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How do they do it
5

How do they do it

RE: How do they do it

TLDR the link. A computer model?

Good Luck,
Latexman

RE: How do they do it

There are a number of natural sources that permit scientists to estimate with reasonably precision annual weather patterns.
Ice core samples, tree rings, written records of events to name just a few.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
Those and a thousand others are the subject of the linked article.
Sorry I was not clear that it was a rhetorical question.

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
Yes. I wasn't really directing the thread to them, but they do have a habit of always showing up.

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
"The "decline" is about northern tree-rings (width), not global temperature (degrees)"

Its not exactly like the case rests entirely on tree rings, but it is a good example.

RE: How do they do it

why would you need proxies for near term temperature ? (when you have data ... such as it is)

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

RE: How do they do it

Quote (rb1957)

why would you need proxies for near term temperature ? (when you have data ... such as it is)

It's not necessarily about "need", it's about appropriateness and academic honesty. Right?

If I'm saying that the historical records shows a pattern of X based on tree rings for the last 2000 years, then tree rings are showing something different for the last 60 years then doesn't that call into question the accuracy of the tree ring data?

Said another way, if the you exclude certain data from your modeling because it would skew your results doesn't that seem like you are biasing your analysis to fit your conclusion?

I'm not calling this nefarious. But, I understand the frustration. I tend to agree with the following analysis of the issue that was cited in that link:

Quote (Independent Climate Change Review (as cited in that article))

We do not find that it is misleading to curtail reconstructions at some point per se, or to splice data, but we believe that both of these procedures should have been made plain — ideally in the figure but certainly clearly described in either the caption or the text.

Personally, I think this is exactly the type of thing that happens when complex, theoretical data is presented in a way for the public at large to consume.

RE: How do they do it

do you mean tree rings don't track with local temp, or CO2, or rainfall ?

but they do track tree growth ... a combination of local temp, CO2, and rainfall.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

RE: How do they do it

IRStuff,

I demand you produce peer-reviewed reports to support your opinion!

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

Quote (rb357)

do you mean tree rings don't track with local temp, or CO2, or rainfall ?

I mean that it is inappropriate to show a graph that uses tree ring data ONLY when it supports your conclusion, but not specifically call out your inconsistency in the footnotes.

At the very least, data manipulation like this suggests that both the historical record and the predictions based on your data have a much higher margin of error than implied.

To me, that is the big issue that we're dealing with. Too many are pretending that the predictions of what will happen and what issues that will cause is "settled science". It's a prediction based on good science and extremely complex data sets.... But, with a healthy margin of error.

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
Trump didn't file his tax returns because it was "Too complicated for anyone but his accountant to understand."

RE: How do they do it

The correspondence between different dating methods has been established within local regions with a high degree of confidence. That permits, for example, very precise dating of a 1000 year old wooden beam dredged from a bog in Denmark.

Plum,
You need to clarify what you mean by 'data manipulation'. It suggests 'cherry-picking', which in turn suggests dishonesty among researchers. Techniques being sophisticated and complex does not negate their validity.
The scientists I have met were uniformly not particularly political, nor did they bring agendas into their work, other than the agenda of increasing knowledge and understanding.
What the idiot news media does with their findings is beyond their control; unfortunately it is the MSM who mediate most information consumed by the general public. From there it goes to social media to metastasize.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

Quote (ionic metallurgist)

You need to clarify what you mean by 'data manipulation'. It suggests 'cherry-picking', which in turn suggests dishonesty among researchers. Techniques being sophisticated and complex does not negate their validity.

Not properly identifying the "mid-stream" change of methods in the graph and representing it as something else was inappropriate. That graph merely needed a footnote as suggested in that article that was linked to. That's the extent of my complaint for this specific data.

Note: I have a personal issue with the "larger narrative" being pushed by politicians and the media. That makes all these predictions sound like they're "settled science" when they genuinely are not. When the predictions of the past have a large deviation from what has actually happened. When the margin of error or statistical deviations are not intelligently reported on.

