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# European Energy Crisis4

## European Energy Crisis

(OP)
The energy crisis looks like it's going to develop into a full-blown catastrophe, yet there is very little media attention. For those not aware, natural gas & electricity prices are at record levels and we're only one week into the "heating season".

UK gas prices reached £4/Therm, equivalent to $54/MMBtu (no I didn't misconvert that, but I'll understand if you feel the need to double check). Electricity prices are at astonishing levels right across Europe. Ireland seems likely to be the first to fail as they're at the end of the gas supply chain and currently have the highest electricity prices. This winter Europe will be at the mercy of the weather, mild & windy and it may be ok. But if it's cold, the level of disaster coming is hard to conceive. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well media is talking about it here too. #### Quote (SVT Published 25 SEPTEMBER 2021) High electricity prices could be even higher this autumn Electricity prices are now historically high in southern Sweden. So high that oil power plants have become profitable. Prices may rise even more this autumn when the British electricity grid is connected to the Nordic grid. "Fossil and too expensive" is a common description of the oil power plant in Karlshamn, which is usually used as a backup solution for the electricity supply. But now the power plant has been up and running already in late summer. Still fossil - but profitable to drive for owner Uniper. - It has to do with the fact that we have a shortage situation in southern Sweden. When the Karlshamnsverket is bid on the Nordic electricity market, it is usually the last plant. It is an indication of the shortage situation we have, says Torbjörn Larsson, press manager at Uniper Sweden. - Prices are historically very high, especially in southern Sweden. Among other things, we have high continental prices. Since then, we have also shut down planable power such as nuclear power and heating plants, which means that southern Sweden has become more dependent on imports, says Pontus de Maré, who is operations manager at Svenska Kraftnät. Half the price in northern Sweden If you compare the electricity prices in southern Sweden with the north in September, it was half the price in the north. The interconnected international power lines are noticeable in the south. There, the difference from Denmark and Germany is only four percent. But this autumn, a new - really expensive foreign electricity market will be connected in our power lines - the British, with almost double the price of electricity. - It will then have an impact here in the Nordics as well, prices will then rise in Sweden and Norway, says Pontus de Maré. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis My energy bill has gone up 40% compared to previous supplier who has gone bust! Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement. ### RE: European Energy Crisis My opinion is, unfortunately, they are about exactly what they should be. The prices have been depressed since 2008 due to two reasons, #1 oversupply from fracking and shale sources now starting to deplete and #2 lack of serious demand since the financial crisis and lately C19. If it wasn't for the C19 pandemia, we would have seen this last year. Alternative energy source development has also been inhibited by low fossil fuel prices, as has exploration for ever more scarce fossil reserves. Welcome to the level playing field. This baby has been growing up in the wood pile for the last 13 years. He's tired of being ignored. ### RE: European Energy Crisis It would seem that the instant crisis might be temporarily addressed in local towns by community heating of perhaps 10% of residences. Instead of everyone heating their houses with non existent natural gas they may elect to heat just 10% of the houses until spring or until the crisis is over. Maybe the house that has a wood stove or peat stove might be elected. And while everyone is smelling their neighbors, they can also discuss throwing out the politicians that are responsible for the mess. As undesirable as it sounds, it beats freezing to death. "...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick ### RE: European Energy Crisis The only politicians that are responsible for this (in the USA) are those that voted to allow basically unhindered export of natural gas in the form of LNG. You can see that the need for prior approval of gas export contracts was eliminated several years ago by TEXAS SENATORS Ted Cruze and John Cornyn leading the effort. You have been set up. You can easily see that US gas prices started rising with the amount of LNG exported, also coinciding with the startup of major LNG export terminals. But of course not exporting LNG would only delay the same, if not worse price increases in the domestic market by a few years at best.. ### RE: European Energy Crisis It will likely get worse... Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (The only politicians that are responsible for this (in the USA) are those that voted to allow basically unhindered export of natural gas in the form of LNG.) It's a lot trickier than that... Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis Exactly. It is not a political thing by anything more than accelerating the price rise in the US by a few years. The real problem is that demand is breaching supply and supply cannot be miraculously increased any more as it has in the past. This is the pinch point date. Oct 2021. Write it down. We seem to forget that these are the same prices we saw just before the advent of fracking and shale gas production. ### RE: European Energy Crisis How is it not political when a certain political party keeps banning practices that increase production and banning permit issuance? ### RE: European Energy Crisis Increasing production only accelerates this problem. You'll fly ever faster into the bridge abutment. Looking for needles in haystacks is not profitable for oil companies either. Reserves have not been getting replaced for years. The only oil companies still in business are looking for "means of transition". Those mythical cities of black gold do not exist. But I know where you might find 50 KBOD on the other side of Africa. All you have to do to use it is live there. It's not yet profitable to export it. Maybe in 5yrs it will be. If you want to talk politics, see who it was that lifted restrictions on flaring. Chickens. More like both the gorilla and elephant are now taking their ringside seats. This is why we've been working on batteries and electric cars for awhile now. It wasn't really because everyone wanted one. Do you think. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Europe could have spent the last few decades converting their conventional power over to combined cycle which is much more efficient and better suited for natural gas. But they decided to chase the climate change boogeyman instead, and here we are now. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Is it not natural gas price increases that we are talking about??? You can't go on and on building combined cycle power plants without fuel to feed them. When you have supply limits, the alternative is only to reduce demand, or face higher and higher prices for what you can get. End of story. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Yes, combined cycle power burns substantially less natural gas to make the same amount of energy. If a region eliminates all of its conventional power plants in favor of combined cycle they could easily reduce their gas requirements by 25% or more. We very much have the technology to cut our greenhouse gases today, but we choose not to. Instead we chase unicorns with this renewable nonsense. ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) There's no crisis in the US, just a spike in prices which is not that big a deal (if prices stay at current levels for long the shale industry will be making so much profit they won't be able to resist investing/ increasing production). In Europe, there is a very real prospect of factories being shutdown along with rolling blackouts (even worse if the grid operators don't manage it very well, Texas was minutes from disaster earlier this year). The cause of this is the energy policies of European governments, shutting down coal/ nuclear and preferring a combinatoin of RE/ Gas. As an example just 10 years ago over 60% of UK electricity came from reliable coal/ nuclear, now it's just 20%. A dramatic reduction in resiliance. The US is in a much more robust situation but politicians there are pursueing the same disasterous policies as Europe... ### RE: European Energy Crisis Sure. You are right. That's why I couldn't breath in London. Bring on more coal. As I said, this problem will visit the US. It will be delayed for a couple of years while gas companies line their pockets by increasing prices in both the export and domestic markets in the meantime. ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) Due to wind/ solar there's little point building CCGTs in parts of Europe now. CCGTs in Ireland are operating at about 33% efficiency due to performing load-following duties, little better than open cycle turbines. Regardless, majority of baseload should be reliable plants with capability of months of storage on site. Like it used to be. Gas is only reliable in comparison to renewables. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well said and entirely true. When your base load is covered by gas, you don't need more. You just need to keep the fuel cheap and your potential supplies secure. If you can't do that, more RE works just as well, if not better. With this news, there's nothing I want more than another pumped storage wind-electric power plant. And maybe an electric car. