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Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?
25

Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
I decided to run this as a separate companion to the "Educated Opinions" thread.

There definitely is some hanky-panky going on but by whom and against whom?

http://rankexploits.com/musings/2009/real-files-or-fake/

I hope you guys are all aware of the growing concern about a hacker (the only one on the planet I may not want to have tortured for months on end, the jury is out yet) - this guy has apparently hacked into the Hadley CRU and released lots of emails that apparently, and if true, show that some fudging was going on by the warmists.

Some of the mails quoted seem blatantly false to me but then again, some of the supposedly private emails of Maddoff and others in a like situation (.e.g. spin doctors and MPs in the UK) seem to have been written by idiots too.

I leave you to make your own minds up.

You can follow links at Climate Audit and Watts Up with that. Or do a Google.

You can download what is allegedly the hacked material at http://www.mininova.org/tor/3168330 because the original link is coming up "Object not found".

Er, it appears Hadley admit being hacked. They are quoted as admitting the files are genuine (I wonder if they may want to recant that when they see some of the emails released).

I have linked to the Blackboard site because they raise the question of hoax.
Could be.
Could be a genuine hack to download a mass of genuine data and then seed it with a few false documents.

The Hitler diaries are suggested by one as an object lesson.
We should remember that the Hitler diaries ultimately did a lot of harm to those who were taken in by them. The lesson is that while apparently targeted on the warmists, the real targets, if a hoax, may be the skeptics.



But if true, some heads will roll, or should roll even if they don't.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Let me be the first to reply.

- Steve

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I can't say anything other than wow after reading excerpts from emails.  If these documents hold up as genuine then everything that we have been told about warming since the 80's is in doubt.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

4
"If these documents hold up as genuine"

IF being the operative word.

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

First up, CRU is not part of Hadley, it is based at UEA.

Secondly, many of the emails do appear to be genuine.

Here is a fairly damning list

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2009/11/20/climate-cuttings-33.html

and here's the true believers response

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

There's some pretty damning evidence (if true) in there and CRU is claiming that it is genuine but everything taken out of context.  Not sure how some of these can be taken out of context.

It makes it a bit difficult to believe them that it was out of context when they say stuff like...

"Also, it is important for us if you can transfer the ADVANCE money on the personal accounts which we gave you earlier and the sum for one occasion transfer (for example, during one day)will not be more than 10,000 USD. Only in this case we can avoid big taxes and use money for our work as much as possible" -Stepan Shiyatov
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

5
Maybe this will be another evil organization finally caught out by the tax man.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

2
(OP)
Actually, that was of less concern to me.
In the real world of some researchers being cash rich and some with little or no funding, the cash rich Dr Briffa would be seen as something like Father Christmas but given that the funds are controlled, and where costs are rising all the time - the Russians were facing ever increasing helicopter costs (as stated elsewhere in the emails)and where some of the money was lost through changing exchange rates, as a cash strapped researcher you might want to preserve every bit you get and avoid paying taxes if you can.
It ain't ethical but how much money is there in the Russian pot for tree ring work?
So this could be all quasi legitimate.

Now if, as the one to pays the piper, there was evidence of calling the tune, then that wold be something more alarming. Did we get any instance of coercing/influencing others to manipulate data?
There was an example of one researcher saying he had done just about all he could to the data but the data basically wasn't going to show what they wanted and there is certainly a lot of back and forth about data sets.

By the way, if it had been me expecting a Russian visitor to arrive at Heathrow I'd have made damn sure to collect them and get them to Cambridge, not leave them to find themselves a hotel and make their own way out the next day, even if I was going to refund their costs.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Climate change is happening. The polar ice caps are shrinking. Science has shown that's a fact.

But we don't know if the climate change or shrinking of polar ice caps is caused by humans. What we do know is that the polar ice caps have increased and decreased in size continually for millions of years. We know that our climate has changed since the beginning of time.

Prudhoe Bay in Alaska is one of the largest oil fields in the United States. It's as far north as you can go in Alaska. Oil is made up of carbon, which means that Prudhoe Bay was once a tropical jungle with lush amounts of growth. It used to be much warmer than today! People that study the movement of continents have said that Alaska has generally stayed in the same location (i.e., it wasn't transported from the equator). So we know that the climate in Alaska used to be a lot warmer than it is today.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Polar caps aren't shrinking, in fact they are thickening.  What you are seeing is the outlying areas around the edge are decreasing but not the actual thickness.  Just wanted to clear that up.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I enjoyed the time lapse pics of the glaciers. However this paper, http://www.oism.org/pproject/GWReview_OISM600.pdf,
suggests this has been going on for a while. So has the rate of ice loss, or whatever the measurement is, doubled over the last 20 years, or not?

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

OWG, star for a great article.  I've only had the chance to briefly skim it while I'm sitting here watching How the Grinch Stole Christmas and trying to get some work done...lol

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Good tip in the threads... look at the Harry read me txt in documents.....
This is some poor programmer trying to make sense of the data.

I think the mails have provided a quick high but the real fireworks are going to come from the documents and the computer code.
Oh, and the next tranche of stuff downloaded if and when it happens.

But people, as caring human beings, spare a thought for the warmists who are going ape trying to shoot down deniers and hold up the researchers.

"Just typical private email language you'd find anywhere" they claim but other scientists, not in their cosy group, seem not to agree.
Here's a link to a thread discussing harry_read_me.txt :
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2421

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

2
Come on true belivers and stand by your religion.

Actually it is those who don't believe, and question the numbers who are more correct. There isen't anything shown so far that is convencing either way.

It is true the climate is changing, but no real proof that it is human caused, or can be affected significently by humans.

However, it is interesting how the facts are playing out agenst those with an agenda.

It is also saddening how those agendas are being played out agenst the people as taxes, and reduced freedom.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Cranky, that's one of the things that truly worries me, taxes and undue economic burden on the back of the consumers.  If Cap and Trade ever goes into effect, we will see such an economic impact that it could be devastating.  Not only to businesses but the consumers because we will be paying for businesses to either switch over to less co2 emitting processes or paying the companies to buy more carbon credits for what?  To try and stop something that we, as humans, have no influence over?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I'd definitely put my money on this being an internal leak rather than an external hack. My best guess is that someone inside got disgusted at the stonewalling of Freedom of Information requests and decided to play whistleblower.

I've wondered for years what the e-mails of these guys would show, and suspected they thought the way these e-mails show, but I never really thought there would be an expose like this. (And still, after several days, no claims that I have seen that any of these are false -- just that some were "taken out of context".)

But I'm with jmw on this one that the real revelations will be in the code and data. Those of you with a geekish bent may want to wander over to www.chiefio.com where E.M. Smith, a very experienced programmer, has been deconstructing the code and data from the temperature record from the comparable American group, NASA GISS. This stuff was only released recently and under great pressure from the same people who were after CRU.

Smith's postings are not easy to follow (he doesn't seem to believe in graphical presentation of the data), but it is worth it to see how precarious the whole case is, and just how bad the quality of work that everything rests on turns out to be.

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Well, it is not surprising that a group of like minded people ( climate scientists in this instance) behaves like most other groups of people had over history- their behavior has more religious and political overtones than scientific  overtones. Perhaps there is a social psychological explanation- it was seen before with scientists  ( in the 1950's) with the carl sagan vs emmanual vielokovsky controversy.


Well, this too shall pass.
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

My link above should have been:

www.chiefio.wordpress.com

Apologies to all.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Does this say what I think it says?


Email:839635440.txt
"From: John Daly
To: n.nicholls@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: Climatic warming in Tasmania
Date: Fri, 09 Aug 1996 20:04:00 +1100
Cc: Ed Cook , NNU-NB@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Mike Barbetti , zetterberg@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rjf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Dear Neville,

You mentioned to me some time ago that in your view, the 11-year solar cycle did not influence temperature. There have been numerous attempts by academics to establish a correlation, but each has been shot down on some ground or other. I remember Barrie Pittock was especially dismissive of attempts to correlate solar cycle with temperature.

Have you tried this approach?

Load "Mathematica" into your PC and run the following set of instructions -

data = ReadList[ "c:sydney.txt", Number]
dataElements = Length[data]
X = ListPlot[ data, PlotJoined-> True];
fourierTrans = Fourier[data];
ListPlot[Abs[fourierTrans], PlotJoined -> True];

fitfun1 = Fit[data,{1,x,x^2,x^3,Sin[11 2 Pi x/dataElements],
Cos[11 2 Pi x/dataElements]},x];
fittable = Table[N[fitfun1], {x, dataElements}];
Y = ListPlot[fittable, PlotJoined -> True];
Show[X, Y]

The reference to "c:sydney.txt" is a suggested pathname for the following set of data – which is Sydney's annual mean temperature.

16.8 16.5 16.8 17 17 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 17.4 17.2 17.1 16.9 17 17.2 17.2 17.4
17.6 17.6 17.6 16.7 17.1 16.8 17.4 16.8 17.3 17.8 17.5 17.1 17.2 17.6 17.3 17.1
16.9 16.9 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.2 16.9 17.5 17.4
17.2 17 17.5 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.3 17.8 17.4 17.2 17.4 18.3 17.3 18 18.1 18 17.5
17.3 18 17 18.2 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.1 17.4 17.3 17.5 17.7 18 17.8 18 17.4
17.8 16.8 17.5 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.2 17.4 17.9 17.9 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.8
18.3 18 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.1 17.9 17.5 17.8 18.3 18 17.7 17.3 17.5 18.5 17.4
17.8 17.7 17.8 17.7 18 18.5 18.2 17.8 18.1 17.5 17.8 17.8 18 18.6 18.1 18.1
18.6

So Far so good.

"Mathematica" first plots out the data itself (see Atachment 1)

The first part of the instruction set lets "mathematica" do a Fourier Transform on the data, ie. searching out the periodicities, if there are any. The result is shown on Attachment 2.

The transform result shows a sharp spike at the 11 year point (I wonder what is significant about 11 years?). The second part of the instructions now acts upon this observed spike (the Cos 11 bit), to extract it's waveform from the rest of the noise. The result is shown as a waveform in attachment 3, the waves having an 11-year period, with the long-term Sydney warming easily evident.

Attachment 4 shows the original Sydney data overlaid against the 11-year periodicity.

It would appear that the solar cycle does indeed affect temperature.

(I tried the same run on the CRU global temperature set. Even though CRU must be highly smoothed by the time all the averages are worked out, the 11-year pulse is still there, albeit about half the size of Sydneys).

Stay cool.

John Daly

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I wonder why the climatologists did not smooth down the 1998 temperature. I suppose it was too good to be true when it appeared. The best approach would be to smooth it down now, and get the best of both worlds.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

if you smooth everything flat, you've got nothing to talk about, nothing to frighten the masses with, nothing to use as leverage to extract your fortune from others, ...

something else i notice in the media ... surprise, surprise, on the eve of a climate meeting (= boondoddle) there's a report that things are getting worse (CO2 increasing, climate destablising, the end of the world as we know it, ...)

these guys will never quit.  they're in a win-win ... if things "improve" (not sure how to measure that ...) then "see, i told you so ..."; if things get "worse" then "i told you so, you wouldn't let me do enough when we had time ...".

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Maybe it's time some universitys clean house. Throw the bums out.

Or maybe we should make a big deal of the universits that don't.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/24/cei-files-notice-of-intent-to-sue-nasa-giss/

CEI Files Notice of Intent to Sue NASA GISS

Today, on behalf of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, I filed three Notices of Intent to File Suit against NASA and its Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), for those bodies' refusal – for nearly three years – to provide documents requested under the Freedom of Information Act.

The information sought is directly relevant to the exploding "ClimateGate" scandal revealing document destruction, coordinated efforts in the U.S. and UK to avoid complying with both countries' freedom of information laws, and apparent and widespread intent to defraud at the highest levels of international climate science bodies. Numerous informed commenters had alleged such behavior for years, all of which appears to be affirmed by leaked emails, computer codes and other data from the Climatic Research Unit of the UK's East Anglia University.

All of that material and that sought for years by CEI go to the heart of the scientific claims and campaign underpinning the Kyoto Protocol, its planned successor treaty, "cap-and-trade" legislation and the EPA's threatened regulatory campaign to impose similar measures through the back door.

CEI sought the following documents, among others, NASA's failure to provide which within thirty days will prompt CEI to file suit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia:

- internal discussions about NASA's quiet correction of its false historical U.S. temperature records after two Canadian researchers discovered a key statistical error, specifically discussion about whether and why to correct certain records, how to do so, the impact or wisdom or potential (or real) fallout therefrom or reaction to doing so (requested August 2007);

- internal discussions relating to the emails sent to James Hansen and/or Reto A. Ruedy from Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre calling their attention to the errors in NASA/GISS online temperature data (August 2007);

- those relating to the content, importance or propriety of workday-hour posts or entries by GISS/NASA employee Gavin A. Schmidt on the weblog or "blog" RealClimate, which is owned by the advocacy Environmental Media Services and was started as an effort to defend the debunked "Hockey Stick" that is so central to the CRU files. RealClimate.org is implicated in the leaked files, expressly offered as a tool to be used "in any way you think would be helpful" to a certain advocacy campaign, including an assertion of Schmidt's active involvement in, e.g., delaying and/or screening out unhelpful input by "skeptics" attempting to comment on claims made on the website.

This and the related political activism engaged in are inappropriate behavior for a taxpayer-funded employee, particularly on taxpayer time. These documents were requested in January 2007 and NASA/GISS have refused to date to comply with their legal obligation to produce responsive documents.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Some possible good news from Congress

Congress May Probe Leaked Global Warming E-Mails

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/24/taking_liberties/entry5761180.shtml

A few days after leaked e-mail messages appeared on the Internet, the U.S. Congress may probe whether prominent scientists who are advocates of global warming theories misrepresented the truth about climate change.

Sen. James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican, said on Monday the leaked correspondence suggested researchers "cooked the science to make this thing look as if the science was settled, when all the time of course we knew it was not," according to a transcript of a radio interview posted on his Web site. Aides for Rep. Darrell Issa, a California Republican, are also looking into the disclosure.

The leaked documents (see our previous coverage) come from the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in eastern England. In global warming circles, the CRU wields outsize influence: it claims the world's largest temperature data set, and its work and mathematical models were incorporated into the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 report. That report, in turn, is what the Environmental Protection Agency acknowledged it "relies on most heavily" when concluding that carbon dioxide emissions endanger public health and should be regulated.

Last week's leaked e-mails range from innocuous to embarrassing and, critics believe, scandalous. They show that some of the field's most prominent scientists were so wedded to theories of man-made global warming that they ridiculed dissenters who asked for copies of their data ("have to respond to more crap criticisms from the idiots"), cheered the deaths of skeptical journalists, and plotted how to keep researchers who reached different conclusions from publishing in peer-reviewed journals.

