a problem. The population of the developed countries has fallen below that required to sustain them. This reduction in population will cause serious problems as the developed countries age, requiring a lot more 'support' from a dwindling workforce.

Quote (people have made these sorts of predictions for decades (probably centuries))


That's why I don't make any forecasts, only that there is a potential for a real serious outcome. As I've said, I don't know what it will be, but it has the potential to be really ugly.


-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

The concept you rae looking for is known as the dependency ratio, (children+retired)/workers.




As a concept the raw ratio is a bit misleading , lumping the ankle biters in with the crumblies masks the future.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

That's why I don't make any forecasts, only that there is a potential for a real serious outcome

Good lord.

Your constant battle to convince everyone that the most sensationalist negative outcome is the actual endgame IS A PREDICTION.

You can't hide behind that. Your post history indicates that in your mind there is no room for a rational or moderate point of view.

If you actually have a rational or moderate point of view, you need to make a serious change in how you present your ideas.

Until then, backpedaling to 'I'm not forecasting anything, I'm just saying it could maybe get real bad' isn't fooling anyone.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Sorry Swinny... I have no idea of what the real outcome will be. I do know there is the potential for it to be really ugly.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

I think you just wasted a lot of words, SwinngGG.

Climate change has its first lost cause.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (dik)

I'm not sure what the population bomb is, but population is going to be a problem. The population of the developed countries has fallen below that required to sustain them. This reduction in population will cause serious problems as the developed countries age, requiring a lot more 'support' from a dwindling workforce.

The "population bomb" was a very widely popularized concept from the late 1960s that the earth could not possibly sustain it's population and that food would become quite scarce. It was advanced by a Stanford biologist whose specialty was insects and pollination (Paul Erhilich sp?). It was widely believed to be "solid science" and was used by the environmentalist left for years to justify anti-population strategies. Now, I should point out that the point of the book was that we were already so far along that this was essentially unavoidable.

Of course, the widespread starvation never happened. Except maybe in communist countries that made poor decisions about their economy that caused large numbers of people to starve. Why did the supply of food increase so much and the cost of food go down so much while the population was still rising? Well, because of technological advancements made by the free market.

Not only that, but the rate of population growth quickly decreased. Why? Because of technological and medical advancements made by the free market.

Why won't "global warming" be a major problem. Partly from technological advancements by the free market. Partly because of the ability of our societies to adapt. The same reason why casualties related to climate / weather continue to decrease on a per capita basis. We adapt, we build better and safer buildings and cities.

I have no doubt that there will be some dramatic changes to our society in the next 100 years that will be initiated by the effects of global warming. I don't pretend to know exactly what those will be. But, I suspect that they will involve a large number of relatively small steps and no one will even realize the extent of what we're doing until global warming is no longer an issue.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

I found this article from 2017 that gives a very detailed history of California's climate with emphasis on changes that occured within human history. The information is well presented and unbiased.

https://planningcommission.org/sites/default/files...

An excerpt as the article is long:

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
It's only been about the last 20,000 years, or so, that there have been people in the Americas... the far right side of your charts. likely just to the right of your last ice volume 'peak'.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

225,000 years ago is the MIDDLE of that chart. Not 'the far right' or 'to the right of your last ice volume "peak"'

While I don't agree with Tug on a lot of stuff, you're clearly either missing or attempting to obscure the valid point he's making.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Swinny... You may not be aware that 225,000 years ago, there were no people in California... people in the Americas are only a recent addition... about 20,000 years ago. What's his valid point? The data could be valid and unbiased, but for the most part is meaningless... Only the extreme RHS is applicable to people in California. I didn't miss anything. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

The problem I see with the geological historical record is that it is pretty meaningless compared to recent impacts. Coal consumption really kicked off since the 50s, following a trend that really looks unsustainable. This is, IMHO, way too short of a timescale to have any impact on climate, but to change we had to have definitive statements .... yes, yes we've been burning coal and gasoline since 1850s but in much smaller quantities. I think I read that 75% of CO2 has been emitted in the last 70 years.

"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Dik, if you read the image I shared, it says that humans were living in the vicinity of San Diego 130,000 years ago.

Why should we ignore everything but the extreme RHS? There seems to be a very clear pattern. In every previous warming, notice how steep the slopes are. It's exactly the same as what we are seeing today.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
You might want to check your source... most credible info regarding people in the Americas indicates they arrived about 20,000 years back. It's only the extreme RHS that might have an impact on people living there... the early weather/climate would have little impact on them.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

That's it, the oldest artifacts have already been found? Nothing older will ever be discovered?

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/0...

Interestingly, 130k years ago corresponds with a warmest period. Perhaps the world was more hospitable and able to support a more diverse range of hominids over a wider habit.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Things are starting to heat up... in Texas, too. More GHGs...:

"Deadly Texas wildfire torches 1 million acres – the largest blaze in state history – as more infernos rage out of control"

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/29/us/texas-panhan...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
for added climate info...

"As global warming accelerates, decisions on infrastructure, energy, mobility, water and food security or urban planning need to be informed by the potential impacts of climate change. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) ERA5 reanalysis dataset provides key insights about our past and present climate, helping to foresee the risks, and assisting policymakers in making informed decisions.

The consequences of climate change, anticipated by scientists many years ago, have become a part of our everyday lives. Throughout 2023, almost every corner of the world was affected, and nearly every individual has witnessed, to varying degrees, an increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather occurrences such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, or heavy rainfall. This transformation is occurring rapidly, and so we need swift adjustments in policies."

https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-co...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Is 1940 really considering "past climate change"? Shouldn't they look back a little further of they want to make meaningful observations?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
1940 is still part if our current climate change... most of the 'stuff' has happened in the last decade or so...

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Totally not true. We've already established that most of the stuff happened over the last 12,500 years.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
...maybe a lot within the last decade?

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

You're going to tell me that the last 410 feet of sea level rise is irrelevant while whining about a completely imperceptible rise between 1940 and now?

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

Quote (TugBoat)

You're going to tell me that the last 410 feet of sea level rise is irrelevant while whining about a completely imperceptible rise between 1940 and now?

Anything that doesn't fit the narrative is irrelevant.

I have said this before, but to the radical left the very real issue of climate change doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is how they USE that issue to further the revolution, seize power, fundamentally change our society, destroy capitalism or however you want to characterize their political goals. The issue is NEVER the issue, the issue is POWER.

Note: I'm not saying that dik is a radical lefty. He genuinely believes in the importance of this issue, as do I. We really only differ in the solutions and the best way to get there. In that way, he's more of a victim of the radical left narrative.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

I periodically read this site on eng-tips. What does "RHS" stand for? I guess I missed when it was defined.

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Right Hand Side... as opposed to LHS. pipe

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

(OP)
Josh... I'm a conservative, but unlike most conservatives, I have a really strong social conscience.

-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

RE: Things are Starting to Heat Up - Part XIII

dik,

That is insulting. Your conscience is yours, my conscience is mine.

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