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Hope you can see this. UK energy usage and source in almost real time. Not much open cycle GT. https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk Politicians like to panic, they need activity. It is their substitute for achievement. ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (How is it not political) @Tug... It is political, but much deeper... and without inflaming the audience, it is part of conservation and climate change. Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (Sure looks like the chickens are coming home to roost) ...as they say, "It's time to pay the piper.". Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (There's no crisis in the US) You're not aware of it, yet... but, it's coming. Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis Looks like CCGT comes on every day at 6am and runs till 8pm. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Price rises aren't a serious problem, though they might be a political one in some countries and we might see state support or subsidies for suppliers. The real issue is if there just isn't the supply to cover the resurgence in demand - which I agree with @1503-44, we'd have seen it last year if it weren't for Covid, but that doesn't change the fact that supply isn't that elastic and it's a big change in demand in a short time. ### RE: European Energy Crisis This has been building for years. The politicians have always kicked it into the next generation to sort out. This is just the start of it. There are a load of very old reactors and no real plan to do something about lost capacity. ### RE: European Energy Crisis And no time left to build all that we would need. If the US tried to meet all projected demands as of today with nukes, it would take 50 years to build enough just to cover what's being used today. At this point it is physically impossible to shoot around the 8 ball. It looks like reduction in demand will be a forced reduction. ### RE: European Energy Crisis It is political because these are long term issues being dealt with by people whose long term only stretches to the next election. So when the ban nukes bandroll came after Fukishima, no one in charge gave a thought to what was going to happen in 10 years time other than "more wind". We've all had 10 years of artificially low energy costs but everyone's got used to it and having spot prices low and pretty steady The shock could be the same as the 1973 oil price increase. It was always going to be difficult to navigate the change from single massive generation plants to more distributed, variable energy sources such as wind or solar. No simple answers here. Remember - More details = better answers Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it. ### RE: European Energy Crisis The Germans with there smart grid stuff are doing interesting things. But I suspect a lot of people won't be happy with others being in control of their electricity demand. And would prefer an all or nothing for everyone instead of them being able to selective load and unload. Most countries the only control the grid has over solar inverters is by letting the frequency rise to over 50.2hz so they all shutdown. But then that's an all or nothing strike and usually triggers a low frequency event very quickly with the drop in supply power. Must admit I have my place set up so if the inverter is taken out by the grid frequency the house basically shuts down apart from the fridge and freezer running. I can over ride it if we are staying there. They have tested it once here and it caused days of instability so I believe they have decided to not use it again. ### RE: European Energy Crisis It may be that Putin is withholding gas thru the Ukraine to the EU in order to pressure EU officials to allow unregulated gas to flow thru Nordstream 2. The EU wants to regulate the NS2 gas in that the supplier cannot be the same as the distributor, but that cuts out some profits that the russians are pursuing. If the EU gives Putin his way, then the gas may begin to flow again thru the Ukraine to the EU. "...when logic, and proportion, have fallen, sloppy dead..." Grace Slick ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) Russia may be able to ramp up supplies to Europe and they are pressuring Germany to allow it be done through NS2 rather than Ukraine. But they haven't caused this crisis by witholding gas. Russian gas output so far this year has been at historic highs. It doesn't look like they have the capacity to save Europe. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Russia will ensure the gas flows as long as the bill is paid, like they have done for every single day during the worst part of the Cold War. They never missed a day. Anything else you've heard came from Ted Cruz' mouth. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Running it through the Ukraine is likely a 'deal breaker' for political reasons... Russia can bide their time to achieve this. Russia does not want the Ukraine to capitalise on this venture. Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis Of course, if the pipeline does run through the Ukraine, Russia could later use this an excuse for occupying the rest of the country, "to protest their national interests". John R. Baker, P.E. (ret) EX-'Product Evangelist' Irvine, CA Siemens PLM: UG/NX Museum: The secret of life is not finding someone to live with It's finding someone you can't live without ### RE: European Energy Crisis It doesn't need to do that... Crimea separated from the Ukraine because of Ukranian government corruption. Russia did not invade or occupy... Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis My understanding is that the corruption in the Ukraine reached its pinnacle during that period when the Russians had installed their own hand-picked 'President'. The 'occupation' of the Crimea came only after the former president returned to Russia and an anti-Russian leaning government was installed in Kiev. John R. Baker, P.E. (ret) EX-'Product Evangelist' Irvine, CA Siemens PLM: UG/NX Museum: The secret of life is not finding someone to live with It's finding someone you can't live without ### RE: European Energy Crisis Maybe Burisma should have hired better advisors? ### RE: European Energy Crisis Truth be told when the soviet union collapsed they left a lot of their crap behind. So if you were educated and not an alcoholic you had a chance of going to Russia but they left a significant number of ethnic Russians behind. Some say this was to provide an excuse to invade later. In the Baltic states they basically cleared out in under 48 hours. Those that were going back to Russia were collected and moved and then the border slammed down for the others. There is still what's called illegals with grey passports in the Baltic states. They were either born before that time in Russia or both parents are also grey passports. They do sometimes hold internal Russian passports but they don't have international passports and required to comply with visas regulations so they can't stay in Russia or work there. They can get proper citizenship if they jump through some hoops such as speak the local lingo, but there are loads of them that can't or won't jump through the hoops. The ex soviets around me say that Ukraine was left was some pretty nasty types as was Belarus mainly because of Chernobyl. A lot of criminal types engineered going there because of the amount of resources that were being moved there to deal with the reactor and international aid which was getting pumped in to the likes of Gomel. And to be honest even before the collapse of the soviet union the locals were not very pleasant. Odessa was a prime vacation spot for most of the Baltics so they had visited them. The current proper modern Russians don't like the ethnic Russians left behind. As my mate puts it "they talk and act like trash its no wonder everyone hates Russia when they are exposed to them all the time". I had zero clue about all this before I moved here, also my views and understanding of WW2 eastern front have also changed since I have been here. And it doesn't match what we were taught at school about it. ### RE: European Energy Crisis I am not, Its complicated and there is a lot of very hot tempers created by the subject by both sides. Not with standing that most of the industry and leaders came out of the communist peaking order. Mainly because they knew everyone and knew who to go speak to and where the resources were sitting ready for the picking. Its really not as I expected after my UK education, there was and is a lot more in play than most of us in the West have any clue about. Have a google about the Tallinn ferry the Estonia that sank on the way to Sweden. The Kursk is also in play. Most of the adult population over 50 have soviet pensions due to them as well. Quiet how that all works I really don't know. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Many of the "truths" one learned in school are anything but, and those are the ones they told you about. ### RE: European Energy Crisis I wouldn't say they were untruths. But the focus shall we say was different. ### RE: European Energy Crisis On the energy note Poland which is 70% coal powered I suspect just triggered the start of it leaving the EU as well. They will be particularly hard hit by EU energy policy. ### RE: European Energy Crisis This thing with them turning of the solar inverters If remember right you say they do it when there is to much power on the grid or/and when there is to little? “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) The EU are currently trying to shut down a mine/ power plant which supplies 6% of Polands electricity. ### RE: European Energy Crisis The main reason being it lowers the ground water levels in the area around it and off course the goal to fossil carbon at some point. All the solitons are in place but it's hard to realize them maybe a total crash of the whole system is what is needed. One thing I realized which was a flaw in my thinking was that these pump storages which I believe will be a most since one problem is to preserve energi when there is to much of it and then use it when there is to little. Is that there need to be mountains or height to be able to make them, and that preserving nature is often a hindrens. But whit open mining or mines you really have half the jobb done. Anyone who knows if this has been done somewhere? Turning an old mind or open pit mind into a pump storage? I mean the nature values has already been destroyed so it can only become better if it would be reused for that. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (RedSnake) Anyone who knows if this has been done somewhere? Turning an old mind or open pit mind into a pump storage? If you count slate quarries, then Dinorwig fits the bill. Makes a really good visit (not the one my then early-teenage daughter and her school friend were expecting, but since it was lashing down with rain at the beach that day, they barely complained). A. ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (The EU are currently trying to shut down a mine/ power plant which supplies 6% of Polands electricity.) and for good reason... lignite is one of the worst coals for carbon footprint. Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis If you count slate quarries, yes I do a man made hole in the ground. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis Thia lot seem to use something like that https://www.quarrybattery.com/ Doesn't seem to be much progress though.... This lot are trying to develop something using some sort of "magic" fluid with density 2.5 times tha tof water. I can't find out what it is, but looks to be some sort of metal (magentite?) in a water mix. Again, great website, not much action. https://www.rheenergise.com/ But it means things get a lot smaller and you can use lower hills. Remember - More details = better answers Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Maybe a good way to recycle drilling mud? It's quite dense and pumpable. ### RE: European Energy Crisis hmm this RheEnergise company have this argument "or example there are so many more hills at 150m than at 375m." True but our largest waterpower station Stornorrfors only have a fall height of 75 meters and the Dinorwig Power Station 65 meters. That is good to know someone is thinking outside the box like the The Quarry Battery Company “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis zeus slashing it down with rain in wales Shock horror.... Is that one of those pump storage schemes like we have in Scotland that had shite loads of ground removed more than even remotely possible and then the claim nothing to see here governor . With a 60 ton road leading into the mouth of the beast? ### RE: European Energy Crisis BTW Pump storage is nice in theory if you have a nuke near by. But in the reality the economics of it are extremely borderline if the Scottish ones are anything to go by. They are extremely good at peak loads for about an hour max but then it takes a nuke for the next 12 hours during the night to pump it back up. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well the best us of them are to pump them up with wind and solar, when power generation exceeds demand. Using powerplants for that, that are not flexible like nuke or coal mening you can't turn them on or of as fast or change the output after demand isn't smart, those kinds of powerplants are usually base power. Then you need something to take the top loads when demand rises and to store in when you have to much power and even out wind and solar. If your inverter gets turned of when it generats the most power because the grid can't take it, that is not smart.. Just because the only way they can use your solar power is to close down a coal plant which they want do because it takes to long to start it up again if they need more power. Keeping it the inverter running would not be a problem if there where some other place to store the power. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis I have a way round them shutting me down.. But I suspect its illegal. It involves relay off the fault switch on the inverter which cuts the house off the grid. And then the battery takes the charge. It just leaves the freezer and fridge connected cuts the heatpump out etc. I can override it if I am home. ### RE: European Energy Crisis With home do you mean there at "summer house"? “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis 1.7 GW for five hours is worth having. When built, I suppose the thinking was that it was conveniently halfway between Wylfa and Trawsfynydd, so a seven hour recovery was doable. The haul road is pretty substantial but, after a century or two of slate quarrying in that valley, not especially out of place. A. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Tom Murphy a professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego posted a paper to disscussing the size of the physics problem that energy storage is. Pump Up the Storage The paper was published in 2011, the statements seem to be approximately valid today. The paper addresses the size of the grid storage problem in the US, For the purposes of discussion of this issue Grid US is approximately equal to Grid Europe. The paper proposes that to fully balance an all renewable power source environment, risking rolling blackouts for capacity reasons once in 10 years, the storage needs to equal 7X of the portion of the load being balanced (a week of light winds or cloudy days, your choice if you want full or partial replacement). The paper ends up by stating that for the US one not very practical way of providing for the entire US pumped storage demand is to use Lake Ontario as the lower pond, and the upper great lakes as the upper pond, The swing volume of the upper pond would be about 1m and the lower pond around 12 meters. Please remember this paper is not intended to present a practical solution, just that this is not a small problem, We cant fix power storage by just by turning off dispatch-able power, and letting "economics magic" solve the problem. I suppose it will take at least one more Texas sized power outage clearly related to the storage problem to get the attention of the political types. Then they might start discussing a better balance between the various green issues (ie what and how much dispatch-able power are we to have available. The demand for disposable power comes from reliability requirements, so a choice to let reliability suffer could also be made). ### RE: European Energy Crisis Wind/Solar-Pumped Storage (WSPS) can be a ferfect solution, if it can be scaled to the size of the grid, or the grid can be scaled to the WSPS. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=hierro+pumped+storage&am... Pumped storage is widely implemented in many localities in Spain. And sometimes not even coupled with RE at all. Water is pumped to the reservoir at night when electricity is cheap and then used to run the turbines during the day. ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) Pumped storage is useful for daily load balancing. There's no prospect of any storage technology being able to balance the weeks long lulls from unreliables. Even if stupendous amounts of money was spent for a weeks storage they will still need to be backed up with conventional generation for the occasions where the lulls last longer than a week. ### RE: European Energy Crisis @SSCon... shows you how difficult and serious the problem really is... and it's going to get a lot more interesting, if my crystal ball is any indication. Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis Did yo get your crystal ball? Mine has been lost in the mail for ages. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis Amazon? Rather than think climate change and the corona virus as science, think of it as the wrath of God. Feel any better? -Dik ### RE: European Energy Crisis How has the prospect of battery storage changed any of these estimates? The report cited by FacEngrPE was 10 years old. A lot has happened in 10 years with respect to both battery technology and entrepreneurs investing in batteries, both in their production and their availability as part the power grid infrastructure. Here is California, the organization that manages the grid, California ISO (Independent System Operator) has a website where you can track the status of the state's power grid including the contribution of various power sources as well as the current usage. I occasionally visit their site if for no other reason than to see how much are renewables contributing to the grid versus more traditional and conventional power generating technologies. Recently I noticed that they're starting to include 'Batteries' as one of the sources, or at least including it as part of the available statistics. Granted, the contribution is minuscule, at the moment, but I suspect that that will change in time. Of course, batteries are not a true 'source' of power, but since the site is showing the current contribution to the current status of the grid, it can be a source at any one moment. Below is a graph of what yesterdays charge/discharge curve looked like: You can clearly see that the batteries are charging during the day and discharging in the evening. From the profile (and this is consistent with other days that I've looked at), it would seem that these batteries are being used to balance a solar farm since the numbers match almost exactly the periods of sunshine and darkness. Now, based on checking the values, which you can do from the screen using your cursor, it appears that the maximum discharge rate is just under 1,000 MW's, not a lot compared to other 'sources', but certainly something that can help. I suspect that over time, these numbers will go up as I think the state operators are adding batteries as part of their improvement project. For anyone interested, here's the link the California ISO site: https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/index.ht... To see the status of different 'sources', select the 'Supply' option from the list in the