I know you have a defeatest attitude towards global warming. That it is already too late to correct any issues that we have and that we're inevitably headed towards total catastrophe.... That's fine. However, I'm not quite so pessimistic. Certainly there is a good chance that your predictions will come true. But, I choose to act as if we still have a chance to change things for the better and that the consequences won't be so severe. I think your type of "certainty" is one thing that drives our nation (and others) towards inaction.

RE: How do they do it

Quote:

I think your type of "certainty" is one thing that drives our nation (and others) towards inaction.
Au contraire; I think it's actually optimism/procrastination that drives inaction, the optimism that "something" will come along that will solve the problem, which is a very American attitude. We saw the inevitable arc of Hitler's Germany, but refused to do much about it, until Pearl Harbor forced us into the war.

Not that different that a real, looming issue with Social Security; we KNOW the projections, there's not much is in dispute there, but we refuse to deal with it and the giganticness of the overall debt.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: How do they do it

Quote:

this suggests that both the historical record and the predictions based on your data have a much higher margin of error than implied.

They've specifically looked at the tree ring divergence and have taken the older data and partitioned it and have found no obvious divergence elsewhen

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: How do they do it

Quote (IRstuff)

They've specifically looked at the tree ring divergence and have taken the older data and partitioned it and have found no obvious divergence elsewhere

I did understand that from the article. But, I don't believe they offered an explanation for the divergence. Did they? If that's true then it implies some issues with the entire methodology that would greatly increase the margin of error of the historical data. Right?

IRstuff -

I think you're correct in saying that optimism is also causing inaction. I'm really referring to the EXTREME pessimism that Greta "what's her name" and Ironic_metallurgist exhibit. That's it's already too late and we're all doomed unless we immediately kill 40% of the human population and start living as subsistence level hunters and gatherers.

One of the things that I really think drives everyday people towards inaction is the "rules for thee, but not for me" type of hypocrisy all over the place. Where the mega wealthy who are complaining loudest about Global Warming do things that are diametrically opposed to there dire warnings. In particular:
a) Feel perfectly comfortable with their jet setting and high consumption lifestyle.
b) Buy up ocean front property despite telling us how much sea levels are going to rise.
c) Oppose nuclear and demand that our existing nuclear power plants get shut down, despite it being the most reliable carbon free energy source we have... other than hydro power which they often oppose as well.

RE: How do they do it

Quote:

But, I don't believe they offered an explanation for the divergence. Did they? If that's true then it implies some issues with the entire methodology that would greatly increase the margin of error of the historical data. Right?

They offered some possible explanations. Nevertheless, if there are no divergences elsewhere, then only the recent stuff needs to possibly larger error margins. The tracking was never perfect to start with, so the error margins are pretty large already.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
I don't get the point about arguing about error margins of tree rings. Its only 1/10,000th of the problem. The IPCC report gives a more solid prediction of "Total Consequences" and associated error margins, which even in the best case, widest error margins included, gives us bout the same chance as bacon on a BBQ. I think we would have to find severe problems with at least 50% of ALL the data that was assemilated to reach their results in order to say the outcome is not likely or not severe enough, or both, no to do anything about it.

RE: How do they do it

Quote (JoshPlumSE)

I'm really referring to the EXTREME pessimism that Greta "what's her name" and Ironic_metallurgist exhibit.

It's Thunberg, Greta Thunberg (pronounced tun-bear). She is an articulate and justifiably angry spokesperson for her generation. She's not radical, and she is far from alone. Have you noticed how many 20-somethings have decided not to have children? They've done the math, seen the writing on the wall. There is no more certain indicator of loss of hope than declining to reproduce.

Quote (JoshPlumSE)

That's it's already too late and we're all doomed unless we immediately kill 40% of the human population and start living as subsistence level hunters and gatherers.

That's just being ridiculous (besides putting words into my mouth, again). Look at what clowns like Drumph, Bolsonaro and Johnson are doing and tell me they are not making things much worse. Pointing out the hypocrisy of the super-rich (most of whom keep discreetly quiet) is just a distraction. We have it in our power to vote out the scoundrels from all parties and bring in fairer policies (I know, sounds like socialism).