One e-mail message, apparently from CRU director Phil Jones, references the U.K.'s Freedom of Information Act when asking another researcher to delete correspondence that might be disclosed in response to public records law: "Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise." Another, also apparently from Jones: global warming skeptics "have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I'll delete the file rather than send to anyone." (Jones was a contributing author to the chapter of the U.N.'s IPCC report titled "Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes.")

In addition to e-mail messages, the roughly 3,600 leaked documents posted on sites including Wikileaks.org and EastAngliaEmails.com include computer code and a description of how an unfortunate programmer named "Harry" -- possibly the CRU's Ian "Harry" Harris -- was tasked with resuscitating and updating a key temperature database that proved to be problematic. Some excerpts from what appear to be his notes, emphasis added:

    I am seriously worried that our flagship gridded data product is produced by Delaunay triangulation - apparently linear as well. As far as I can see, this renders the station counts totally meaningless. It also means that we cannot say exactly how the gridded data is arrived at from a statistical perspective - since we're using an off-the-shelf product that isn't documented sufficiently to say that. Why this wasn't coded up in Fortran I don't know - time pressures perhaps? Was too much effort expended on homogenisation, that there wasn't enough time to write a gridding procedure? Of course, it's too late for me to fix it too. Meh.

    I am very sorry to report that the rest of the databases seem to be in nearly as poor a state as Australia was. There are hundreds if not thousands of pairs of dummy stations, one with no WMO and one with, usually overlapping and with the same station name and very similar coordinates. I know it could be old and new stations, but why such large overlaps if that's the case? Aarrggghhh! There truly is no end in sight... So, we can have a proper result, but only by including a load of garbage!

    One thing that's unsettling is that many of the assigned WMo codes for Canadian stations do not return any hits with a web search. Usually the country's met office, or at least the Weather Underground, show up – but for these stations, nothing at all. Makes me wonder if these are long-discontinued, or were even invented somewhere other than Canada!

    Knowing how long it takes to debug this suite - the experiment endeth here. The option (like all the anomdtb options) is totally undocumented so we'll never know what we lost. 22. Right, time to stop pussyfooting around the niceties of Tim's labyrinthine software suites - let's have a go at producing CRU TS 3.0! since failing to do that will be the definitive failure of the entire project.

    Ulp! I am seriously close to giving up, again. The history of this is so complex that I can't get far enough into it before by head hurts and I have to stop. Each parameter has a tortuous history of manual and semi-automated interventions that I simply cannot just go back to early versions and run the update prog. I could be throwing away all kinds of corrections - to lat/lons, to WMOs (yes!), and more. So what the hell can I do about all these duplicate stations?...


As the leaked messages, and especially the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file, found their way around technical circles, two things happened: first, programmers unaffiliated with East Anglia started taking a close look at the quality of the CRU's code, and second, they began to feel sympathetic for anyone who had to spend three years (including working weekends) trying to make sense of code that appeared to be undocumented and buggy, while representing the core of CRU's climate model.

One programmer highlighted the error of relying on computer code that, if it generates an error message, continues as if nothing untoward ever occurred. Another debugged the code by pointing out why the output of a calculation that should always generate a positive number was incorrectly generating a negative one. A third concluded: "I feel for this guy. He's obviously spent years trying to get data from undocumented and completely messy sources."

Programmer-written comments inserted into CRU's Fortran code have drawn fire as well. The file briffa_sep98_d.pro says: "Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!" and "APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION." Another, quantify_tsdcal.pro, says: "Low pass filtering at century and longer time scales never gets rid of the trend - so eventually I start to scale down the 120-yr low pass time series to mimic the effect of removing/adding longer time scales!"

It's not clear how the files were leaked. One theory says that a malicious hacker slipped into East Anglia's network and snatched thousands of documents. Another says that the files had already been assembled in response to a Freedom of Information request and, immediately after it was denied, a whistleblower decided to disclose them. (Lending credence to that theory is the fact that no personal e-mail messages unrelated to climate change appear to have been leaked.)

For its part, the University of East Anglia has posted a statement calling the disclosure "mischievous" and saying it is aiding the police in an investigation.

The statement also quotes Jones, CRU's director, explaining his November 1999 e-mail, which said: "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline." Jones said that the word trick was used "colloquially as in a clever thing to do" and that it "is ludicrous to suggest that it refers to anything untoward."

Also unclear is the ultimate impact of the leak, which came before next month's Copenhagen summit and Democratic plans for cap and trade legislation.

On one hand, over at RealClimate.org, Gavin Schmidt, a modeler for the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been downplaying the leak. Schmidt wrote: "There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research ... no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no 'marching orders' from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords."

On the other, groups like the free-market Competitive Enterprise Institute, the target of repeated derision in the leaked e-mails, have said: "We have argued for many years that much of the scientific case for global warming alarmism was weak and some of it was phony. It now looks like a lot of it may be phony."

ScienceMag.org published an article noting that deleting e-mail messages to hide them from a FOI request is a crime in the United Kingdom. George Monbiot, a U.K. activist and journalist who previously called for dramatic action to deal with global warming, wrote: "It's no use pretending that this isn't a major blow. The emails extracted by a hacker from the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia could scarcely be more damaging."

Complicating matters for congressional Republicans who'd like to hold hearings is that East Anglia, of course, is a U.K. university. The GOP may intend to press the Obama administration for details on how the EPA came to rely on the CRU's predictions, and whether the recent disclosure will change the agency's position. Another approach lies in e-mail messages discussing grants from the U.S. Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to East Anglia; one says: "We need to show some left to cover the costs of the trip Roger didn't make and also the fees/equipment/computer money we haven't spent otherwise NOAA will be suspicious."

The irony of this situation is that most of us expect science to be conducted in the open, without unpublished secret data, hidden agendas, and computer programs of dubious reliability. East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit might have avoided this snafu by publicly disclosing as much as possible at every step of the way.  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

what a catfight!

Q: How many scientists does it take to determine if it is getting hotter outside?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
The two options are:
a) an external hacker. This means that any subsequent releases (apparently only about half the amount hacked has so far been released) will not through up anything much more or less dramatic; i.e. this is representative of what the second half will contain.
b) an inside job, a leak. This may mean that whoever did it is much more familiar with the material and may have graded it so as to create an ever increasing drama as new material is released. In this case we might assume the bulk is neutral, with some moderate scandals exposed and we have that now. What is next released in the run up to Copenhagen will be increasingly scandalous even though ech new release may contain less material.

Me? I suspect and hope it is the latter.  

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Option C

C. After the FOI request was declined, an insider leaked the info to shed light on the on-goings at CRU.  The info was gathered prior to the FOI request decision in case they had to release info.  This could be info that they didn't want to share or it was info that they were willing to share.  Either way it would have been stored in a central location and just a copy and paste to a thumb-drive.  I find it hard to believe that this was stuff that they wanted to let get out.

This is all speculation of course but it does sound more plausible than anything else.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"On one hand, over at RealClimate.org, Gavin Schmidt, a modeler for the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been downplaying the leak. Schmidt wrote: "There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research ... no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no 'marching orders' from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords." "

Straw man argument. What there is evidence of is deliberate suppression of data and distortion of analysis. Gavin needs to explain that away.

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

The "Copenhagen Diagnosis" was released today. Download it from http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf
Interesting bits include - page 45/46, the hockey stick is back. Also page 51 says "Many indicators are currently tracking near or above the worst case projections from the
IPCC AR4 set of model simulations." No mention that one of the many indicators isn't temperature. I was rather hoping for an update to IPCC AR4 Fig. TS26 Update,(see attachment Slide 45) but it does not support the IPCC case at all well.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Or perhaps not.

Quote:

Dr Jim Salinger (who no longer works for NIWA) started this graph in the 1980s when he was
at CRU (Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK) and it has been updated
with the most recent data. It's published on NIWA's website at:
(http://www.climatescience.org.nz/images/PDFs/global_warming_nz2.pdf)

All roads appear to lead to the University of East Anglia.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
In the case of Dr Jim Salinger, he was fired for talking to the media. (Something our NASA hockey stick bloke can get away with).
Some nice comments here:
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/face-niwa-sacked-being-too-public-2673255
Especially:

Quote:

"It's not as though I'm doing bad science, it's not as though I'm not performing and so I'm really astounded".
and of course:
{quote]His work now is to make room for over 30 years of scientific papers - the quality of which is not in question.[/quote]
Well, it is now.
As a consequence: will he have to repay the nobel prize share? will he lose his pension? will he go to jail as was called for for climate change deniers? will he have to hand back any awards?

Who will step up and defend the official temperature record for New Zealand?
I'd suggest the CRU should lose its status as custodian of global temperature data (they shouldn't just "lose" raw data not should they manipulate it. In fact, the only responsibility they should have had was custodianship and analysis. The whole game of global warming should have been confined to clients for their data. In other words the custodianship of climate data and support or advocacy of a particular therory are a conflict of interest.

 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Appearances can be deceiving.  Most people would never look at the graph long enough to gather that there is a scale difference between the graphs.  

It's a shame that this info from East Anglia wasn't released about 6 months ago.  It's too close to Copenhagen to cause any changes in discussion and possible signing of the treaty.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Climate Change is a religion:  No proof of God, No proof of Climate Change.

But yet there is blind faith.


From "The McLaughlin Group"
Buchannan, "It's not been warming since '98. Secondly, there's no known proof it's because of man and there's no known proof it's a great danger."

However, Clift felt inclined to responded, rather emphatically. She said she believes U.S. policy should be proactive toward the issue. Her view is arguably indicative of the mainstream media's sentiment on the debate, and she equated it to blind faith when she told Buchanan there's no proof there's a God either, which didn't mean global warming wasn't a danger.

"It's no known proof there's God, either. How much proof do you need, Pat?" Clift replied.

______________________________________________________________________________
This is normally the space where people post something insightful.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

With that logic, you should be proactive and go to church, just in case there is a god.
Or we should build space weapons, just in case there are little green men who want to eat us.

Blind faith in anything, emotional, or otherwise, can be a ruin of any society, people, or civilazation. But don't get me wrong, some religons have shaped our civilazation in a very positive way (It works both ways).

The key, from my perspective, is who is setting the agenda, and the goal? Is it population control, or money?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

We have a new Opposition Leader in Australia, the change brought on by a public groundswell against an Emissions Trading Scheme.  Tony Abbott has the reputation of being a tough guy, and apparently has more common sense than the others.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Alternatively, you can view CO2 reduction as an insurance policy, not a foreign concept to most of us.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

How so?  You assume that CO2 has a link to the warmth of the globe.  What happens when it proves to be false and there is no link between CO2 and GW but in fact it is Sol that is causing it.  Then you have done nothing but spun your wheels and created policies that do nothing to help and only hurt the economies of developing/delevoped nations.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

good point ap6 ... how much do you pay for insurance ?  actually, it'd be interesting to see what the bookies are offering in Los Vegas for climate predictions.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

2
OK, I admit it.  I made it all up, and got a couple thousand greedy self-serving climate scientists to agree with me.  I figured it would look good on my resume.

It's all a scam.  Get back in your SUVs, go back to your monster homes, crank up the thermostat, turn on the plasma TV and forget about the whole thing.  Don't worry- the planet's big enough to deal with whatever we puny humans can throw at it.

Get real, folks!

Until you can credibly dispute that we humans have doubled the CO2 content of the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution, I'll remain really concerned about what the consequences of that might be.  As I've said repeatedly here, I doubt we'll ever know for sure- the earth is an unbelievably complex system.  I'll still think it's best that we do whatever we can to reduce how quickly we collectively p*ss through our finite stocks of fossil fuels. If we're serious about this, there needs to be a significant tipping charge on atmospheric emissions to provide the market feedback to fund the change.  Otherwise, platitudes about conservation are just more hot air.  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Hi Moltenmetal: I think we are almost on the same side. I would like to see us do the things that make sense whether or not there is anthropogenic global warming, and also make sense if we are running out of cheap energy. Check out Searching_for_a_Miracle_web10nov09.pdf
Diagram 2 page 28 for a good overview of the energy situation.
The link is at
http://www.postcarbon.org/new-site-files/Reports/Searching_for_a_Miracle_web

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Molten, don't get me wrong, I do think that we need to limit what we put in the atmosphere (air, water and land) but I don't think it needs to be a drastic taxation that Cap and Trade will impose on developed nations.  

Nor do I believe that CO2 and warming are linked.  There are so many holes in the AGW theory (I call it a theory because it's nowhere close to being proven) from CO2 trailing warming, claims by warmist that tree ring data is only usable until 1960, ice core data, CRU scientists even admitted that there was a link to solar activity and warming and not to mention everything that has been leaked from emails to Fortran code that shows how sloppy they were with the data.  There's just too many holes in their theory to make any scientific estimation.


I'll come back and add links to back up my points after my meeting in a few.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

cap-and-trade is just a backdoor means of eliminating progressivity in the tax system.  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

2

Quote (moltenmetal):

I'll still think it's best that we do whatever we can to reduce how quickly we collectively p*ss through our finite stocks of fossil fuels. If we're serious about this, there needs to be a significant tipping charge on atmospheric emissions to provide the market feedback to fund the change.
Those two sentences are a perfect example of the misdirection that has so many so many skeptical of the AGW "science".  The first sentence is all about the very legitimate and valid cause for conservation.  But the second sentence then uses that setup to the non-sequitur conclusion to require taxing pollution.  The underlying presumption that taxing pollution will lead to conservation doesn't make sense.  Taxing pollution will most likely lead to a reduction in pollution, which is more likely to actually increase consumption, not decrease it.

If you want to address consumption, and I agree that it needs addressing, then address consumption.
If you want to address pollution, and I agree that it too needs addressing, then address pollution.

But these are two separate issues.  To suggest that taxing pollution is a means towards conservation is a disservice to both issues.

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Porf Lintzen here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400.html
Read what he has to say about CO2 and climate change.
He has written this so even the uneducated man on the street can understand.
One article says we would have to burn all our Fossil
There is also a good article from German scientists about the false greenhouse effect saga: here http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0707/0707.1161v4.pdf
 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

CajunCenturion:  if you take "carbon sequestration" off the table, CO2 emission reductions EQUAL fossil fuel conservation.  Given the finite nature of fossil fuels, and our agreement that CO2 sequestration will cause us to p*ss through these finite reserves FASTER, conservation and energy efficiency are the only options worth considering.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

given the push for clean coal that is at the moment the most pallatable option politically that's capable of filling the grids needs. I'd say it's a big ask to take carbon sequestration off the table.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

IMHO carbon sequestration is the core of the debate ... 1/2 of us think it's a complete waste of time and money, the other 1/2 believe it's the only thing that's going to save us.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

A star to you OWG for that fabulous link!