middle of the page. John R. Baker, P.E. (ret) EX-'Product Evangelist' Irvine, CA Siemens PLM: UG/NX Museum: The secret of life is not finding someone to live with It's finding someone you can't live without ### RE: European Energy Crisis There’s a company down the road from me developing some interesting technology that could be used for energy storage. Not my area of expertise but I’m curious to hear what people think: https://www.peregrineturbine.com/ ### RE: European Energy Crisis There was reportage about Estonia power production on Swedish Public TV today. It is the dirtiest in Europe, since they are burn oil shale. One reason for this is that they do not want to be dependent on Russian power production ( my comment which is understandable) but they are looking at burning other renewable energi sources instead, one problem they have is that most of the workers in the oil shale quarries are ex Russians (Russian speaking minority), so they are afraid that Russia will start meddling in things if they change the production to fast. And of course they have the same problem/argument that there will be a lot unemployed people if they shut this down. The next reportage was about Chalmers University research about making natrium batteries, they have made great progress and now they are looking at how to making a viable long term product. And Northvolt AB is building a factory in Skellefteå for the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric cars and for energy storage it will be the largest in Europe. One assembly site will be in Polen, but I wonder how that will go if Polen don't start following the EU rulings or tries to make a Pexit. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) The cost of building a battery to store a couple of days energy from a nuclear power plant is more than the cost of a nuclear power plant! ### RE: European Energy Crisis Why would anyone want to store nuclear energi from a powerplant in a batteri I do not get it? “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) If you're using batteries to even out an intermittent energy supply it'd actually be cheaper to build a reliable nuclear powered energy supply and not have to worry about storage at all. The point of the comparison is to show the absurd cost of grid scale battery storage and that you'd have to be innumerate to suggest it could play any role in mittigating the current energy crisis. ### RE: European Energy Crisis I am not suggesting anything. But in our case it is not possible because our government have decision that we can't build any new nuclear plants only replace the ones we have. And we still haven't found somewhere to store our waste. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) Not directed at you, just a general frustration with people who propogate the fallacy that storage can bring forth a utopian solar/ wind powered grid. ### RE: European Energy Crisis I just read a press release (link below) from the California ISO where they've recently increased the grid's battery capacity to 1,500 MW with plans to add an additional 1,500 MW by the end of the year. Link to the press release: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&a... John R. Baker, P.E. (ret) EX-'Product Evangelist' Irvine, CA Siemens PLM: UG/NX Museum: The secret of life is not finding someone to live with It's finding someone you can't live without ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) Without reading it, I'm confident it doesn't contain an energy unit. Now why would a press release about energy storage not contain any energy units? ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well, the graphs still shows that approximately 1,000 MW of capacity is still online, so I guess if you subtract the 300 MW from the reported 1,500 MW... John R. Baker, P.E. (ret) EX-'Product Evangelist' Irvine, CA Siemens PLM: UG/NX Museum: The secret of life is not finding someone to live with It's finding someone you can't live without ### RE: European Energy Crisis John, 1500 MW is a rate not a capacity. The sparkies will be more interested in figures for Mega-Watt-Hours than in a Mega-Watt discharge rate for an unknown time period. -------------------- Ohm's law Not just a good idea; It's the LAW! ### RE: European Energy Crisis Storage of nuclear energy for a number of days? Sounds like a misleading article by an anti-nuke proponent. More reasonable would be a much smaller battery bank to provide peaking power. Rather than 100% of plant output for several days, 15% or 25% of plant output for several hours. Days to hours = 1day/24hours = 4.167% 25%/100% = 25% 4.166% x 25% = 1.04% A reasonable cost may be 1% of the reported cost. -------------------- Ohm's law Not just a good idea; It's the LAW! ### RE: European Energy Crisis Why argue about batteries. It's just one part in the very large puzzle of how the problem as a whole is being addressed. 100% nuke is also not the answer. The Polish EU problem has, as of this moment, not been the result of burning coal. Poland's ideology no longer appears to accept the conditions they agreed to abide by, as all member states did, when they joined. ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) Batteries/ wind/ solar are not addressing the problem, they are creating the problem. I doubt the Poles expected the EU to try to dismantle their electricity generation grid when they joined. ### RE: European Energy Crisis The problem with Polen and the coal mine/pit/quarry is that, it is lowering the groundwater in Czechoslovakia. So it is not just one thing. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis SScon your statements do not seem to match facts. Can you substantiate your opinions about solar, batteries and the Polish electric system being dismantled. German news DW reports quite the opposite in regards to Poland's electric grid. Baltic states (and Poland) to decouple power grids from Russia, link to EU by 2025 Baltic states and Poland put an end to years of bickering and signed an agreement to decouple their power grids from Russia. The EU will negotiate with Russia as to how to make the transition as smooth as possible. https://www.dw.com/en/baltic-states-to-decouple-po... ### RE: European Energy Crisis Ballparkish numbers. I'll use tesla powerwalls for storgae, not that they are ideal, or cheap. This was distracting, ignore it. Solar- Average output over the year 4 hours nameplate per day. Obviously a pure solar grid would need at least 20 hours of average demand storage, just to get through one night. So for a 4 kWh/day house, you need a 1 kW panel, and 3.3 kWh of batteries, which would cost a little more than the panel. But, winter is coming. In winter you can only rely on an average of 1 hour of nameplate a day, ie 1 kWh from a 1 kW panel. So to deal with typical winter days you need a system with a panel that is 4 kW. The reality is that 3 dull days in a row are not unusual, so you need to be able to store at least 3 days of 4 kWh per day, which brings the battery up to 15 kWh. So that's why storage gets to ludicrous capacities if you are relying on renewables alone. Wind is worse, and wind droughts are thousands of km across, as the Europeans are finding out. The wind is not 'always blowing somewhere'. Speaking for myself, I do not have a 15kWh battery and a 4 kW panel, I have a 1 kW panel, a 3 kWh usable battery, and a generator, which I run almost every day in winter. Cheers Greg Locock New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm? ### RE: European Energy Crisis So, renewables are greating the storage problem, or renewables are greating expensive electricity? Or is it that electricity would be expensive all the time, if there was no RE. The facts today are more like, When the wind blows and the sun shines, the price of electricity is cheaper. ### RE: European Energy Crisis When the wind blows and the sun shines, the price of electricity is cheaper. But when the renewables stop you still need the despatchable power stations that you thought you were getting rid of, and/or unfeasible amounts of storage. Cheers Greg Locock New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm? ### RE: European Energy Crisis Thinking out of the box, and remembering that perfection is the enemy of excellence; hoe about using renewables and excess nuclear capacity to produce hydrogen from water. hen using the energy and hydrogen to upgrade hydro-carbons to propane or butane, running on an energy available cycle. I understand that a large part of the carbon footprint of gasoline and diesel is the hydro-carbons burned at the refinery to generate the heat to support the process. I suppose that such a system would not be economically feasible today, but times are changing. We are starting to see carbon taxes, and carbon taxes have the potential to change the economics of fuel production. Yes, we would still be using some carbon based fuel, but a levels much less than today. Two added benefits: Nuclear and renewable power would be made portable, and a by product of the production of hydrogen will be oxygen. -------------------- Ohm's law Not just a good idea; It's the LAW! ### RE: European Energy Crisis They are working already doing exactly that. I have a battery on my solar 6.4kwh which I am happy enough with. I have got my place down to 250 w when we are not there. Which is basically the internet routers and heat pump on standby and the robot grass mower and fridge freezer. . The battery can last the night. But when we are there no chance. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Greg, are you really laying out for Tesla Walls?? You can roll your own with 3X the storage for the same price and not need an internet connection. Keith Cress kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com ### RE: European Energy Crisis No way. I get lead acid AGMs for about$1600 for 3 kWh usable, 10 kWh nominal. 9 year life (I have a second string made up of the survivors from the primary strings from the last generation, 2009, and they are still usable).

