I think the answer that your looking for is that the distribution of most probable max wave height is one of the extreme value EV (fisher-tippet distributions). The gumbel distribution is one of them and a good place to start since its easy to manipulate mathematically. Basically, you use the data you have to estiamte the EV distribution parameters and then recalculate the value you looking for.
I dont recall seeing the relevant model in Newman and would suggest you take a look at one of ship or offshore engineering texts like Hughes, O. 'Ship Structural Design' or the Book by PateL, M. and Witz, J. (cant recall the name of the latter)