An interesting quote from the forward to that article,

"Global institutions, national governments, and even many environmental and social activists are barking up the wrong trees.  Individually and as groups, they have not faced the full gravity and meaning of the global energy (and resource) conundrums.  They continue to operate in most ways out of the same set of assumptions that we've all had for the past century- that fundamental systemic changes will not be required; that our complex of problems can be cured by human innovation, ingenuity, and technical efficiency, together with a few smart changes in our choices of energy systems.

Most of all, the prevailing institutions continue to believe in the primacy and efficacy of economic growth as the key indicator of systemic well-being, even in light of ever-diminishing resources.  It will not be necessary, according to this dogma, to come to grips with the reality that ever-expanding economic growth is actually an absurdity in a finite system, preposterous on its face, and will soon be over even if activists do nothing to oppose it."

Note that what the author here is talking about isn't "peak oil" per se- he's talking about humanity running into one or more limits of the finite earth we depend on.  We don't know which, or which combination of limits we'll run into first:  it could be either the fossil fuels themselves, or the planetary carrying capacity of the planet for the effluent of combustion of all those fossil fuels, or it could be something else.  I'm betting on the carrying capacity being the limit long before we run out of the fuels themselves.  But the pyramid scam called "economic growth" will take us to one limit or another- that is certain.  And like all economic problems, it will require an economic rather than a technological solution.
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Lets face it, a carbon tax will only lead to black market, cheating, and goverment greed. Which is why goverment officials want it so badley. They smell money in there pockets.

It's just another tax and control scheme, that will hobble most industrilized nations, and allowing emerging nations to emit as much carbon as they wish. It will result in shifting manufacturing to nontaxed nations resulting in no net reductions.

If the greenies were really concerned about global warming they would be pushing nucular energy. But insted we have simpletons who for money will march for any cause.

It's easy to see that the leaders don't have a clue how much energy a nation requires, and the magnitude differences between what they believe will work, and what is really required (check the air in your tires).

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

" if you take "carbon sequestration" off the table, CO2 emission reductions EQUAL fossil fuel conservation."

No, it doesn't. CO2 emissions reductions will increase the burning of natural gas in static installations displacing coal.

Coal is an inconvenient fuel for mobile applications, while CNG and LNG are both perfectly practical fuels for mobile applications, in both IC and GT engines. It is not done on a wide scale yet because liquid hydrocarbons are easier to handle, but there is no serious problem to be overcome.

As such CO2 emissions reductions will directly force the use of a valuable fuel (NG) in place of one which is less intrinsically useful, and far more plentiful.

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

==> if you take "carbon sequestration" off the table
Why would you take anything off the table?
Are you also taking this off the table?
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/11/29/clean.coal.technology/

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

CajunCenturion - Your referenced clean coal report includes the intriguing phrase "the remaining carbon monoxide can be safely burned underground". Sounds like our old friend "sequestering" to me. I think we need a better reference to able to figure this one out.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

This is just the tip of the iceberg if Cap and Trade ever passes

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/01/new-from-copenhagen-denmark-rife-with-co2-fraud/

Quote:

News from Copenhagen: Denmark rife with CO2 fraud

Scams in many countries are subject to investigation by authorities

Authorities in several countries investigate VAT tax fraud stemming from the Danish CO2 quota register

Denmark is the centre of a comprehensive tax scam involving CO2 quotas, in which the cheats exploit a so-called 'VAT carrousel', reports Ekstra Bladet newspaper.

Police and authorities in several European countries are investigating scams worth billions of kroner, which all originate in the Danish quota register. The CO2 quotas are traded in other EU countries.

Denmark's quota register, which the Energy Agency within the Climate and Energy Ministry administers, is the largest in the world in terms of personal quota registrations. It is much easier to register here than in other countries, where it can take up to three months to be approved.

Ekstra Bladet reporters have found examples of people using false addresses and companies that are in liquidation, which haven't been removed from the register.

One of the cases, which stems from the Danish register, involves fraud of more than 8 billion kroner. This case, in which nine people have been arrested, is being investigated in England.

The market for CO2 trade has exploded in recent years and is worth an estimated 675 billion kroner globally.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

My own take on the global warming issue:

a) not all technical measures used to address CO2 reduction also preserve or conserve fossil resources- for example , removing CO2 from the exhaust of coal plants for sequestation implies an enormous penalty in net cycle efficiency  which  would accelerate the depletion of coal reserves. IGCC with CO2 scrubbing is another technical fix that incurs a huge efficiency penalty ( associated with the air separation plant). So, the 2 objectives are sometimes in  opposition.

b)while I am not a psychologist or familiar with games theory, I suspect those that are familiar with strategies for steering society may  have come to the conclusion that it is easier to reduce the rate of fossil consumption by misdirection and use the religion of global warming as a rationale ; if outright concern on finite fossil resources is publically voiced, then there would be a frantic race to obtain property rights to remaining reserves ( aka war).

c) the instant cooling we are now experiencing may be due to a new 11 yr solar cycle, or it may be due to the large increase in submicron emission of particulates from the large increase in coal fired capacity of china from that last 5 yrs ( Mie scattering, complex index of refraction, etc) .

d) over the millenium of human existence , peoples have traditionally responded by simply moving to a better area , if their current place of abode is no longer hospitable.( Duhhhhh !) If it comes to pass that a risign ocen level displaces 100 million people, one possible outcome might be relocation to ( Siberia !!!)- as wild as it sounds, if Russia ( ot other nation with huge uninhabited expanses) were to admit such a huge influx of persons, their economic strength would likely realize a step increase within 1 generation.
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

A carbon tax is a lot cleaner than a cap and trade system.  Far less likely to be evaded or defrauded.  And far more likely to affect EVERY user of fossil fuels, rather than just the major ones.  That makes it far more likely to work- and far LESS likely to be politically possible.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

While the emissions problem is a direct result of consumption, it's not necessarily true that the only solution to the emissions problem is to reduce consumption.  To that end, nothing should be taken off the table.  When someone suggest that something be taken off the table, it smacks of running contrary to that one's agenda.  All avenues should be explored.  There may be several ways of dealing with CO2 emissions.  Granted, the referenced article talks of a technology that is in its infancy and may turn out to be non-productive, but it is investigating a technique of recycling CO2 and should be pursued.

The second point is that I completely agree that conservation is a must.  Fossil fuels are a finite resource and they will run out if not properly managed.  However, as soon as one ties AGW as a reason to conserve, one loses the point behind the conservation.  It comes off as a manufactured reason to conserve and that will never sell.  

Conservation needs to be promoted for the sake of conservation.  I do not believe that can ever be done successfully via taxation.  Rather than taxing those who do consume, we need to find a way to reward those who do not consume.  There are four reasons against taxation.  First off, punishing a behavior (taxing consumption) is not the most effective way of changing that behavior.  Secondly, there are too many layers of consumption to effectively target the right consumers, and thirdly, the biggest end user consumers are the ones most able to pay the tax, thus reducing the desired behavior modification.  Finally, the whole notion of taxation is one of government sticking their hands in our pockets and not one as a means to manage consumption.

I think we should try to find a way to reward those who do not consume.  Rather than tax consumption, we should find a way to reward conservation.  Maybe we can find ways to offer tax deductions and/or credits for those who do conserve rather than tax those who consume.

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Either way (Taxes or Cap-n-Trade) will place the burden on the backs of the consumers and push us further into another recession or an inflation of currency.  How many people could afford to pay another 5-10% of their wages in taxes?  It won't cut our consumption.  It may make us find smarter ways to get around paying the taxes though.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Quote:

I think we should try to find a way to reward those who do not consume.  Rather than tax consumption, we should find a way to reward conservation.  Maybe we can find ways to offer tax deductions and/or credits for those who do conserve rather than tax those who consume.

The US IRS already gives tax breaks to those that purchase hybrids and fuel economic cars.  Maybe those need to be increased some.  Cajun does bring up a good point that we shouldn't be punishing behavior, rather use positive reinforcement to get the message through that conservation is what is needed and not use scare tactics that only backfire.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Cajun:  the money to promote the behavior you want has to come from somewhere.  Only a segregated carbon tax will provide the carrot AND the stick, both of which are needed to motivate people who are not moved by their own virtue.

What fundamentally I want is for all this subsidy and lifecycle analysis crap to go away.   It's too easy for businesses, governments and lobby groups to manipulate, hype and mis-purpose.   It muddies the waters too much, making it tough for even well-intentioned people to make intelligent decisions about conservation.

Tax carbon and put 100% of the tax revenue into CAPITAL subsidies to help people and businesses reduce how much fossil fuel they use.  Now all of a sudden people can do simple economic analysis to determine if their choices make sense from a greenhouse gas or fossil fuel extinction perspective.  You no longer need people to be virtuous to have a hope of them doing what's right.

Take the example of the "embodied energy" argument made against certain building materials.  Tax carbon and all of a sudden, materials with high embodied fossil fuel energy will cost more than those that don't.  People who don't give a sh*t one way or another about fossil fuels will STILL be inclined to do the right thing.  Not in every case, but in a normative, overall sense.  Right now, you have people arguing against installing foam insulation because of its embodied energy, even though the savings in heating fuel will dwarf this embodied energy in a year or two.  It's NUTS.

Another example is the "100 mile diet" or "eat local" movements:  since production of food takes far more energy than transportation, people who buy local food might actually be doing more environmental harm than those who buy food from wherever it's cheapest.  But if you tax carbon appropriately, the price alone will tell you most of what you need to know.

Then there's corn ethanol, cellulosic, ethanol, biodiesel, fast pyro oil, biomass co-burning, windfarms, wave and tidal generators, rooftop solar etc. etc. etc.  How the !@#($)* is anybody or any government supposed to know which of these to bet on?  No problem.  Tax carbon, kill the subsidies, and let the economy sort 'em out.

Tax carbon and give no credit for sequestration, and you get effective conservation.   The users who have made the investments to reduce energy consumption get the benefits forever- the tax just helps them get there.  Will that destroy the economy?  I sincerely doubt it.  YES it will make some products and services more expensive, and require som adjustment and lifestyle changes, but it will also reduce the amount of treasure sent abroad to those who won the geological lottery- and it will reduce every one of those other very real and non-controversial harms associated with exploring for, extracting, transporting, refining and combusting fossil fuels.  That's worth something too, isn't it?!

Remember that economic growth, particularly GDP growth, is a poor measure of what's actually good for a society.  A major disaster destroys wealth and kills and harms people, but it also causes local GDP to increase by forcing people to spend money to rebuild.

Of course this will never, ever happen.  Politicians will continue to hope for the deus ex machina "technological fix" to the whole thing, and there will be plenty of snake-oil salesmen who claim to have it in a bottle.  
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

==> What fundamentally I want is for all this subsidy and lifecycle analysis crap to go away
The US does not subsidize fuel consumption.  The US, both at federal and state levels, does tax fuel consumption; however, I grant that they don't tax it at the unreasonably high levels that other countries charge.  But don't confuse lower tax levels with subsidies.  They are two entirely different things.

==> Only a segregated carbon tax
I disagree.  Yes, credit monies need to come from somewhere, but forcing it to come from a segregated carbon tax is an unnecessary and unreasonable limitation.  You could just as easily (relative term to be sure) add one or two percentage points to highest income tax level and use those monies.  Actually, that's probably more effective because you're still generating the revenue but not taking from the people who still need to heat their houses, but not require them to pay a tax on that heating oil.

Your positions statements always seem to be tax, tax, tax.

==> Of course this will never, ever happen.
Then WHY do you continue to propose it and push for it?  Why not start thinking about solutions that are not simply tax, tax, tax.
 

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Hey, here's an idea.  Maybe the credit monies could come from a reduction in government spending.  Maybe if Obama got rid of say, 25 of his 30 something czars and used their salary and staff payroll monies for providing conservation credits, ...
Probably won't happen either.  Let's just raise taxes on the citizens.
 

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Kenat:  you deal with that via tarrifs.  Or not.  The most affected industries are already moving en masse, and there's no reason to expect any different regardless.

For clarification, the wretched subsidies I'm talking about are the various subsidies on renewable electricity generated by photovoltaics, or on the generation of corn ethanol, or any number of other dumb-assed government interventions in the marketplace that we have at present.  And yes, there ARE subsidies, or holidays from royalties or tax breaks or other incentives, which are doled out to the fossil fuel companies at present- these are NOT zero.  ALL these subsidies are counterproductive at best.  ANY energy consumption which is not NECESSARY has SOME environmental cost- a cost which is currently assigned ZERO value.  

Tax the evil- the fossil fuels themselves- in proportion to their filthiness which happens to match their carbon content in lock-step- and stop subsidizing the alternatives.  Do that and you stop fighting the market and have it start working FOR you.  This is an economic problem, not a technical one.

Cajun:  I push for it because it's the right thing to do.  This isn't a tax on citizens like a head tax, or a tax on something otherwise desirable like an income tax.  It's a tax on consumption.  Consume more?  Pay more tax.  How could you be against that?  You can dole out the subsidy money for the energy efficiency retrofits preferentially on an inverse of ability-to-pay basis if you want to make the tax "progressive".

But I'm cynical enough to realize that if you can't even convince a room full of ENGINEERS that there's a problem here worth tackling vigorously with more than mere platitudes about how virtuous it is to conserve, the chance of convincing a sufficient mass of both the great unwashed public AND the politicians who govern them is ZERO, or so close to zero that it's indistinguishable from zero.  Doesn't make it any less right, though.  You can't be a true cynic unless you still have a tiny kernel of hope left in you, and I'm no different.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I believe the preferred term is "Ograbme".

See how he nick 'em!

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

pink floyd said it best .. "riding the gravy train"

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"Conservation needs to be promoted for the sake of conservation.  I do not believe that can ever be done successfully via taxation. "

So why does the Eurpoean private vehicle fleet average (say) 30 mpg, and the US one say 20 mpg? You don't think higher fuel taxes might have something to do with it?

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Are you calling production tax credits subsidies? Actually this is an incitive to produce oil, or gas, simular to a r & d tax credit. This is an incitive to produce here, vs producing in say Iran.

Is there anyone really saying you prefer your oil or gas to be produced somewhere other than where you live? Do you really feel that we need to create jobs over there?

I'll be happy to trim down my energy usage, but I need for these talking heads to show me how (not tell me).

(check the air in your tires)
(replace your light bulbs, with toxic replacments)
(drive cars that are sure to get stuck in the snow)

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

We have a few of those efficient light bulbs. For most of the year in Ontario they just give off less heat from hydro which is replaced in the home by natural gas. Duh!