Powerwall is not recommended for off grid in Australia, and certainly is not a cheap solution. I was going to put a price equation in but decided to concentrate on the multiplier you need for both generation and storage to cope with real life. The takeaway from that note is that a purist renewable solution is 4 times what you'd think just from looking at average daily consumption. I've struck out the Powerwall part in my previous post.

Cheers

Greg Locock

New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

### RE: European Energy Crisis

Power walls are pretty awful to be honest on grid as well.

Very expensive.
They can be adjusted remotely you have no say in it.
The battery chemistry is li-ion so they can go on fire.

My LiFePO4 is 6.4kWh usable cost 3500 $good for 10 000 charge cycles it speaks to the inverter so and there are off grid inverters which it is compatible with. Zero maintenance. Down side is max charge rate is 3.2 kW discharge 6.4 kW It has a quite tight environmental window and if you go outside it then you charge and discharge is heavily downgraded. ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote: Very expensive. They can be adjusted remotely you have no say in it. The battery chemistry is li-ion so they can go on fire. 100% agree and so I'd never use one! You can find lots of youtubes where someone had a wall or two installed and then discovered they couldn't turn it on because it has to talk with the utility's computers and some utilities don't have a computer or the SW to talk back to the wall. Keith Cress kcress - http://www.flaminsystems.com ### RE: European Energy Crisis "But when the renewables stop you still need the despatchable power stations that you thought you were getting rid of, and/or unfeasible amounts of storage." Or load management. We know that incredible amounts of storage is not possible, therefore load management must also be part of "The Solution". When all known solutions are outside of the acceptable range, one is forced to reconsider what is acceptable. I think we are going to have to "change the chip". Solutions will only be valid across a certain range of "X". ### RE: European Energy Crisis I found a study that shows an average carbon footprint of 18%, and I am not going to quibble over the difference, but that number was based on an average of 12 g CO2 eq./MJ But that is an average of a range. The carbon intensity of crude oils ranges from 4 to 50 grams of CO2 equivalent per megajoule. Further, some of the fields with the lightest crude flare extensively, driving their carbon and carbon equivalent numbers very high. As we move to heavier sources, tars, and shale oils, the percentages will increase. I don't have the numbers. but SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage) exraction drives the percentages up even higher by way of the amounts of natural gas burned to generate the steam. Source: "the International Council on Clean Transportation" ICCT Volumes of upstream emissions vary over a wide range that may not be adequately expressed or explained by a google search for a single percentage number. Reduction of upstream emissions is a work in progress. Many oilfields, both light and heavy, are emitting carbon and carbon equivalents several times greater than the overall average. -------------------- Ohm's law Not just a good idea; It's the LAW! ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) #### Quote (SScon your statements do not seem to match facts. Can you substantiate your opinions about solar, batteries and the Polish electric system being dismantled. 1503-44) When Poland joined the EU nearly all their electricity came from coal, due to EU policies it is now down to 70%. The EU want it to go to zero. It's not hard, this is an explicit policy to dismantle Polands reliable electricity generators with expensive, unreliable REs. You might agree with the policy but don't pretend it isn't real. Poland moving from the reliable/ cheap Russian grid to the unreliable/ expensive EU grid makes the opposite point you think. Numbers for batteries have already been provided. That solar is useless in a European winter is something that should be obvious to all. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well this is also a new invention instead of batteries, not sure how well it will take of though. Azelio specializes in energy storage with electricity and heat production. They manufacturing energy storage, which is charged by heat and provides electricity via a Stirling engine. The technology is revolutionary in that the energy becomes controllable, which can make renewable energy available around the clock. The energy is stored in recycled aluminum, from where it is converted into electricity and heat with a total efficiency of up to 90 percent. The solution is scalable, environmentally friendly and cost-effective from 0.1 MW up to 100 MW. I kind of like Stirling engines even though they are a bit tricky, I think there is a lot that can be done to develop the concept and use of them. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (SSCon) Poland moving from the reliable/ cheap Russian grid to the unreliable/ expensive EU grid makes the opposite point you think. Not sure that is all true either. This is the days prices at Nord Pool. Polen has not the highest electrical prices in Europe and they do buy and sell to Nord Pool which this far has been a very reliable provider. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis SScon, AGAIN you parrot numerous Facebook hoax rumors that are not supported by German statistics or simple fact checks. Europe has southern member States that produce significant amounts of solar power during winter. Spain, France, Portugal, Germany, Italy and Greece beg to differ. Your credibility is beginning to suffer. You have reached the 3 strike limit. Game Over. https://factcheck.afp.com/german-solar-wind-power-... https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2021/02/fact-ch... ### RE: European Energy Crisis (OP) For a start, don't use Facebook. And linking articles fact-checking something I never said is rather pointless (but do keep on with the petty insults, it has the opposite effect you think). That there is significantly less sun in the northern latitudes of Europe during Winter versus Summer is not a rumor. Actually, the article you linked to which fact checked something about snow says the following: "The drop in solar energy production is likely not due to heavy snowfall blocking photovoltaic panels, but caused by winter's shorter days and overcast skies. This happens every year." It does indeed happen every year! Solar power is nigh on useless in northern lattitudes during winter. ### RE: European Energy Crisis I am further north than Poland and April to October I can get 65 kWh out of a my 8,5 kW inverter a day.With the wx good Usually over 1000 kWh per month. We get power from the Nordic grid via DC interconnects but the frequency reference is russian I think that's going to change next year. ### RE: European Energy Crisis If you interested my best winter day this year And best summer day ### RE: European Energy Crisis The grey "network reference" is that your consumption ? “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis That's pull from the grid Light blue battery charge Green self consumption. Dark blue battery discharge. Orange feed into grid. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Okey so with twice as many batteries you would almost be self sufficient. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis No chance with a 8.5 kW heatpump running in the winter That good winter day happens less than 5 times in three months most days you will be lucky to make 5 kWh. And it's due to be overcast cloud not snow on the panels. The inverter puts the battery into storage mode after 3 days less than 25% charge. If it's a good day it will kick out of it. But for 3 months it's hibernating. And we produce less than 300 kWh a month. ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote: The inverter puts the battery into storage mode after 3 days less than 25% charge. You mean that it stops pulling power from the batteri not do damage it? #### Quote: No chance with a 8.5 kW heatpump running in the winter Well only just looking at does charts you almost could. It would be interesting to se a chart where you run your 8.5 kW heatpump none of the charts above seems to have that outtake. There where some calculations end tests made they come to the conclusion that 10 kWh batterie storage was the most optimal regardless size of house. How much do you have 3-4 KWh? I just made a graphic assumption from the charts.. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis They both do one in heating mode, other in cooling mode. 6.4 kWh battery. When we are not there it can do the night. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Is that 6,4*0,75 = 4,875 kWh ? My graphic eyes can't get 6,4 out of that graf. Still think you should dubbel it. Less to pay and now that UK is in Nord Pool who knows what will happen with the prices. Okey I know you have fixed price so.. but anyway.. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis No lead acid you can on go down to 50% I can get 95% out of them. They are not cheap and the 6.4 is borderline economic to pay back in its life time. If we were there full time it would be worth going bigger. But as we only use 60% when we are not it wouldn't pay for itself. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well in Sweden today I predict your will get very little solar production. ### RE: European Energy Crisis just rain, rain, rain..... “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well where I live we actually has the most amount of sun hours per year around 1900 hours counted since 2017 in SE, most in the summer of course since it never gets really dark. We usually are tp four in the "sun league" they have over the summer in the weather report but then we are not allowed to count the evening hours since it is cheating because in the south of Sweden it gets dark so soon. Not that bad compared to Europe either. Maybe I should make a calculation for my summerhouse haven't bothered before I thought it would not pay off but who knows it might. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis You can probably make a useful amount of electricity, but if grid power is as low cost as the map above shows, and stays that way, the payoff may be elusive. Its the same for me, but for the opposite reasons. With more than 2500hr of sun/yr here and latest grid prices over 200€/MWh, the payoff is assured, as long as you actually buy enough electricity from the grid to have something to make a price and savings comparison. With the therms that are inherent with 2500h+ of sun, we need almost no electricity for heating. With cool air temperatures, we need none for air conditioning. Our major consumer is the kitchen refrigerator. It's impossible to justify installing solar panels when consumption is so small. Our Internet package costs more than all the energy we use, including LPG for water heating and diesel for the car. I think its actually impossible for us to use less electricity, unless we pull the refrigerator plug go to the market every day. ### RE: European Energy Crisis You need to buy a electric car “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote (Yankee Lima Charlie Sierra Golf) Well in Sweden today I predict your will get very little solar production. And you where 9 minutes to early! Maybe Madrid have more sun hours today? If that is where you are heading .. According to the map they should have. I think I will make a solarpanel calculation just for fun anyway, the worst thing that can happen is that I learn something.. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis That's only the energy power cost. There is another few things go onto that price and then tax. Start of this year I was 13 cents per kWh and now it's get near 20 cents. I will be sticking in another 8.5kw inverter to generate more power credit next year. ### RE: European Energy Crisis What is the kW of your sun panels? Right now I am just trying to see what the consumption is per month, average day, hour, min, max so forth.. And how much I pay. It seems half or more of it is static cost grid and powerline and in total with the electricity. Haven't goten to all that tax and other stuff, yet. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis Okey thanks. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis You also need to figure out how your local grid deals with net metering. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Yes I know, but I am in luck. My neighbor in the summerhouse has put in solarpanels. I think this picture is taken before that, seem to remember the last time I was in the box there where a signs saying it had a "back feed" on his fuse box. And I have cleaned up the box since the electrical company did bother with it after they where finished. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis Just find out from your neighbor what they are producing ### RE: European Energy Crisis I could it is there permanent home they live there the whole year. What was the brand of your inverter? I have looked at some but the amount of information on them are quite high and low. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis Kostal they are German and have all the fancy stuff for smart grid and internet etc built in as standard. https://www.kostal-solar-electric.com/en-gb/ I have the penticore plus with battery released. And the second one is the piko iq. I get mine from a company called mg-solar in Germany. The guy that runs it is very helpful and knows his stuff ### RE: European Energy Crisis Actually that is the only one I found this far, but to be honest I haven't had much time to search, that had really good data and specifications. I did not have the time to check where the company was from, but when I read the data sheets I thought this company must be German. That's good to know, that I have at least I one referens on them, then. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis We seem to have drifted off the main subject here and into the hobby forum.... The extraordinary gas spot market rates show no real signs of slowing down. You can't blame too many people for looking at this prior to middle of this year and thinking the price is pretty steady at ~50p/therm and now over 200. We had better hope the wind starts blowing pretty steadily... Remember - More details = better answers Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well it's was certainly blowing good today in Sweden and Denmark. The hobby as above is actually what's causing quite a bit of issues. The self production and consumption is killing the capital infrastructure accounts and making a mess of the min loading of the spinning assets. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Well I am not sure I agree the topic was European Energy Crisis and also the rising price of gas and electricity. Maybe for UK the gas prices is the big thing, but for the rest of Europe it is a mixed bag and every kWh counts. As I sade before the price for electricity may rice because of UK, if not joining Nord Pool at least for buying from it, meaning we who have low price mostly fossil carbon free electricity and heating need to do what we can to keep our costs down. Maybe it is a hobby for UK but for the rest of Europe it is not. With that said, I can ask Alistair the more specific detailed questions in the Hobby forum. ### RE: European Energy Crisis If Allstair's contention "that hobby (small) solar is causing capital infrastructure accounts problems", the rate structure is wrong. My opinion If solar is not connected to the grid in any way, the electric tariff should ignore it. If solar is grid connected, it should get a rate for energy produced, and a fee for the use of the connection (for the use of all of the available non energy services). If government policy requires this to provide less than full cost recovery, then it is the regulators responsibility to fill the void either by cost shifting or from the public purse. There are all sorts of ways this can work. The local utility here (Virginia USA) is no longer doing net metering, they want to meter the solar out, and meter grid power in (two separate meters, and a power suppler contract). That makes islanding your system more complicated. ### RE: European Energy Crisis That was one reason I thought I do this calculation just to se how it works. Today I have without finishing my numbers but half of what I pay is static cots. To get the electricity delivered through the line I pay 15 units of something per 1 kWh. How much of my actual consumed "energi cost" goes to the net provider from my "power supplier" I do not know. But if I would produce 1 kWh on to the grid. What is it then reasonable for me to pay for getting it to a consumer? The consumer will still have to pay 15 units of something, and I have to pay whatever a provider is paying to get the power to the costumer. The big problem is that the system manager need to know and be able to rely on the delivery and and have a good prediction on consumption to be able to regulate the grid, if he cant sell of the excess or buy when low there will be problems and high prices. And there the batteries and pump storages among other things comes in. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis Its because there was no main plan when it started and was too successful in some places. It was a short term political boost but the engineering hadn't been thought about. And they are a bit screwed where I am because we got 20 year contracts so they can't change things until they run out. They stopped doing expansions and new farms 1st of Jan this year. ### RE: European Energy Crisis And one of this issues is that if you have a 5 km line with 20 houses and 10 of them go off grid you still have pay the same capital costs as if there was 20. Which is why some places are insisting that people stay connected even if they are on a zero export contract. If they are not then the house is deemed not fit for habitation. Nobody seems to have an answer yet. To be honest zero export or controlled export which is demand defined by the grid manager seems a reasonable way to go. Plus everyone stays connected so all the infrastructure is maintained. ### RE: European Energy Crisis #### Quote: Which is why some places are insisting that people stay connected even if they are on a zero export contract. If they are not then the house is deemed not fit for habitation. Well I think that is okey, but they should normally not have to put the same amount of maintenance in those lines, at least not if they are temporarily "disconected" if the property owner do not buy power. “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis It's controling the export which is the issue. Zero feed in to manage the grid I can't see a problem with. Killing your inverter so you can't cover your own consumption and force you to buy electricity to sort the grid out I do have issues with. ### RE: European Energy Crisis Yes and as I understand it, it is because they have to much power on the grid and do not know what to do with it. So they turn of your power output and force you to consume because they don't want to turn off a coal powerplant somewhere. But instead they should allow you to load your batteries or have there own buffer batteries somewhere to even it out. They either need a more flexible base power provider so they can allow all renewables on the grid unless they can store the excess power. Still think you should get more batteries “Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“ Albert Einstein ### RE: European Energy Crisis So the real problem is excess power. Interesting. ### RE: European Energy Crisis There have been a few excess wind days reported in the midwest where the night time wholesale power cost went negative (too much wind, the windmills need to pay for their power to go into the grid). Not sure who actually pays this. Perhaps pay wind farms that have batteries to smooth their output (or similarly sized dispatch-able batteries) a better rate? ### RE: European Energy Crisis Analysts noted that Ukrainian flows are tracking around 3.4 Bcf/d on average through early October – in line with the September average but down from an August average of 3.8 Bcf/d. Year-ago flows, meanwhile, tracked closer to 6 Bcf/d. “Going forward, we model Russian imports into Europe ramping towards 17 Bcf/d through November-February,” TPH analysts said. This is largely accounting for the remaining room on the Ukrainian system, “which averaged around 7 Bcf/d in 4Q2020 should the Nord Stream 2 pipeline remain in gridlock.” Regardless of capacity, TPH said Russia’s ability to flow incremental volumes appears likely to come down to end-of-season domestic storage balances, which have capped exports of late despite record domestic production. As for demand, demand data across various countries appears to show demand destruction in play, according to TPH. October demand is up about 2 Bcf/d month/month at 29 Bcf/d, but lags its forecast of around 38 Bcf/d for October thus far. European natural gas stockpiles could be completely drained over the next few months, leaving the continent wholly dependent on Russian pipeline imports if this winter turns out to be unseasonably cold in both Europe and Asia, according to an analysis from Wood Mackenzie. Colder winter weather across the globe could raise European heating demand to 20 billion cubic meters (Bcm) and redirect up to 10.5 Bcm of cargoes from the continent to Asia. Combined, that would be greater than the 29 Bcm Wood Mackenzie anticipates would be in European storage at the end of March. “There is a risk storage levels could drop to zero,” said Wood Mackenzie Vice President of Gas and LNG Research Massimo Di Odoardo. If that happens, Europe would have to rely on “timely approval” of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (NS2) or increased Russian flows through Ukraine to avoid demand curtailments, according to Di Odoardo. NS2 could deliver up to 12.5 Bcm through the winter, but it is so far unclear whether the project would move forward in time. Meanwhile, Russia has shown some reluctance to provide additional pipeline shipments via Ukraine. However, Wood Mackenzie noted President Vladimir Putin has promised to stabilize the market, which could result in increased volumes on that route. Goldman Sachs Commodities Research analysts led by Samantha Dart said the remarks by Putin and other Russian officials reiterated statements made over the past few months. “In our view, uncertainty remains regarding potential Russian gas flows to Northwest Europe this winter,” the analysts said in a recent note to clients. Goldman expects shipments from existing pipelines to normalize from reduced levels starting in November, and NS2 will come online this winter, adding 10 Bcm of supply to the continent. “We see symmetrical risks to both these assumptions, as the recent decline in flows to Europe could reflect the lack of enough supply to feed both European and Russian gas storage sites and with the potential for the NS2 pipeline to bring additional [In the Know: Subscribe to NGI’s All New Access and gain the ability to read every article NGI publishes daily.] volumes once approved,” the analysts said. “Until there is greater clarity on Russia’s gas send-outs to Europe, we expect European Union gas prices to remain volatile and skewed to the upside given the need for industrial user gas demand rationing if Russian flows remain low in November and December.” European natural gas prices were again marked by volatility last week as panic over looming shortages continues. British and Dutch futures have been trading well above$30/MMBtu. The situation has prompted European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson to promise reforms by the end of the year to combat similar volatility in the future.