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

1503-44,

The consequences on the ground (and air and oceans) are rapidly overtaking IPCC predictions. We are seeing the change right in front of us and still the corporate-owned idiot media wants to question the data, wasting precious time.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
I think that's called D-E-M-O-C-R-A-C-Y, but that word isn't in any of their vocabularies either.

I even remember when we didn't have seat belts, because that would make cars too expensive and Detroit wouldn't make their sales targets. How we couldn't ever have 20 mpg. Exploding Corvets. When smoking was safe. I still have a diver's watch that lights up at night with radium .. kept in a jar now ... won't bore you with the rest.

RE: How do they do it

The reason I have never purchased a GM product and never will is that they and their lawyers fought Congress for 14 years from making airbags mandatory. All to save the cost of $75 per bag, after they were proven to save lives.

The safety systems in a 1998 Civic, primarily the airbag, saved my life in a head-on crash in 2009.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
Thank "G"

We could afford all that crome, but ..
Two angle of attack indicators .. no way ..
It'just s amazing what we can do to save them a buck and what we can't do to save a life, eh.



RE: How do they do it

Greta Thundberg is quite radical in my opinion. Though she is not a hypocrite. My only argument was that she was so extremely pessimistic (as you are as well) to the point where no one is going to listen to them.

Why? Because the argument is for complete overturning / upheaval of our entire economy.... immediately. And, using the most extreme fear tactics to do so. That (IMO) hurts the cause.

I'm used to my views on climate change being outside of the mainstream. I look at this from an energy economics standpoint more than anything else. That may not be popular with the extremists (on either side), but it is a much more realistic way to approach the changes that need to happen (IMO).

RE: How do they do it

That may be so, but no one is listening to those ideas either. Given the do-nothing until something breaks mentality isn't cutting it; not sure that preaching fire and brimstone is a solution either, but there's at least a chance that someone will get their come to Jesus moment, sooner, rather than later.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
Didn't work out well at Surfside.

RE: How do they do it

Preaching fire and brimstone just causes polarization. I'm all for a transition to clean energy. However, I think completely replacing our current infrastructure in short time I'd counter-productive and wasteful.

RE: How do they do it

RE: How do they do it

Josh,
(i) You really know nothing about me. What you have is a box you think I fit into.
(ii) Greta is not at all radical, just a straight talker who an awful lot of young folks identify with.
(iii) Hypocrisy is not the sin, but it's what looks bad and what the media self-righteously gorge on. The sin is what our so-called leaders do, much more than what they say. While Drumpf was entertaining and outraging us on twitter, we were distracted from the horrific orders he was implementing in the background.

Tugboat,
Infrastructure inertia is a massive problem. The more we build it, the more we are committed to living according to its demands. But that train is heading off an environmental cliff*.

* Don't shoot the messenger

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

Life began without polar icecaps and won't end without them. Saying anything but is radical.

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
Lost me with that one.

RE: How do they do it

The Earth's temperature goes up and down, see the image above. The human influence is questionable. Regardless, a bit of warming isn't going to cause an end to life. Life started when earth had no polar ice caps. I doubt it's going to end if we lose our polar ice caps.

If what they say is true about global warming, I think the worst result is that there will be a whole lot more coast line which will devalue the rich peoples' properties.

I'm just here to be controversial. People love to talk about the "science". Heck, for all we know a bit of warming will benefit the world and anybody who says otherwise is denying the science.