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

cranky,  you'll breathe far more mercury from coal-fired power plant emissions in your lifetime than you'll ever get from compact fluorescent lightbulbs.  And I live in Canada AND drive a Prius- and that car has never been stuck in the snow.

No, you don't need the "talking heads" to show you rather than telling you.  You, and I, and all of us, need a REASON to do things better, or we WON'T.  Right now, the payback period on doing the right thing is NEVER.  That needs to change.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Maybe you don't see the fact that the one size fits all solutions don't always work. Sort of like the one size fits all clothes.

As owg points out above, the lower carbon solution for his case is electric resistance heat, and convential light bulbs.

There are parts of the US where the snow plow dosen't come by very often. And yes we use coal mined from the US. It has a lower transportion cost than oil, and we aren't giving our monies to people who hate us.

Yes we could use natural gas, however with little incentive to drill, the price is higher than coal. And hydroelectric dosen't produce much without large dams. And the wind only seems to blow at night when we don't need the power.

Has anyone tried to use a floresent light outside? They don't work to well. What do you think will happen in your freezer? Or have you replaced your head lights on you car with floresents?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I got halogen bulbs in my vehicle. You can see me from a mile away coming at you like a lightening bolt.
And it will be like that until there really is an intelligent change. ...

P.S. Those of you in Canada if you see this lightning bolt (me) WATCH OUT! lightening bolts are pretty quick. wink  

peace
Fe

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Quote:

So why does the Eurpoean private vehicle fleet average (say) 30 mpg, and the US one say 20 mpg? You don't think higher fuel taxes might have something to do with it?

UK gallons are bigger than US gallons (granted only by ~15%?).  

The solution.  Double the size of gallon and we double our milage!  Problem solved.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

However, I'm pretty sure litres are the same size both sides of the pond, which is how the price is calculated in Europe (even the UK).  I'd hope the folks that do the calcs convert it to US Gallons, but maybe not.

Posting guidelines FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm? (probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Hmmm,
I see we are back onto the same topic as before.
I started this thread separately because it wasn't about climate change but about rigging the data and just about everything else to position us in a tight place.
Somehow I get the feeling that the point has been missed.

If you guys think it would be OK in your own work to make the data fit the results, to manipulate the peer review process etc. I'd be mighty surprised.

I also feel that as usual we are not seeing the real issue here which is not climate change but the question of professional integrity and ethics.

I am fine with scientists making public the results of their research but when they go of beam and turn into social engineers who think they have to make choices for the rest of us I begin to get a bit hinky.

Still, if you guys are happy not to make the distinction between this thread and the original and still separate and viable thread then fine by me.



 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Not sure if you guys have seen this one:

http://www.hillsdale.edu/hctools/ImprimisTool/archives/2007_08_Imprimis.pdf

As for the manipulating of data, it is a byproduct of the "man made climate change problem" which is the root.

Actually, I have seen data manipulation in other places as well. Even in engineering. It seems that some "folk" in the area of data driven research are akin to this.

peace

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

JMW

You're right, anyone in any other profession would be ridiculed and toss out of every corner if they cooked data to obtain the end result that they wanted.  The problem with AGW is that everyone has been spoon-fed info for so long about how CO2 is 'harmful' and will destroy the Earth that no one's BS meter is in full tilt.

They assume that since CO2 is a GWG that the more that we put out, the more the Earth will warm.  Seems somewhat logical.  The real problem is that everyone gets lazy and doesn't think for themselves anymore.  They let the MSM dictate what they watch and listen to.  If it's not important enough to be on MSM then why bother?  If one actually pays attention to where the money is going they will see how and why this has happened.  Only now are people really starting to realize that AGW has no backbone to stand upon.  They 'lost' the original datasets and now only have their value added data to fall back on.  If that happened in any other profession you would be required to scrap all of your progress and start over.  Sadly, no one seems to want to do that.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

owg:  even in Ontario, 40% of your "hydro" comes from fossil fuels.  Consider Carnot and do the math- the CFLs are doing a good job ALL YEAR- unless you heat your home with electric resistance in which case you should give your head a shake.

cranky:  all my outdoor lights are CFLs and they work just fine- in Canada, where it gets plenty cold.  They do take a while to start up, but when running they do plenty more lumens per watt than any halogen bulb.  They're not as pretty and you can't dim them, but for raw efficiency they're great.  Do you dim your outdoor lights or care about their colour temperature?!

jmw:  I admitted that I personally made the whole AGW thing up.  What more do you want?  You can go on with life as normal, guilt free, because somebody lied about or distorted something.  Nobody in the AGW denial camp is guilty of any over-simplification, subterfuge or out-right lies- they only have our best intentions at heart- maintaining teh status quo that we're all comfortable with.  Go back to your homes- the whole thing was a hoax.  Shut up and consume- the convenience you've demanded is now mandatory!

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

molten, since you asked, my outdoor lights are either movement sensitive, or solar (because I was to lazy to run the wires).
If you really want efficent lights, look into HPS.

jwm, I have seen dishonesty for an agenda, but not to this scale. And it usually involved favors (translation: my good buddy). The root always seems to be a sales person, and a lack of ethics.
However, the person doing this did not feel bad about bending the facts.
But what is the difference between rigging a bid, or just never going out to bid? The customer pays more, and who cares?

Here is the concern; what if they did rigg the data, but broke no laws. What is the perception, or recourse?
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

FWIW, just saw this on BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8394483.stm

Quote:

UN body wants probe of climate e-mail row

The UN panel on climate change says claims UK scientists manipulated global warming data to boost the argument it is man-made should be investigated.

The allegations emerged after e-mails written by members of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia were posted on the internet.

Robert Watson, one of the government's chief scientific advisors, has called for all the raw data to be published.

Norfolk police are investigating whether computers were hacked.

'Serious issue'

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading body for assessing climate change science.

The organisation's chairman Dr Rajendra Pachauri told BBC Radio 4's The Report programme the claims were serious and he wants them investigated.

"We will certainly go into the whole lot and then we will take a position on it," he said.

"We certainly don't want to brush anything under the carpet. This is a serious issue and we will look into it in detail."

Last week, the IPCC defended its procedures in the wake of the row.

One of the leaked e-mails suggested CRU head Dr Phil Jones wanted certain papers excluded from the UN's next major assessment of climate science.

Dr Jones, who has stood aside from his job pending the results of an internal review, strenuously denies this was his intention and says other e-mails have been taken out of context.

The row broke out two weeks ago when hundreds of messages between scientists at the CRU and their peers around the world were put on the internet along with other documents.

Carbon intensity - A unit of measure. The amount of carbon emitted by a country per unit of Gross Domestic Product.
Suggest additions
Glossary in full

Climate "sceptics" have claimed that the e-mails undermine the scientific case for climate change being caused by humanity's greenhouse gas emissions, dubbing the issue "ClimateGate".

Other academics prominent in developing the mainstream view of climate science maintain that the contents of the stolen documents make no difference to the picture outlined by IPCC in its landmark 2007 assessment.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Moltenmetal,
I am happy to challenge you on AGW over on the other thread.

I wanted here to look at what these first revelations mean (there is said to be another 100MB waiting to be uploaded).

I know that some people think/believe. know that AGW is happening and others think/believe/know that it isn't.
Not just here but in the outside world.
There are climatologists on both sides, scientists on both sides.
The point here is about why scientists should expect to get away with manipulating data and the peer review process etc etc and what it says for AGW that they have to do so.

If anyone who was an advocate of AGW before still is as certain as before I'd find it hard to believe. I wouldn't necessarily expect hem to say OK, there is no AGW.
I would expect them to say "lets clear the debris and have a proper incontrovertible look in what's left over.

On the other side, there are many people who believe the AGW case is pure hokum many will say this just proves it.

I think it is hokum but I don't think this proves it. I think it does raise some very serious questions and I think that because of that I'd be even more loathe to endorse any precautionary principle or any major government shenanigans on the back of it.

I'll go further and say that if the majority of the popuation wants to cut way back on emissions even though they don't think AAGW is real but just because its a good thing then I'd have to go along.

What really bugs me is that we are heading for the situation where even though a majority of the population may think AGW doesn't exist or simply irrespective of whether it exists or not, that they'd like not to do what the pollies want to do, then the pollies have no business doing stuff that only a minority favour doing. That isn't democracy, that's a fair ways along toward a totalitarian state.

Oh, and by the way, the guy who really scares me is John Holden.
he wants to talk about "climate disruption" because "climate change".

I'd like to see these guys just present the facts in an unemotional neutral way, explain carefully and then let people make value judgements about what should be done.

Too many of these scientists are telling us not only what the problem is but what we should do and they aren't even concerned to let us decide if we want to do anything or not.

So, if you want to go that extra mile on green living fine, but unless a majority agrees to do so too, I'll choose what I want to do and how I want to do it.

 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Can we put GW on trial like they did Darwin?
However in some peoples mind, we still haven't concluded that.

I don't think the issue is if GW exists. It should be why are goverments not listening to the population.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I hate to harp on this point, something that I keep bringing up every time this thread reappears:

Why is the climate at (insert your favourite date here) constitute "good" and any deviation from it, whether caused by anthropogenic means or not, constitute "bad"?

Imagine our caveman forefathers having this discussion near the end of the last ice-age.  Global warming was certainly happening then.  Sea levels rose >80ft.  Massive ice sheets and glaciers melted.  But, that condition was all that mankind at that point knew - so the changes (as in climate change) were, no doubt, catastrophic for them.  Some species became extinct.  Some human populations likely died.  Humans as a species, however, moved on, adapted, and went along our merry way.

So, whether or not climate change is anthropogenic or not, who really cares?  Seriously!  Adapt or die.  Move or die.  That's kinda the way this planet rolls.  Or at least has rolled for the last 5+ billion years.  What makes this moment in time so different.

Back to the original topic - did the folks at CRU cook the books?  I don't know.  I think that phrases like "used so-and-so's TRICK" are pretty common slang for clever ideas - I use them all the time.  "Hide the decline" on the other hand sounds suspicious.

I don't want to take another's word for it that AGW is happening - show me the DATA.  Not the cooked and modified and fixed data, but the DATA.  And, while they're at it, show the source code for their climate models.  We can only argue with their predictions if we know what their predictions are predicated on.  From the sounds of some of these e-mails, the assumptions and correlations are so convoluted, that eventually they just fit the models to the data.  Unfortunately, the models no longer represent any physical phenomenon.  Or, the models that did represent physical phenomenon can't predict the actual data.  Sounds like a good reason to start back at square one to me - not try to bring about financial and governmental changes.

Like JMW and moltenmetal (and others) have said - saving a finite resource in fossil fuels is a good reason in and of itself to conserve.  But don't couch the argument in "the planet is going to self-destruct" because of warming.  That's simply dishonest.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

i think it does matter whether climate change is caused by AGW or by some other "natural" process.  if it is by a "natural" process (like changes in the big glowing ball in the sky) then you could say it was meant to happen, and we'd probably focus on dealing with the situation that results.  if it is driven by AGW processes then you could reasonably conclude that we're messing with the "natural" climate (sort of analogous to pollution) and we should stop, etc.

the problem with the politics of CC is that it's become so politicised that both sides of the political spectrum offer the same policy, trying to attract voters.  maybe we're seeing the beginnings of questioning, and the proposal of an alternative policy (maybe one focused on conservative, rather than controlling CO2 in the atmosphere) to give voters a choice.

here's hoping ...

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

GregLocock - That's a fair point, but how much of the behavior change was at the consumer level, and how much was at the manufacturer level?  And how much did the manufacturer's response actually offset some of the consumer behavior?

I presume there are effects on both sides.  That being said, I still stand by the notion that levying taxes makes to discourage certain action makes for a good behavior modification technique.
 

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Cajun

I disagree, negative reinforcement never/rarely works.  What you will do is tax the corporations for spewing out emissions and they will pass that along to consumers.  If consumers don't have any other option they will be forced to pay the prices and deal with it until there is a breaking point.  Either the economy bankrupts itself or there is a revolt among the people.  Neither of which we should be doing to try and force environmental changes that may or may not make any difference.

What happens when the world reduces their CO2 output and the world starts (or continues) warming?  Are the scientists going to say that we aren't doing enough or will they be willing to rethink their ideas?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Buffett said that there have been something like 1000 car companies in the USA. Now there are, well, one really.

Making cars is intensely competitive, car companies regularly went bust when they tried to sell something that consumers weren't interested in. They don't go bust if they invest several years profits in bringing out an alternative as quickly as they can. BTDT twice.

What I am getting at is that given new car will only sell profitably if (a) it meets the government regs (so clunky as it is CAFE does have some effect) and (b) customers want it. To satisfy the tradeoffs in the latter we build funny little models, that attempt to provide an optimum profitability, base don the attractivenss of various features.

Does a customer want 3* crash or 5*? 5* of course.

That adds $2000 to the price, increases the car's mass by 50 kg, reduces fuel consumption by 3%. Does the customer still want it? Well, he doesn't care about mass. Our engine boys can probably get that 3% back for $500, that's what the customer has been buying.

Or say we can improve the 0-60 time by 1 second, with no degradation in fuel consumption for another $500? Guess what, that is what customers have been going for, for the last 20 years.

The truth is that even at $4 per gallon the cost of fuel is a small fraction of the true cost of ownership of a new vehicle, as such tax increases on fuel have to be enormous before they provide a signal to the market for new cars.
 

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Sorry, that was spectacularly incoherent. Here's what i should have typed

Buffett said that there have been something like 1000 car companies in the USA. Now there are, well, one really.

Making cars is intensely competitive, car companies regularly went bust when they tried to sell something that consumers weren't interested in, but the car company thought they /should/ buy. If they don't go bust as a result it is because they invest several years profits in bringing out an alternative as quickly as they can. BTDT twice.

What I am getting at is that given new car will only sell profitably if (a) it meets the government regs (so clunky as it is CAFE does have some effect) and (b) customers want it. To satisfy the tradeoffs in the latter we build funny little models, that attempt to provide an optimum profitability, based on the attractiveness of various features.

For the last 20 years cars have been getting heavier, more crashworthy, and faster. Fuel consumption has remained about the same. The reasoning roughly is as follows-

Does a customer want 3* crash or 5*? 5* of course.

That adds $2000 to the price, increases the car's mass by 50 kg, reduces fuel consumption by 3%. Does the customer still want it? Well, he doesn't care about mass. Our engine boys can probably get that 3% back for $500, that's what the customer has been buying.

And say we can improve the 0-60 time by 1 second, with no degradation in fuel consumption for another $500? Guess what, that is what customers have been going for, for the last 20 years.