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the European Union (EU) would explore options to purchase more supplies and protect residents from huge price spikes.

If Russian flows increase this winter, Goldman expects EU prices to decline from current levels but remain above the threshold for gas-to-oil switching of $27/MMBtu at current oil prices “until we know more about winter weather,” the analysts said. Prices could decline further, to$17 by year’s end, if weather remains average, Goldman said.

Wood Mackenzie also expects prices to ease under normal weather conditions.

The consultancy predicts European storage would reach a record low 78% of capacity, or 87 Bcm by the end of October.

To meet demand, the continent would likely need around 58 Bcm of storage, leaving about 29 Bcm stockpiled by the end of March. That is below the five-year average, but “comfortably above” record lows, according to Wood Mackenzie. And while LNG imports are likely to be limited this winter as demand remains strong in Asia, rebounds in UK and Norwegian production as well as stronger exports from Algeria and Azerbaijan are forecast to increase pipeline supply compared to summer.

Still, whether prices go up or down would depend largely on the weather.

“The sky could be the limit for European gas prices this winter,” Wood Mackenzie said.

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/skys-the-limit-for...

### RE: European Energy Crisis

#### Quote:

So the real problem is excess power. Interesting.
In some places in Europe sometimes mostly during the summer I would think.

Since we have most of our power in the north of Sweden stored in water magazines for the waterpower they preserve the water and "even out" the sun and wind power by not opening the crane as much during summer when the magazines do not fill up so much, we do not have a lot of sun power here in the north yet though.
But we have also got problems exporting our excess power since the powerlines going south do not cut it.

But for some countries with a lot of coal or nuclear as base power it is harder to do that at an excess power input since you cant turn them on and off fast enough and the output flexibility is to low, so the only way to manage the grid when it is to much sun and wind and a lot of heat and no consumption is to turn of peoples inverters so the grid want go berserk.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

### RE: European Energy Crisis

It's not just Europe the same thing happens in Australia.

The power lines having dental floss properties for power transmission is also a factor.

They were never put in with planning for oppersite direction flow. So most are only scaled for what's at the end of them to consume.

I have a 8.5 kW feed in limit due to the power line limit and there is 2 commercial solar farms connected to the same substation that deals with the HV trunk. So I got the first inverter with no issues. The second one took some negotiations. Luckily I had ignored the installers and put the energy meter in. So it's no issue for me controlling my feed in.

The next level up is them going ripple receiver onto the inverters which can limit the output. But not all inverters have the capability to do that easily.

### RE: European Energy Crisis

As for what the gas problem is, what the charts tell me is simply that buyers were banking on the demand staying low. They didn't fill the storage tanks to usual levels, then got caught with their pants down when demand unexpectedly picked up. It seems Asian players did the same thing, so now there is some heavy competition to purchase what they can to get through the winter at higher demands. If the price stays high in the meantime, there may be some demand reduction. All in all, good practice for what's coming, sooner or later.

The selfmade "crisis" should expedite the final EU approvals of Nord Stream II.

### RE: European Energy Crisis

That's a bit more like it.

I agree that all this small micro generation, be it solar or wind has occurred in many places without any good plan on how to use it and control it.

To a certain extent it has probably been overtaken by advances in invertor control and battery systems that now allows better remote control than before.

I'm pretty sure an unintended consequence of the recent UK part power black out was that once the frequency dropped below some critical level, it wasn't helped by all those mini home solar systems dropping off the network and dropping I think about 1 GW of supply in total.

What was relatively easy even up to 10 years ago in terms of grid balancing has got a lot harder and all electricity networks are struggling to adapt to the change I understand.

And then it's not helped by China taking more LNG....

Remember - More details = better answers
Also: If you get a response it's polite to respond to it.

### RE: European Energy Crisis

There was a compulsory change of the grid variables a few years ago. They had it +- 0.2 Hz on the frequency but they changed it to 49.2 Hz or something like that.

### RE: European Energy Crisis

LittleInch, that's the fundamental cause of the blackout of the entire state of South Australia going black a few years back. The windmill operators had left some defaults on so when the supply in general went wonky and the frequency dropped all the windmills shutdown and caused a cascading failure.

Cheers

Greg Locock

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### RE: European Energy Crisis

Not that I know much about electrons, but I think they seek the path of least resistance. Like water, they prefer to go downhill, and if you want them to reverse, you have to pump.

### RE: European Energy Crisis

Well about the frekvens for Nord Pool this is what applies and since all of North Europe is connected they must have the same.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

### RE: European Energy Crisis

It was after the AUS event that they mandated that the inverter grid parameters get changed.

I thought it was mandatory that all grid tie were adjusted by a couple of years ago. They can be adjusted locally on mine but you need a password which I don't have

### RE: European Energy Crisis

The only time a solar inverter needs to be stopped is when the frekvens gets to high on the grid, and you can't pull down on any other power source.

At a rolling blackout they could be allowed to be on since if you disconnect a branch they could still provide power to others on that branch that hasn't got any solarpanels if the ones who have, have batteri backups, and if the owners want's to share, that is.
In that case the owner at least will have power as long as there is power in the batteries and still could generate power to load his batteries and power to the cut of branch if there is sun.

But then again rolling blackouts are usually made when the frekvens goes down and then there is no need to turn them of at all.

A inverter can not deliver anything else then 50 Hz, I made the assumption that inverters need to keep that quality to be allowed on the grid.

I think the problem might be that when they want to connect a branch again they need to know how much power is delivered from that branch otherwise the frekvens can sky rocket again when they connect it.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

### RE: European Energy Crisis

There is various parameters that will kick it out.

High voltage low voltage high freq low and a couple of other things if I remember I will post what mine are next time I am there.

I suspect I was incorrect earlier saying that they let the frequency go high. It was more likely it was high voltage as they are sync to the Russian grid. It was more likely high voltage. They killed a load of consumer equipment when they tried it. Must people did realise why thier router died that day. I didn't have anything go but the sister in law did and got it replaced after I spotted what happened in the inverter error logs.

I need to get my dynamic reactive power turned on. But need the installers password for that.

### RE: European Energy Crisis

I am not sure about that if the grid frequency goes high a suspect that your inverter will turn of because they do not want more power on the grid.
What happens then is that you can't provide power and you are also forced to consume power from the grid lowering the power overload on the grid, making the frequency go down.

If they would only turn of the output from your inverter to the grid and allow you to consume your own generated power and backup batteri power they will only get half the "effect" of there action so they will need to lower some other power source to get back to normal.
I think that they made it easy on themselves or haven't had time to fix this problem.
The minimum that would be acceptable in this situations is that the inverter would be allowed to load the batteries even if all power consumption is made from the grid.

Now we throw away good power because we can't store it somewhere when we have to much.

That things break when there is a blackout is not uncommon mainly because when the power comes back there can be big voltage fluctuations on the grid with many consumers reconnecting at the same time.

“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.“
Albert Einstein

### RE: European Energy Crisis

It shuts down there is a load of legal requirements to what call island you installation. It highly expensive. It's to protect the linesmen.

Some inverters have an emergency supply socket which is good for running freezers etc off which will remain live on battery power. But the kostal had enough advantages that I didn't bother with that

### RE: European Energy Crisis

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