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
OK, I can go there. Doesn't make sense to me. We are neither at the beginning, nor end. We're not talking about the survival of Earth.. it will. We are talking about continuing to be able to adapt to a changing environment in real time. If that change happens too fast for us to keep up with in either an environmental-biological sense, or in the financial sense, it won't fare well. Many areas are becoming unsuitable for habitation for many species, including humans, and for many reasons, drought, flooding, fire and wars created so the local rich people can grab remaining land to use for their survival. There are already plenty of "climate migrants", UN est. 20MM/yr, although you may call them something else. There's going to be increased competition for remaining land. One example is Saudi Arabia buying up farmland in Africa for years, which is displacing locals and diverting scarce water reserves. This is displacing many, probably towards your favorite coastal zones eventually. Israel is kicking locals off their farms and making new settlements for "others" to farm. Sure, Hudson Bay Resorts and banana farming in Greenland and Siberia may become an option some day soon, after those 20MM people/yr move there, but is that really going to happen. Everybody is already building walls to keep them home. Already it's not working. We've had 20,000 subSaharan African migrants land here just in the last 6mo. 280 during last weekend alone. Its certainly not Covid related. You dont crowd into a little boat with 70 others for a 700+km ride to possibly mid Atlantic nowhere just because you're scared of C19, or being poor. They have already survived that. It's life or death now, staying or going, and going looks like the best option to them. Really? This route is the most dangerous route to Europe with record numbers, thousands,dying this year of those choosing it, yet they take it anyway. Those deaths are climate change deaths. Its happening in real time here.
.



RE: How do they do it

Climate change is the least of Africa's problems. The leadership goes one of two ways, inept or warlords. There is no middle ground. They need to manage what they have. Rwanda is figuring it out, the rest of Africa not so much.

Fires, at least here in California, are largely related to mismanagement as well. We clear cut logged the state over a century ago and the forests are coming back densely overgrown with smaller trees. It's normal for fire to burn through every 25-35 years but we have been supressing the natural process. Our governor just doubled down on that error saying all fires will be suppressed even in uninhabited areas.

RE: How do they do it

Quote:

We clear cut logged the state over a century ago and the forests are coming back densely overgrown with smaller trees.

More TB-BS. I've driven past areas clear logged over a century ago; there's bupkis growing there, nothing but miles of bare tree stumps.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: How do they do it

Quote (Ironic Metallurgist)

You really know nothing about me. What you have is a box you think I fit into.

I do not know you very well all all. But, I do know you a at least a little based on interacting with you on this forum. My comments about your beliefs are entirely based on the types of comments you have made on this forum. Feel free to correct me anytime you feel I've stepped over the line or wronged you.

I certainly apologize for "putting words in your mouth". That really wasn't my intention. My comments about "killing 40% of the population and the rest of us living subsistence hunter gatherer type lives" as being the solution was related to the "extreme pessimism" that I see from so many. Your posts have led me to believe that you think that CO2 levels are so high now that catastrophic consequences are inevitable. You've also said things in the past that seem like you think there is no possible way we can globally reduce carbon emissions to the point where it will make any difference. Please let me know if I'm off base with those summaries.

To be clear, I'm not trying to denigrate you at. Not trying to invalidate your opinion or your posts. I'm just saying that you're pessimistic and somewhat extreme (IMO). Just like I don't view Greta Thundberg as the "reasonable" "straight talker" that you think she is. I think she is a sad, angry young lady who lives in terror and fear and wants to spread that terror and fear to others. We just have a difference of opinion of her based on what we have seen and heard from her and based on our different interpretations of the climate crisis.

Quote (Ironic Metallurgis)

The sin is what our so-called leaders do, much more than what they say.
Agreed. Though, I will say that the hypocrisy does seem pretty sinful to me. But, you're correct in that their inaction (or poor actions) are actually more sinful / wasteful.

RE: How do they do it

Quote:

I think she is a sad, angry young lady who lives in terror and fear and wants to spread that terror and fear to others.

I think she's an optimistic, angry person. Optimistic because she obviously thinks that she can still make a difference; angry because her youthful impatience sees a world sitting on its collective hands and not doing enough. Given that we are sitting on our collective hands, she rightly should be fearful. Aside from her, there is a large segment of the scientific community that thinks we're on the verge of a tipping point, such that the sheer inertia of the existing momentum will carry us towards the catastrophic changes even if we stopped everything in its tracks now.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16082021/climat...

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKorP55Aqvg
FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies forum1529: Translation Assistance for Engineers Entire Forum list http://www.eng-tips.com/forumlist.cfm

RE: How do they do it

Tugboat,

You've made some challengeable posts here today (and I haven't wasted my time challenging them) but this one is way out of line.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

RE: How do they do it

(OP)
It just gets better and better.

Im pulling rank. This is my thread. Get back on topic. It's not about any individual, you, me or Greta.

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