10-15 years ago Audi released a small diesel car. It got something around 60 mpg in real life usage. Disappeared without trace.

The truth is that even at $4 per gallon the cost of fuel is a small fraction of the true cost of ownership of a new vehicle, as such tax increases on fuel have to be enormous before they provide a signal to the market for new cars.

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

NormLaser - ==> I disagree, negative reinforcement never/rarely works.
I'm completely with you.  Please see my post of 2 Dec 09 9:43, paragraph three, where I argue against taxes.  My post of 4 Dec 09 17:02 should say that although I recognize Greg's point about EU fuel taxes, I stand by the notion that taxes are NOT a good behavior modification technique.

Greg - If I'm reading it correctly, I think you're supporting the case against taxes as a means to control behavior.  In your post of 2 Dec 09 16:57 you ask, "So why does the European private vehicle fleet average (say) 30 mpg, and the US one say 20 mpg? You don't think higher fuel taxes might have something to do with it?".  In your post of 5 Dec 09 1:29 you tell of the 60 mpg diesel that disappeared without a trace and further, that even a $4/g tax is a small fraction of the cost.  In fact, tax increases on fuel have to be enormous before they provide a signal to the market for new cars.

So what does account for the higher efficiency vehicles in Europe?  What I'm wondering is if in response to the higher taxes, did the European buying public opt for a more efficient product rather than a change in attitude and behavior.  As I said in my post of 4 Dec 09 17:02, I suspect there is probably a little bit of both.

Good Luck
--------------
As a circle of light increases so does the circumference of darkness around it. - Albert Einstein

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

This should really make Copenhagen interesting

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6945445.ece

Quote:


Met Office to re-examine 160 years of climate data

The Met Office plans to re-examine 160 years of temperature data after admitting that public confidence in the science on man-made global warming has been shattered by leaked e-mails.

The new analysis of the data will take three years, meaning that the Met Office will not be able to state with absolute confidence the extent of the warming trend until the end of 2012.

The Met Office database is one of three main sources of temperature data analysis on which the UN's main climate change science body relies for its assessment that global warming is a serious danger to the world. This assessment is the basis for next week's climate change talks in Copenhagen aimed at cutting CO2 emissions.

The Government is attempting to stop the Met Office from carrying out the re-examination, arguing that it would be seized upon by climate change sceptics.

The Met Office works closely with the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), which is being investigated after e-mails written by its director, Phil Jones, appeared to show an attempt to manipulate temperature data and block alternative scientific views.

The Met Office's published data showing a warming trend draws heavily on CRU analysis. CRU supplied all the land temperature data to the Met Office, which added this to its own analysis of sea temperature data.

Since the stolen e-mails were published, the chief executive of the Met Office has written to national meteorological offices in 188 countries asking their permission to release the raw data that they collected from their weather stations.

The Met Office is confident that its analysis will eventually be shown to be correct. However, it says it wants to create a new and fully open method of analysing temperature data.

The development will add to fears that influential sceptics in other countries, including the US and Australia, are using the controversy to put pressure on leaders to resist making ambitious deals for cutting CO2.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change admitted yesterday that it needed to consider the full implications of the e-mails and whether they cast doubt on any of the evidence for man-made global warming.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

i find it odd that the NOAA says their data is good and they're predicting the same thing as the alledged "fudged" CRU data ...

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"Buffett said that there have been something like 1000 car companies in the USA. Now there are, well, one really."

greg, i guess i'd count two (US car manufacturers) ... Ford and GM (opps, the US govt)

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

The US government runs a large social security system. Some of the inmates make license plates, some make cars to put them on. (yes that was a joke)

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

When money is at stake people are capable of anything.  I really don't know if global warming is man made or natural.  I don't know if warming will be a net good or a net bad.  I don't know is the associate of rising carbon dioxide and temperatures is just an association or a causattion.  

What I do no is that those who highly favor government power and control love the issue. I listened to  Mikhail Gorbachev live in a speach go on and on about how global warming was a big reason why (I'm paraphrasing here) Socialism should be looked at again, etc, etc...  The point is that for socialist global warming has long been a favorite topic.  

Bottom line is if you want more grants and research money your results had better support the importance of your existence.  

I still believe that conservation, recycling, and using resources as efficiently as possible only makes good economic sense. Economics and a sustainable planet really do go hand in hand.  After all does it make sense to cut down a forest and not replant?  You have to keep buying more and more land otherwise!

 

John Southard, M.S., P.E.
http://www.pdhlibrary.com

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Did anyone see the article in the druge report about the climate summit?
1200 limos, 140 privite planes and caviar wedges, "We haven't got enough limos in the country to fulfil the demand"

Sort of hypicratical that they want us the people to cut back, and they can't even carpool from the airport, or share a limo.

Which is a good part of why I oppose cutting my carbon foot print, it apperently dosen't apply to everyone.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Yeah I read that on another site and agree.  Did you see that there isn't enough room at the airport for everyone's private planes so they have to fly them to other area airports after they drop off their passengers?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Cajun Centurion. My point was that even with european fuel taxes as high as they are, they weren't enough to make an expensive 60 mpg car attractive. They would need to be higher.

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

At some income level the cost of gas dosen't matter. At some cost, people won't buy new cars.
So where exactly does the demand curve for 60MPG cars cross the price curve? Likely at the current cost of such cars, there won't be much demand at any gas price.

More likely people will find alternitives, to buying 60MPG cars.
The law of unintended events predicts we won't like the outcome.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

magic carpets? roller skates?

Seriously, what makes you think that customers are not rational?

Thus far I'd say they've been reasonably predictable. When the price of gas goes up they switch to smaller cars.

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

SIG:Please see FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies for tips on how to make the best use of Eng-Tips.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

For example, you might be right to a point. But as cars become more expencive, car thefts will go up. The law of unintended events happens.

Anytime you make something more valuable, cars, or gas, you will increase crime, and the cost of insurance.

No thank you, I'll keep my $1000 used car, and save the other $19000 to buy gas with.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"The law of unintended events" ? ... sounds like something Douglas Adams would have written about ...

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Debating climate change is completely missing the point. Passing enough legislations to curb emissions without overstepping government boundaries will not be possible.

Do we want to live in a world where government establishes the amount of emissions that is allowed to raise a cow, transport it to the slaughter house and then to the supermarket? How do you allocate allowable emissions between different industries?  Human behavior is what causes greenhouse gases. The two methods to control human behavior is either to tax or outright ban that behavior with threat of incarceration.

While the American EPA had success in reducing emissions and protecting the environment, it has also overstepped its mandated powers. The EPA shouldn't have the ability to put the country's economy to a grinding halt through its decisions, but it does. There's also the danger of putting environmental extremists into power. You can't vote the EPA out, and disputes are settled in a courthouse nightmare.

Then we have third world countries like Brazil, who are demanding that developed nations pay money in order to prevent deforestation in the Amazon. Those hungry and jobless people in the rainforest aren't thinking so much of global warming as much as clearing land to grow food.

The Copenhagen climate summit is nothing more than a photo op for politicians. Not only are they incapable of identifying a problem, there is no way of enforcing emissions control on a grand scale. Not without adverse impact on farming, livestock raising, international trade and manufacturing.

The greatest threat stemming from the climate change meeting is that of national sovereignty. The majority of U.S. citizens don't want their lives impacted by decisions made between foreign countries, and decided in Copenhagen. We have enough in the population who are upset by decisions made in Washington D.C.

There's no more incentive for environmental stewardship than people not wanting to trash where they live, most people anyway - there's no need for the tear jerk reaction of polar bears drowning.  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"The greatest threat stemming from the climate change meeting is that of national sovereignty. The majority of U.S. citizens don't want their lives impacted by decisions made between foreign countries, and decided in Copenhagen. We have enough in the population who are upset by decisions made in Washington D.C. "

Hang on, what is this, the interwar period?  Have I time travelled back to the 20's/30's and isolationism?  Don't get me wrong, when I was a Brit I wasn't a big fan of Brussels telling me how straight my cucumber had to be etc. but isolationism was arguable one of the causes of the 2nd world war, do we really want to go there again?

Posting guidelines FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm? (probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

The idea of a Global Governance is silly then throw in the socialist ideas of spreading the wealth to developing nations so that developed nations' economies go in the tank is absurd.  There will be another revolution in the US if that ever comes about.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"Hang on, what is this, the interwar period?  Have I time travelled back to the 20's/30's and isolationism?  Don't get me wrong, when I was a Brit I wasn't a big fan of Brussels telling me how straight my cucumber had to be etc. but isolationism was arguable one of the causes of the 2nd world war, do we really want to go there again?"

My statement is suggesting that state rights trumps federal interference as outlined in the U.S. Constitution. During the Bush presidency, California sued the EPA for not allowing the state to set its own auto emissions standards. This case isn't about moral high ground in enforcing more stringent emissions regulations, but a question of state rights. Conveniently, since the EPA recently granted California the rights to set emissions standards until 2012, all 16 states in the lawsuit forgets it was a state right.

Fast forward to yesterday and the EPA's announcement that greenhouse gases are harmful and they have the authority to regulate it. The EPA shouldn't have the final authority in economic matters. There's no checks and balances. It's a government monster that used to provide for the public good that has now run amuck.

Add states that talk about secession, one civil war about state rights, and one war for independence; which will explain why there's a strong resentment - felt by a section of the population - over domestic, state issues being influenced internationally that have no right to be done so. Well, there's a war or two in the Middle East, but who says history is without irony.
 
You could have isolationism the other way around. Suppose the climate change bill increases manufacturing costs at home, and companies decide to offshore jobs. There's the possibility of more trade tariffs being imposed. It has already happened with Chinese tires.

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"how straight my cucumber had to be" ... that just goes to so many Wrong places !!  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

What would happen if we woke up one day to find that XXX was proven not to exist?

For XXX substitute either

a) God
b) AGW

Is there a difference? Both are based on faith or belief and both have many adherents making a damned good living out of that belief.

More evidence please (of either or both)
  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Well god has a book, AGW has a movie. So do you prefer wine, or popcorn?

And the book of god tells of helping the poor, where the movie of AWG tells of making the poor poorer.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Careful Cranky, the book of God (by the way which one, I'm guessing you mean AV Bible or something like that) also talks about sacrificing your daughter and the like.

It's dangerous enough discussing 'climate change' (or whatever your preferred term is), now we've added 'states rights' and you've added religion.

What next, someone going to come in with something about how an agreement at Copenhagen might infringe second amendment rights by putting controls on the combustion byproducts of propellant.

That should really have the John Birch/Michigan Militia bunch wound up.
 

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RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I challenge the members here to locate Copenhagen on a map of the World with no political boundaries or other clues.

- Steve

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

sure, it's just at the base of the sticking-out bit (commonly called denmark) on the south shore of the baltic at the west end (the entrance) (on the west side) ...
and the baltic is the sea north of europe (mainland) that makes sweden look like ... well you know ...  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Good point though, are you allowed o grow your own cucumbers now and eat them?
The ones you grow will be curved, the supermarket cucumbers are straight but for the life of me, I can't remember why this was an issue for legislation.
But when some government starts legislating the shape of vegetables you know your in trouble.
 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

lmao rb1957, my first thought was also immediately somewhat dirty. "it's the tip of the <insert biological reference here>"

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

My point is that any religon you have to believe. The only proof is that which seems to come from man/ or was it another source (I personally like the magic smoke vision thing).

But since we have been fighting wars, off and on for thousands of years, over religon. And we haven't come to a conclusion. Are we to do the same with AGW?

Soon enough, if we don't kill ourselves first, we will be having a debate over if we should mine the moon or Mars.

If we classify AGW as a religon, can we assume there is a god that watches over it? Or is this a godless religon, with no commandments, just save the earth direction.

Don't the Chineese reject religon? If so do they also reject AGW?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Greg, there's a huge amount of elasticisty in the demand for fuels, but you're right:  the more they cost, the more people work and innovate and expend capital and make purchasing decisions in an effort to avoid or reduce the high cost.

That's the market working.

All the elasticity means is that you need even MORE tax to achieve the desired effect.

Use the tax revenue to help people kick the monkey off their backs and they'll be more willing to make the necessary changes in their choices, their lifestyle etc.

People like the convenience that cheap energy gives them.  They don't particularly care to pay huge fractions of their income on fuels.  Once they've made the change to conservation, they get the savings every onward.

Without the market feedback, the comments about the virtues of conservation is just lip service.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Greg...you're comment about social security was meant as a joke but incredibly accurate!!

Global warming has been going on since the last ice age...so what!  The climate data interpretations are BS...humans aren't causing it...farting cows aren't causing it...it will happen without regard to "us".

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

With all the small effects, and the reported tempeture differences being so small, only careful evaluations can be sure of any true warming or cooling.
And we have recently witnessed much greater verability in tempetures, which make accurate tempeture readings more difficult.

So how do we actually know there is a tempeture change, or someone is fudging the data? And how do we really determine what is causing the change?

I believe there are to many things going on to make a determination. So the goverment needs to tax us into caves just in case there is a change in tempeture that might be caused by humans.
(one interesting morning, and sarcasim helps).

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Cranky - I suggest that you follow wattsupwiththat.com because they are going through the CRU data and code and their findings on the datasets (and actual station information and history) is amazing.  Only time will show the truth and by the sounds of it the current administration isn't going to allow that to happen.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

either i'm too cynical or you're way too optmistic (that reason will triumph over greed and ego) ...

come on, can you see these guys (Gore on down) saying "Woops guys, it's seems we were wrong ... carry on regardless".  

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

It's simple you vote twice. Vote at the election booth, and vote with your dollors.

Do exactly what they say, ride your bike to work, and don't pay gas taxes.

Grow your own garden, and don't pay sales tax, or farmers to grow the food.

Max out your 401K, and reduce your income taxes.

Make your mark by spending less.

They will soon find out what the economy is made of.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

The wattsup site seems to be finding problems wherever it looks, but I suspect that is an unconscious bias, they only write up where they find a problem.

It certainly looks as though one particular tree ring researcher had an agenda. Resampling of the SAME TREES as he used shows he selected which cores to analyse with an end in sight.

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Greg, kind of hard not to find issues with the way things have been handled at UEA.  It's just now the skeptics are finally getting their time in the spotlight after being suppressed and sidelined from journals for over a decade.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Tree rings? What makes a ring bigger or smaller? Lets see, the length of the growing season, water, tempeture, co2 level, soil nutretents, so which are you really measuring?

I'm not an expert on this but it looks like there are several things that can affect this. I mean a deer that dies near will supply soil nutretents for several years.

Call me a sceptic, but this dosen't seem like an exact science. And this should be different with different locations and species. So sample size will affect the stistical results.
Which means there should be a confidance factor with each clame.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

i take your point ... but presumably with many sampling points it'd take a lot of deer with a very co-ordinated plan to upset the record.  how good a proxy is tree ring data for temperature ?  i don't know, sounds fishy, sounds distinctly fishy where some of the data goes to a single tree in the gaspe (part of quebec) ... back to that deer point

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Where there is raw data it is quite interesting.
Watts Up with that fetures video by a boy and his dad.
They went through the US statiosna and picked pairs of stations within 6o km of each other, one urban and one rural.
Did this across the US.
Then they looked at the data.
The ruban stations show a continuing rise. The rural stations show pretty much no warming from 1880 or whenever (see the vid for exact info).
WUWT also looks at the Darwin data in Australia. No evident warming in the raw data but a step up function in the "value added" data.
The New Zealand data shows virtually no evidence of warming of the long term in the raw data but in the "value added" data - a graph started by Dr Jim Salinger when he was at UEA we have evident warming.

It seems that in many cases the abnormal temperature rises are an artefact of the corrections applied.

That isn't good

 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

JMW, the news of this info needs to spread like wildfire.  MSM isn't going to pick it up, or at the very least they haven't heard of it.  The other problem is that this is backyard scientists and they will never get the light of day because it's not 'peer-reviewed'.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?


Great point NomLaser

when will people see that "backyard scientists", "videos by a boy and his dad", and blog run by the former weatherman of Fox news are all valid forms of scientific research? What's up with that?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Because it goes against the spoon-fed info that everyone has been accepting as fact for the past decade so it must be wrong.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Keep following Watts Up With That - as I said in the pub - seems hard to find raw rural data that isn't flat or showing a general cooling despite the "value added" data showing pronounced warming.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?


Exactly Nomlaser, and people should believe us skeptics
"just because we say so".

Because "just because we say so" is tangible scientific argumentation when spoken by a skeptic.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

That's a funny thing to say given the recent emails, where the 'scientists' were so convinced they were on the right track that they manipulated the data to support their theories, and suppressed counter-arguments in the serious reviews.

 

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Greg, there is definitely an ethics issue regarding the emails that surfaced. No one is denying this.

However, there are several ethical problems when the skeptics continually choose to use the "it's right because we said so" argument again and again. And with no references except one blog.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Joseph...obviously you aren't paying attention to who is actually writing those blogs.  These are climate scientists that WUWT gets to write these pieces.  Until UEA and NASA and any other institute that holds temperature data can release raw (unaltered) data then how can anyone accept anything that they push out?  Even the Japanese scientists haven't accepted GCC, and they are being referenced by all of the alarmists. http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/02/25/jstor_climate_report_translation/
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

the "it's right because we said so" argument again and again.

That's the line used by the 'alarmists'. Most think that they don't even have to address any 'sceptics' concerns.
 
How often have we heard that "the science is settled, the debate is over"?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

For the debate to be over, whould we have had to know it had started?

They did not want a debate, that's why they are saying it is over.

In either case we "should" reduce our energy usage, for a number of reasons. Or look at other energy sources.
But if we are to be fausley couersed into an agenda, then we are victoms of a fraud. A crime in most places, and those who developed this should be held accountable.

So how do you proceed with those who proceeded to stiffle debate?
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Quote:

So how do you proceed with those who proceeded to stiffle debate?

You shout even louder and that's exactly what is happening now.  The skeptics are finally getting a platform, mostly due to the revelations at UEA.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Yes, but it is worth trying to keep an even keel.

On the one hand, much of the AGW orthodoxy looks um, dodgy, for various reasons.

On the other hand, even though the games they indulged in reduce the credibility of the evidence, there still seems no open and shut case that they are wrong - that is although there is no compelling reason based on physics that they are right, there is at least the infamous/hilarious/vitally important (take your pick) hockey stick graph* to consider, which at the least needs a lot more data pumped into it. If they are on the right track, and it is possible to limit global warming by burning less fossil fuel, and that is a cost effective (however you wish to define cost effective) approach, then it is worth considering. Many of the first steps along the path of energy efficiency are worth taking anyway, it is shear lethargy that stops us from doing them.

In reality of course Copenhagen will be almost a complete failure, and since it will take three years for the Met Office to sort out the mess the CRU has made of the basic data, effectively the science and the politics is in a holding pattern for 3 years. I guess the good news is we'll have three years more data of CO2 vs temperature. The bad news is we'll have 3 more years of silly hysteria from the journalists and the politicians and the sheep. And of course, if things are urgent now (big if) then they'll be even urgenter in 3 years time. So, what is really needed, from either side (if you want to take sides) is for CRU to supply the Met Office with the raw data and its provenance ASAP, and let them produce a reliable dataset to base the hockeystick on.

*I should explain, the IPCC 2001 report included the hockeystick graph (several times) of global temperature that was based on a series of corrected temperature measurements, for the last 150 years, and surrogates such as tree ring data, for the last 1200 years or so. This showed a very rapid change in temperature for the last 150 years, culminating in a peak higher than that seen for 1000 years. This data was fed into a faulty statistical algorithm that tended to create hockey stick shaped graphs even if the raw data had no trend. However, it turns out that although this was bad mathematics, the net effect of this bad analysis was actually quite small, and the hockey stick shape still exists if you do the stats properly, with the same datasets. However there is an ongoing saga with the validity of the datasets that were used. Which is why it is so important that the data that goes in needs sorting out.

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"effectively the science and the politics is in a holding pattern for 3 years."

i think you're being optimistic greg.  the believers believe and this thing's going to "keep on keeping on".  personally i await more hot air.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Yup.

Since I'm writing essays tonight-

There is a "so damn reasonable" argument that says, OK, maybe the science isn't 100%. But suppose it is only 10% probable that they are right? Shouldn't we do what we are told because even a 10% chance of the end of the world is worth avoiding?

This, of course, is the old Simpson's argument - won't anybody think of the children?

The answer lies in the dismal science (economics, and it isn't a science) - no, it is not worth taking extraordinary measures to avoid unlikely outcomes. IF the global temperature rises, and IF that is a bad thing, then we will have to take extraordinary action to recover. High altitude sulphur crystal sprays. Nukes, everywhere. Solar powered domestic hot water systems in Australia (high tech eh?).

I'm quite serious about the ideal temperature thing. Who decides what the best temperature should be? As cold as the Little Ice Age? No thanks. As hot as AD 0 or thereabouts? maybe.


  

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I see the mayors of the world's big cities are heading to Copenhagen this week. Too bad they are not doing it be video conference. That would have been a useful statement. At least they will publicize that 70% of the CO2 comes from the cities. That should take a bit of heat off the oil sands. I predict that industry will be moving to small cities.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Greg,

You've over-simplified the precautionary principle argument to the point of absurdity.  I could do the same to the skeptics' arguments, which seem to be basically underpinned by fear of change.  

The precautionary principle is used in virtually every aspect of engineering design we do where public health and safety are at stake, and I see this issue as absolutely no different.

Simply stated, the precautionary argument is as follows:  

1)    Fossil fuel supplies are finite, and exploration, recovery, refining and combustion of these fuels all produce known harmful effects on people and on ecosystems.  The mere procurement of these fuels results in vast flows of wealth from productive parts of the world to unproductive ones.
2)    Combustion of fossil fuels has caused a near-doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations since pre-industrial times.  That's not conjecture based on models- most of the increase has been determined based on direct measurements of the atmosphere.
3)    Increased atmospheric CO2 will take a long time to reverse, if reversal is even possible.
4)    Increased atmospheric CO2 is having and will have effects which we cannot completely predict.  Some, like the acidification of surface ocean water, are easy to demonstrate and very negative to aquatic life.
5)    There is a PROBABILITY that increased CO2 will lead to increased infrared capture from the sun, leading to alterations in the climate.
6)    Fossil fuels are useful for other things essential to modern existence, and these uses are far more difficult to substitute for than their use as energy sources.

Because of ALL of these factors, it makes sense for governments to undertake regulation and taxation to help wean our societies off their fossil fuels addiction- something the mere finite nature of the fossil fuels themselves will ultimately do to us regardless.

If we discover later and conclusively that we were wrong about point 5) and we don't care about points 2,3 and 4,  we can always start burning fossil fuels again with gusto- while they last, that is.
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I'm sorry, all this 'whats up with that' talk is reminding of the SNL sketch 'wat up wid dat' or whatever it's called.  I keep singing the song in my head and may start dancing if I don't skip this thread soon.

Back to your scheduled programming...

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RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Has there even been a face to face debate between the believers and the non-believers?  Why can't we have a televised, moderated debate amongst the scientists (no politicians)?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"Why can't we have a televised, moderated debate amongst the scientists"

Which would you watch, the debate (two scientists haggling for hours about the proper correction to be applied to the East Bumfarg Station temperature data), or Jessica Simpson's latest wardrobe malfunction...

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Moltenmetal,

1) Agree 100%
2) Um, 280 ppm (pre industrial) to 370 ppm (year 2000) is nowhere near a doubling
3) Unproven, but possible. The recent work on the rate of absorption of CO2 back out of the atmosphere by natural processes indicates that they are still work extracting about the same proportion as before, as you would expect from chemistry. So you'd expect an exponential dcay back to the steady state level.
4) Don't know enough about this one, sounds right, but there are positive effects as well, such as increased plant growth
5) But the absence of changes in the atmospheric temperature profile do not appear to provide a phsyically believable mechanism for this.
6) Agree 100%

The problem is that an ETS is a lousy way of reducing fossil fuel usage. So if you introduce an ETS to solve AGW, in fact you'll end up using more fossil fuel than if you targeted them directly.  

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Moltenmetal states:
 "Fossil fuel supplies are finite, and exploration, recovery, refining and combustion of these fuels all produce known harmful effects on people and on ecosystems."

And of course large scale use of fossil fuels have produced beneficial effects on people for a couple of hundred years. According to Isaac Asimov - Many of the benefits of our high standard of living including, light, heat, food, travel, and community, are based on our ability to produce and use fossil fuels.

Surely a probablistic cost/benefit approach is needed, rather than just listing all the costs.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

owg:  I'm not ignoring the benefits of fossil fuels, which are obvious.  I'm merely pointing out AGAIN that fossil fuels are artificially cheap because the people who consume them do not pay anything approximating the FULL cost of their consumption.  People who are not afforded the benefit of using these fossil fuels to enhance their own quality of life are having to bear some of the consequences of their exploitation by people who squander them needlessly.  These "negative externalities" and the cheapness of the resource which results leads inevitably to over-exploitation and waste.  Excess and waste shortens the time over which we'll be able to exploit these fuels for true human benefit.

Any honest cost/benefit analysis will never justify waste.  And face it- North American energy use is a story of unbridled excess and waste.

On top of all of this, there are the various threats posed by the massive historical increase and unbelievably rapid and unchecked growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  Greg's right- we haven't doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations yet, but we're well on our way.  We're currently adding nearly 2 ppm per year.

As a chemical engineer you also should be fully aware that there are far higher uses for these fossil resources, which are also essential to our modern lifestyle.  As unimaginable as it seems to be to some engineers here, it is far easier and cheaper to substitute other sources of energy for the energetic uses of fossil fuels than it is to replace them as chemical feedstocks.

AGW or no, we'd better get on with this transition NOW rather than waiting.  The more we delay, the rougher it'll be on all of us.
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Molten

While I agree that we should do something sooner than later, the approach that is being taken is not the most economical path to take to get us there.  Yes we need to do it quick but not at the expense of high energy taxes and exporting currency to developing nations that already compete for our industrial work.  

Do those in Europe realize how big (land mass wise) the US really is?  North America is nearly 2.4x's larger than Europe.  Our average density is 21 people per km^2 vs 69.7 in Europe.  So Europe has >3x's as many people living in 40% of the area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continent

It's no wonder why we, in the US, use so much fuel.  Our cities are spread out further and there is little to no mass transportation between small and large cities.  Most of the people that I know, have to travel 40-60 miles each way to work, everyday.  And that's not by choice because most small cities usually only have 1-2 fairly large manufacturers that house industrial/manufacturing work.  

This is going to sound egotistical but what I'm getting at is that I hate it when people start pointing fingers at the US and say 'see you're the biggest consumer so you have to pay us money for living a decent life.'  Why should I have to give up my lifestyle because some bloke in the China or India wants it too?  The world isn't a socialist government, at least not yet.  We have paid our dues in education and hard work to get where we are.  Why should we have to be the ones that spread our wealth?  If China adobted some labor laws and enforced safety among their workforce then they would be far better off.  I don't agree that US companies should be exploiting third-world workforce but their governments are allowing it to happen.  So don't blame the US for the issues in third-world countries.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"Do those in Europe realize how big (land mass wise) the US really is? "

Well, on average, I wouldn't be surprised if they have a much better idea about it than most folks in the US have about similar info for Europe, or even other than their own state.  My guess is most of them even know which coasts the Pacific & Atlantic are on toowinky smile.

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RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Kenat, you're probably right.  We do tend to be self-centered and think somewhat isolated.  Some of that is laziness on our part for not paying attention to anything beyond our shores.  The other part is that we aren't centrally located to the rest of the world, therefore aren't exposed as much to what goes on.  I would put the blame for our world knowledge upon ourselves.  

I was really trying to get to the point that we are more spread out than what much of Europe is and that commuting is a necessity.  We don't have a vast mass transportation.  I'm lucky enough to live in an area where I can find work in neighboring cities within a 50 mile (80km) radius so that is commutable.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

However, to some extent that is self imposed.  Sure the country is big so distances between cities etc will in some cases be very large.

However, why does each individual city have to be so spread out, and in fact some especially in the North East aren't to the same extent as I understand it.  I hear that folks in New York actually walk places!

So, while there is some truth/merit in what you say, I suspect it gets overplayed.

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RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"folks in New York actually walk places!" ... only if they want to get mugged ...  ;)

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

GregLocock/Moltenmetal,

Actuually,

2  This is ignoring the enormous benefits of increased CO2 in the atmosphere in relation to plant and vegetation growth. If the world wants to keep feeding its increasing population, then we need more CO2. If it turns out the greenhouse logic regarding CO2 is grossly overstated, we could hurt ourselves enormously by reducing CO2! And if the idiots who are trying to come up with a way to scrub some or all of it out of the atmosphere are successful, we may all starve to death beacsue of a lack of CO2.

Why isn't anyone pushing for population control as a solution!!! Seems a lot more logical!

4 Has aquatic life been proven to have been reduced by CO2 or have we just over-fished it?
Is population control the solution here also?

5  My understanding is that CO2 has little effect on incoming heat/radiation from the sun. Its effect is supposedly to stop the outgoing heat/radation from the earth from escaping.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

[BEIJING] Rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could make rice and wheat grow faster but be less nutritious, say Chinese scientists. The impact on agriculture could be profound.

"The protein level will decrease by ten per cent by about 2050, and elements such as iron and zinc will also decline," says Zhu Jianguo, a senior scientist with the Nanjing-based Institute of Soil Sciences, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.


http://www.scidev.net/en/news/rising-carbon-dioxide-could-make-crops-less-nutrit.html

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Quote:

Their study predicts that if air temperature continues to increase by 0.04 degrees Celsius each year, the amount of organic matter — derived from decaying animal and plant life — in rice fields will fall by seven per cent by 2050.

Wonder if they took into account the 15% in extra plant growth?  Could the low air quality in China have any impact upon this study?  So many more questions...

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Just realized the date of the article, March 2005.  Wonder if they did any follow-ups.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

yeah, the trouble with the internet ... once it's there, it's there for good

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"rb1957 (Aerospace)      
16 Dec 09 12:41
yeah, the trouble with the internet ... once it's there, it's there for good "

...but if Al Gore invented the internet, can't he just delete all this so he can continue to profit from it?

Engineering has always been my love, but it ended up being my second career...

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Actually, quite a bit of teh internet gets deleted, or at least given a very low profile on the popular search engines. I am not sure of the interplay between politics and Google , etc, but some politically embarassing pages that were avaialable years ago no longer to be found. I suspect the same censorship accomplished in China occurs in all countries, and all are equally adept at convincing the peons that it doesn't occur in their country.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

It's not just the internet apperently that gets deleted. But it appears goverment documents also get deleted from our national archives.

It looks like, from my perspective, that there is things going on that we are not intended to see. So it also appears we can't trust our own goverment.

I understand nation securty things, but weather chart data? NASA won't or can't release that data not only is a national shame, but looks like a coverup.
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

@ TC ... maybe he will ... maybe none of this happened ?? ... maybe be ... damnit, i forget ... OMG, he's at work inside my head, erasing me .... arrrrgggghhhhh

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

cranky108 - What is the issue with weather chart data? I recall during WW2 there were no public weather forecasts in the UK and presumably other countries. Is that the issue, after all we are at war?

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

In WWII the wether forcasts in England whould have helped Germany. So are you compairing the war on terrism, with the WWII?

Besides the fact that hystorical weather patterns probally are not much benifit to the terrests of today.

The issue is the freedom of information act in the US does apply to NASA, but apperently isen't being followed.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Just a thought, not comparing wars.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Guess that they can't make up their minds.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

From the ewh's linked paper "NASA Shows Quiet Sun Means Cooling of Earth's Upper Atmosphere"

"While this warming has no implications for climate change in the troposphere, a fundamental prediction of climate change theory is that the upper atmosphere will cool in response to increasing carbon dioxide."

Well, that's interesting, I wonder if The Powers have seen it?

Merry Christmas and Happy New (warmer? colder?) Year to all

SnTMan

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

i picked up on that too ... there's been so much made for this failed prediction that i wonder if they're talking about two different things.  mind you that won't stop most of them just jumping on the band wagon ...

i'll settle for a new year, whatever the climate does !

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Maybe we should suggest cutting the funding to NASA by 50% because we need the money to build windmill and solar farms.  My guess is that NASA's climate predictions might change.  Why is NASA studing climate change anyways?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

It seems that NASA was busy editing data as well.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/14/foiad-emails-from-hansen-and-giss-staffers-show-disagreement-over-1998-1934-u-s-temperature-ranking/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/14/john-colemans-hourlong-news-special-global-warming-the-other-side-now-online-all-five-parts-here/

I haven't had a chance to watch the videos from John Coleman yet.  From what I have gathered he is a well respected meteorologist in Cali.  I may be understating his credentials, I haven't dug any further than reading these articles and looking at a few of the emails.  

So much for having a good historical record to fall back on.  

One of the biggest rebuttals that I keep hearing is from warmists is, "surely NASA isn't involved in some massive cover-up to manipulate data...that would take a large amount of coordination and communication."  It does appear that UEA wasn't the only data record holder that was changing their data to support AWG.  Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't this now cover the three holders of the temperature datasets and show that they all manipulated the data?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

geez, we nearly went a month without a post !

i'll watch those vids tonight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

yeah well i have been busy and didn't check Eng-tips at all over the holidays and work has been crazy for the past 2 weeks.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Some insightful stuff when you follow the links to here:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/gistemp-a-human-view/
It really does make you wonder.
If this was work attempted to be presented by an undergraduate, they be slung out.
The migration of temperature stations to warmer climates is interesting, plus the "deletion" of weather stations in the north ("deletion": I didn't understand if this was just data that was excluded from the data sets or whether thes stations had actually dissappeared).

This really has been a major scam.
The thing is, the "don't confuse weather with climate " cries that now erupt from warmists (who were themselves keen to seize on every individual event and claim it a result of warming)  is slightly set back when the UK/s met office uses the same computer and programs for both Climate change and weather.
So I'm led to believe.

I just heard the MET office on the radio defending itself (rather than their chairman's 25% pay rise).
An obviously under pressure spokesperson said "I can't guarantee what weather you'll get in your garden."

Ironically, the collapse in belief in AGW, the sudden airing of "denier" perspective in the mainstream media and TV shows such as the one linked above, probably owes as mch to the current cold weather as to the science. One has to presume that a significant proportion of AGW believers only ever believed it because Gore told them, they liked the movie, they believed the "consensus" stories and they trusted the scientists and the journalists, not because they read or understood the science. Well, fair does. All the while the warmers camp were prepared to accept support on that basis, so now they discover it is a two edged sword and science or not, it is a long cold snap with 1200 or more records broken in the USA that may have overnight washed out that support. That, I suggest, is why the MSM may be starting to open up a bit.

 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Thanks NomLaser for those links. I have doubted the temperature record for some time but I had no idea it was so bad. I know its complicated, but I would be interested to see if the "6000" TIs and their "average" readings for say 1985, could be reduced so that the 1500 or so remaining match locations of the currently remaining TIs. So now we could compare the average of the 6000 to the average of the 1500 for say 1985. If the 1500 average is significantly hotter than the 6000 average that would suggest that cold TIs had been removed from the sample. I would prefer that this be done with raw data, even if a few TIs have been moved across the street or their shields have fallen off.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

owg

I believe that has already been done and was shown that the colder stations were removed.  I could be wrong but that's what I have gathered so far as to the big stink of it has been.  I plan on catching up on some reading this weekend and plan to dig into everything surrounding this new info.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

ewh.  that's episode 4 of 4 of the videos that i posted a link to.  KUSI is the station that John Coleman is a meteorologist at and hosted the 1-hr program.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

back to jmw's comment ...
"Ironically, the collapse in belief in AGW, the sudden airing of "denier" perspective in the mainstream media and TV shows such as the one linked above, probably owes as mch to the current cold weather as to the science."

i think the economy has alot to do with it too ... you want us to spend what ?, i need to put bread on the table. also maybe i can save some money being more conscious of what i'm spending on fuel?  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

When the EPA came out and declared a natural occurring gas (and plant food) a hazard and pollutant, that should have threw up several flags then.  No one really seemed to notice though.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Just because the EPA declared something a hazard does not necessarily make it so.  I laughed at that one too.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

The EPA in the past declaired several chemicals as bad for the enviroment, or a possible carcengion. Will those be investigated again?

What about freon, PCB's, and DDT? Where the past clames realistic?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

You're right, NomLaser... same videos.  I had tried to post a link listing all four episodes, but you did beat me to it.

"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - Robert Hunter
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Quote:

eliebl (Mechanical)      
17 Jan 10 11:36
Just because the EPA declared something a hazard does not necessarily make it so.  I laughed at that one too.

Maybe not but it does give them the ability to regulate it without Congress approval (or buy-in from constituents).

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Hi NomLaser,

Do you know which natural occurring gas and plant food were declared hazards by the EPA?

The reason I ask is because labeling something "natural occurring" does not make it safe. For instance, lead, mercury and cadmium are natural occurring. Furthermore, even something as benign as salt can cause damage in high concentrations. Another example is high concentrations of phosphate in lakes that cause eutrophication.

http://toxics.usgs.gov/definitions/eutrophication.html

Cheers,

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Carbon Dioxide and that is my final answer Regis :D

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?


Actually, the EPA "identified six greenhouse gases that pose a potential threat".

Furthermore, what you wrote is misleading since the EPA did not say that CO2 is in itself a hazard, but rather the effects of CO2 and other greenhouse gases on the earth's climate make them a threat to public health/welfare.

"Additional impacts of climate change include, but are not limited to:

    * increased drought;
    * more heavy downpours and flooding;
    * more frequent and intense heat waves and wildfires;
    * greater sea level rise;
    * more intense storms; and
    * harm to water resources, agriculture, wildlife and ecosystems."

Here is the full link:

http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/0ef7df675805295d8525759b00566924!OpenDocument

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Thanks joseph for clarification.  I still don't see where they are saying that it's the effects rather than the gas itself that are the issue and what they want to control.  They state that the 6 gasses contribute to pollution, even though CO2 isn't a pollutant.  Still I would rather not argue semantics over the legal verbiage that they put out rather that they listed CO2 as a pollutant.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

josephv - Thanks for your helpful posts. I would like to clarify the use of the term "naturally occurring" elements. Here is my understanding of the term. Elements are usually classified as naturally occurring to distinguish them from some man-made radioactive elements. This is unfortunate since many of these elements don't show up in their elemental form in the earth's crust, oceans or atmosphere. Of the three you chose, elemental lead does occur rarely but more often as the ore galena. Elemental mercury also occurs rarely, but more commonly as methylmercury. As far as I can tell elemental cadmium does not occur in nature, it is usually found in small amounts in zinc sulfide. Picky, picky, picky.

I agree with your point that classifying stuff as "naturally occurring" or "natural occurring" does not do much for us.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I can just see it now, the EPA trying to prove in cort that CO2 is a hazard and should be regulated. This will take years, and cost millions (tax and industry dollars).

Can we get a union exemption on that?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

If the Supreme Court only ruled "...that the agency has the authority to regulate heat-trapping gases in automobile emissions" then someone still has to prove that carbon dioxide is a heat-trapping gas. However I suppose there is something in the ruling that defines carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas or a heat-trapping gas.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Helps if I read the entire article.  I missed the section stating:

Quote:

Writing for the majority, Justice John Paul Stevens said the only way the agency could "avoid taking further action" now is "if it determines that greenhouse gases do not contribute to climate change" or provides a good explanation why it cannot or will not find out whether they do.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

So what if it is a heat traping gas, the law suits whould also be about the levels set, and what determined those levels. Also law suites about organic, and fossel sources.

Also law suits about exemptions, and forgen imports.

It comes down to a new import tax, and tax on business.  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
That there is a [problem of major proportions.
The original story revolved round a "campaign" document.
What business do scientists have putting out "campaign reorts" and trying to influence policy decsions?

Policy is made by polic makers, usually governments. The politicos are not scientists so they need scientists to provide factual, language neutral reliable accurate and dependable reports from scientists.
When in the position of "government scientists" the scientist has an absolute duty to be neutral, honest and objective in his reports. It is essential that the politicians and the public can trust the scientists.

There is a very serious risk to the integrity of any scientist when they propagandise in their own speciality and what can and should then suffer is their own credibility.
Outside their speciality and outside any official role position they can say and do what they like except that they should always be jealous of their reputation as scientists.

I have been very disturbed by some of the "peer reviewed" scientific reports" which I have seen that have been written like Greenpeace campaign documents. I trust them and the scientists who wrote them not one little bit.
 
 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

That's the problem with climate science.  If there were one or two scientists falsifying data and writing policy then they would have been outed and blacklisted from publishing anything from a very early stage.  Climate Science is full of high ranking people that forgot what science should be about and started following the money.  It is clear when you can find data manipulation in all of the long-term datasets; from NASA, CRU, GISS, NOAA...etc.  Soon everyone will jump ship and wonder how it became the mess that it did.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

So if this falls apart, how long will we still have tax incentives for wind and solar power?

Not that renewable power is bad, but verable power should have limits. Maybe something like a maximum allowed 15% verable power, to make the developers pay for the cost of leveling out the power generaed.

However, solar somewhat follows the load shape, and small hydro maybe seasonal.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I still feel that we should try to move away from oil whenever possible.  I don't see us moving completely away from it unless we invest in more nuclear plants, similar to what France has done.  As for vehicles, the technology will drive where this goes; hydrogen, plug-in electric, ethanol hybrid...something will come out on top and we will eventually move to it.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

cranky108 and nNomLaser have summarized the situation well. There is no harm in making the oil last longer, especially the domestic (North American) oil. However money spent on carbon capture and storage may be wasted since this technology increases our energy consumption. If applied in the oil sands it will increase energy consumption, likely oil or gas.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

owg, not exactly. In the electric business, coal is king, and we have lots of it.
The problem is simple, the conversion of coal to electricty, involves making steam. The process delay from throwing the coal in the boiler, to the output of electricity, is very long in respect. The speed of generation ups and downs for wind is very quick, in relitive terms.
So to solve this we use natural gas for faster responce to the changing wind (or lack there of). This gas costs more in terms of energy output.
So the whole wind power movement, which is asking for twice the asking price of coal, actually costs more even when it isen't producing.
So beside the subsidies, it also costs more. And to the customers we are the bad guys, 1. for not buying more wind. 2. for higher energy rates.

Nucular has a simular lead time as coal, actually longer, from heat produced to energy output. So it also dosen't wotk well with wind, and it costs more than coal energy wise.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Thanks cranky108 for the information on generator responses to load changes. I guess when the wind drops we will hear the gas lines singing. I was really just thinking of oil when I wrote that bit.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Cranky108

Quote:

So if this falls apart, how long will we still have tax incentives for wind and solar power?
Ah, now there's the n-trillion dollar question!

The problem for many environmentalists with Copenhagen and Hansen (or was it Mann?) saying Copenhagen should fail, is that whoever started this wagon rolling have found they are no longer in the drivers seat.
Climate change has become less about saving the planet than about amassing huge personal and corporate fortunes.
The danger is that whether AGW stays or goes, the money making will have assumed a life of its own.

Once these guys have their snouts in the trough, don't anyone try to come between them and the moolah.
The initial position is to deny everything and maintain that AGW is real.
Somewhere along the line, some goats will be chosen and sacrificed, e.g. Phil Jones - I think his day is done, possibly a few others.
At some point maybe a few more heads will roll. Maybe Al gore will, in public, be sacrificed (but "don't you go worrying, Al, we look after our own. Jest set tight for a while and we all gonna see you right).
But the grey men in the background, content for a few luminaries to hog the limelight, will be too deep to winkle out and they'l keep making money long after the event - like ageing pop stars collecting royalties in their dotage.

I guess we'll be lucky if we can trim some of the more grotesque schemes back a bit but this sort of thing will be hard to eradicate. Look at the bankers, the newsprint is hardly dry and they're back collecting huge bonuses and the RBS guy not only collected his pension, he has a new place back a the trough.

In the end, it may not matter whether AGW is true or false, we screwed whatever. It's just how badly screwed that is in question.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

ong, As much as I don't like admiting it, T Bone is right that natural gas is one of the few fuels that can displace oil for transportation.
Admit it wood and coal just require much more inflexable engines (or equivlents).
So for transportation fuels (less ships, and some trains), we need liquid or gas fuels. But if we are using then for electricity generation they are less available for transportation.

In general we can crack oil into smaller chained liquids, but how easy is it to lengthen natural gas to longer chains?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Assuming natural gas is mostly methane, I don't know of any current industrial processes that can make methane into gasoline. There is research on polymerizing methane but it is not directed towards gasoline. Poly gasoline was made from joining propylene and butylene but it was not very good stuff. Alkylate is a very good gasoline component but comes from propylene, butylene, and isobutane, all a long way from methane. Methane is good for making hydrogen, guess what the byproduct is, starts with C and ends with a small 2.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
LPG is used in Europe quite a bit compared to the UK. SOme cars can be dual fuelled but not in some countries, as I recall.
The problem for the UK has been fear of the government.
If you promote a fuel as being clean and efficient and cheap, people may sit up and take notice and invest in using that fuel but the fear has been that as soon as it starts to displace petrol, Bang! up go the taxes and sudenly it loses its advantage.
It is notable that in most of Europe diesel is cheaper than petrol so that and the better mileage makes diesel car sales pretty respectable, especially with modern diesels.
But in the UK diesel cost more per gallon than petrol. Less advantage, fewer sales.

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Compressed natural gas (mostly methane) is a reasonable fuel for road vehicles, especially trucks. The biggest problem is the fuel filling and handling side, once it is in the vehicle it is fine.

Liquid petroleum gas (propane/butane) is a terrific fuel for cars. With the right (slightly expensive) engine technology you get more power, Euro IV or V emissions, and the same range, just about, from the same size tank, as from the gasoline car. If you use a more traditional setup you lose some of those advantages but it doesn't cost as much.

I don't know about cold weather performance for either system.

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Why would expect cold weather proformance problems with LNG or Compressed natural gas? It's not like someone is going to add water or ethonol to it.

While on the subject, does anyone know how easy it is to convert an IC engine from LNG, to compressed natural gas, to hydrogen? I am just interested to know how interchangable the fuels are, given a flexable fuel tank.

And is it possible to compress syngas, from coal or wood?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Part of the story of the temperature record is that of the disappearing temperature stations.

They haven't actually gone, they've just been excluded from  the data base.

Russia recently complained that only about 25% of its stations were in the UEA data (you know who I mean).
The station data that is missing seems to be largely from higher latitudes and higher altitudes. What is left appears to be missing lots of data also.
In California there are only 3 or 4 stations still included and all are low altitude and near the beach.

A useful animation of the temperature stations from 1958 to 1999 is found here:
http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/Ghcn2_images/air_loc.mpg
Facinating stuff .... I won't spoil the ending for you, go take a look for yourselves.
The 110 page report on temperature is here:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/surface_temp.pdf
Which is damning reading
  

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Want to know what the big deal is with surface station data?  Check out http://www.surfacestations.org/ They have been investigating the surface stations.  

Quote:

What you'll find here

    * Site surveys of USHCN, GHCN, CWO, and other weather station networks
    * Photographic views and sketches of instrumental sitings
    * Historical notes on each station when available
    * Survey notes about nearby objects, surfaces, and sensor placement
    * Supplemental notes and photographs when applicable

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"Why would expect cold weather proformance problems with LNG or Compressed natural gas? It's not like someone is going to add water or ethonol to it."

Cranky, the problem is more typically with the expansion cooling of the gas causing freezing of moisture in the air, e.g. icing in the venturi of a carburetor.  I think fuel injection (d/s of a throttle body) of gases tends to have fewer issues, and ported injection fewer yet (i.e. give as little time and space for ice crystals to plate out on the intake manifold as possible).  There are systems engineered to use some regenerative heating from the cooling system to avoid icing, but those only work once the engine has warmed up.

The other questions will, I expect, get the thorough answer from Greg, but the fast answer is "very little" - getting a gas regulator/injector system working is the big leap for conversion, and other fuel gasses then become minor tweaks.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Sadly I don't know. LPG and hydrogen are both burned in spark ignition engines. There is NO similarity between a hydrogen fuel tank and anything else, you are talking about a miniature cryogenic facility.

CNG tends to be used in diesel engines, I know not why.

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
During the war civilian vehicles in the UK were fitted with gas bags so they could burn gas. These were simply inflatable bags, so the gas was not compressed.

On the continent they used wood gas and some cars had gas generators fitted.
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/01/wood-gas-cars.html
I thought the UK might have used coal gas but don't have a reference so maybe the UK also used wood gas.

 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

jmw, interesting. If you notice the gas makeup this mixture could be mixed from natural gas, and air as an altertinitive motor fuel.

Fill you car up at home from the narural gas tap. The problem is how would they tax you.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

they would find a way.  they could force you to install a separate meter just for car service.  ofc you could bypass that but how many people would be willing to tamper with their NG supply.  i sure wouldn't and would hire it out just for the piece of mind that i wouldn't blow my own house up.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
Gas bottles -  fork lift trucks often use them.
Question: how special are fork lift truck engines?
 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Interesting you said fork lift trucks, because I believe they have replacable bottles. And if some shop guy can replace them, then maybe a simular scheme can be used for cars.
Or you can trade them in at Home Depo.

However with the small size bottle, I don't think you can go far. Maybe as far as an electric car.

And why can someone compress wood gas and bottle it? Although I would think the bottle would need to be quite large (like maybe a trailer size).

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

a lot of cabs in toronto (and elsewhee i expect) use propane; not sure why cabs, or why propane (maybe 'cause it's still subsidised).  you can clearly see a modified gas tank, possibly fuel lines as well, possibly ECC too ... wonder what it does to their emissions (catalytic convertor) ??

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
We use them in the UK for heating - butane.
http://www.lpg-portable-heaters.co.uk/heater-gas.htm
I'd think a couple of these should take you a fair distance.
If you run out, just nick one from someone's caravan or boat.
They have a regulator and a simple bayonet connection.
It is idiot proof.  

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

"Question: how special are fork lift truck engines?"

Not very.  Ours have a simple gas regulator feeding what looks like a plain old carbuertor.

"wonder what it does to their emissions (catalytic convertor) "

Very little, propane is a very clean fuel.  Natural gas can have a fair bit of sulfur, but I think it's also fairly easy to scrub it clean.  You'd want fuel injection for better control on a 3-way catalyst.  But, then, I helped design and build machines for indoor running that used a 3-way cat, a regulator, and a valve to pulse engine intake vacuum to the reference port on the regulator to adjust fuel mixture.  Worked very well, emissions were within the CARB standards (the first ones for small engines) 3 years before the standards came into effect.  This was on a little Briggs & Stratton 4-cycle motor.

Funny thing was, the "indoor running" requirement led the boss to demand a catalytic converter (to reduce CO emissions and make it "safe").  But there is no way to eliminate CO2 emissions, and run long enough in enclosed spaces (office buildings) that have little outdoor air exchange, and you can make people have all kinds of funny symptoms.  I made no friends pointing that out, as I arrived late on the project, after a lot of money and time had been spent.   

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

No-one likes a "johnny-come-lately smart-a$$" ...
and being right only makes it worse !

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

There is no reason why a propane engine could not meet emissions, although HC from the tank end of things looks a bit tricky.

The LPG OEM cars we sell easily meet Euro IV and will need no more work then the gasoline engines to get them to Euro V.


 

Cheers

Greg Locock

I rarely exceed 1.79 x 10^12 furlongs per fortnight

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

An Ontario TV station known as TVO has just run a about 4 hours of discussion on Climate Change. There was a very good discussion on how credible is the science. Here is the link to the first of the four. http://www.tvo.org/cfmx/tvoorg/theagenda/index.cfm?page_id=7&bpn=779732&amp;ts=2010-03-09%2020:00:00.0 . There is also a more recent hour on Climate Modeling at http://www.tvo.org/cfmx/tvoorg/theagenda/index.cfm?page_id=7&bpn=779742&amp;ts=2010-03-24%2020:00:00.0   

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

You like how our leader spent earth day? Buring nearly 9,000 gallons of jet fuel.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

yeah, but "someone" arranged for a volcano to ground flights for days, so we're still on the + side ...  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

How did you dispose of your earth day tree?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Recycling centers won't take them.  Have to take them to the incinerator.  Or just invite some friends over for a bon-fire.  Just to be sure to use gasoline or used motor oil to ignite the tree since it hasn't fully dried.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

We made ours out of old tires, with some PVC for the "leaves".  Flame on!

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Along the same line, how do you dispose of non-working solar panels?
I guess I need someone to rip them from my roof first.

Will the trend soon be that land fills will be full of used solar panels, wind generators, and electric car batteries?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Why don't you fix them? Unless you live in space or the middle of a nuclear reactor the rate of degradation of the semiconductor should be geological.

SO it's just a soldering problem.

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies  http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Where did I say they were silicon? You are assuming the electrical means silicon.

They were to heat water, and part of the house. But they leaked.

Besides we all know silicon systems have a much longer payback.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
you do have to question the impartiality of the advice being larded out by "advisors" when this sort of news comes up:
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/more-global-warming-profiteering-by-obama-energy-official/
This sort of involvement isn't good in any walk of life. In the UK Politicians have to declare their interests.
I guess it ought also to extend to advisers.
We can't pretend that politicians are subject to bias where they have a financial interest and that advisers are not susceptible.
This is just the sort of news that should make you want to question what these people are saying a little bit more closely and discover what financial interests some of the others may have that are promoting climate change.
 

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

(OP)
PS it seems the US has the same problem as the UK, the appointment of unelected people to key government positions.
If dog catcher is an elected positions or police chief, then surely some of these senior government positions ought to be too. This isn't simply an advisory position is it?

JMW
www.ViscoAnalyser.com

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Cazr's are not elected or confirmed, or mentioned in the constitution. While other positions, which are presently unfilled, must be confirmed.

And you are right the appointment of unelected, or unconfirmed people is a problem.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

What ever happened to the 55 MPH speed limit to reduce fuel consumption. It sort of fell apart, because voters over time became angry.

It still saves fuel, but no one is proposing it's resurgence to reduce oil imports. Why?

 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Actually it doesn't necessarily save fuel. Optimum cruising speed for some cars is over 60 mph. Incidentally this is why lowering speed limits in towns should not be justified by a sanctimonious nod in the direction of fuel economy.

When you factor in cost of time there is no doubt that you are making the economics of driving significantly more expensive if you have a 55 limit rather than a 70. You can see this in the UK where fuel is more epxenive - very few people limit their speed to save fuel.




 

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies  http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

I agree with Greg on the optimum speed on vehicles.  My car gets about 10% higher mileage at 75mph vs 60mph.  Though some of that could be the all of the stops that I have to compare it to.  At the same time you aren't always cruising at 75mph, you have those times where slower vehicles get in front of you then you have to speed back up.

Did you guys see the preview of Kerry-Lieberman climate change bill?  Looks like the tax payers will be footing the bill, yet again.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/11/preview-of-kerry-liberman-climate-bill/

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Thinking about the half life thing, perhaps the original intended meaning was that the feedback circuit, in response to an increase in atmospheric CO2, takes an average 100 years to expand to account for the extra CO2.

Since the  most obvious forms of long term carbon capture over that timeframe are vegetation and trees that still doesn't make much sense to me, as both of those respond to extra CO2 in their own lifetimes.

I imagine the feedback loop would degrade at the same rate if the CO2 level drops, in which case our descendants will have to ramp up the coal burning if they are not to starve.




 

Cheers

Greg Locock


New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies  http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Greg

It shouldn't surprise you that those are based off of computer models, which we all know are no where near accurate.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Here's one from this side of the pond...
http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html

"Good to know you got shoes to wear when you find the floor." - Robert Hunter
 

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

With the recent oil spill, should we consider that climate change may be caused by our own political desires?

After all, the limits on drilling on Federal land, has pushed us to look for oil in difficult locations.

Personally I believe one answer to reduce the import of oil is to convert all building heating to using natural or other gas for heat.

And I say other gas because like flex fuel cars, I believe most heaters can be made to allow a much wider range of gas fuels.  

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

the law of unintended consequences bites us once again ...

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

What's going to happen when a barge of bio-diesel spills or runs aground?  If you are really worried about environmental impact, you would realize that bio-fuels, windmills and other 'clean' energy all impact the environment more than oil.  

As rb stated "the law of unintended consequences bites us once again..."  There are risks with anything and it has to be weighed whether those risks are worth it.  So far oil production has been, even with a few spills.  Anyone care to guess how much oil naturally seeps into the oceans?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

True but it still ends up on land but you don't hear people screaming about it.  

Cranky's suggestion of making all building heat run off of natural gas isn't going to make much of a difference.  You still have to drill for NG and I'm not sure how many buildings still run off of heating oil but I would guess that it's pretty low.

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Some have previously suggested reserving most fluid fossil fuels for vehicle applications and use solid fossil fuels or alternatives for most static power generation applications.  Ground vehicles at least can be made to run tolerably well on various types of compressed or liquefied NG or NG products.

Now I'm not sure they were thinking of stand by generators or building heating where using NG may still have some merit.

Still, seems like a reasonable idea to me.

Posting guidelines FAQ731-376: Eng-Tips.com Forum Policies http://eng-tips.com/market.cfm? (probably not aimed specifically at you)
What is Engineering anyway: FAQ1088-1484: In layman terms, what is "engineering"?

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Kenat - yes the seepage is thought to be spread around the world, some undersea.

HAZOP at www.curryhydrocarbons.ca

RE: Educated Opinions on Climate change - a denouement or a hoax?

Does anyone have information on mixing wood chips with coal for power production?

They are proposing it here, although they are planning to use a different method than they did a few years ago.
I believe they want to replace the coal in one burner with saw dust, versis the throwing the wood chips in with the lump coal.

It diden't work before because the wood chips stuck to the balls in the ball mill. Plugged it up good.

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