The mostly widely used calculation method for arc-flash hazards is IEEE 1584. In the original 2002 version, results for ungrounded systems are 10% to 15% higher than for grounded systems. These results always seemed odd because all of the calculations in IEEE 1584 are based on three-phase faults. But this difference was built into the method. Fast forward to the new version (IEEE 1584-2018) released late in 2018. Based on vastly greater test data and a careful analysis of the old test data, it was determined that there really is no significant difference between grounded and ungrounded systems, so this distinction no longer exists in the new version of the standard.
So... if 1584-2002 method is used, results for high-resistance grounded systems (treated as ungrounded per the standard) are indeed higher than grounded systems. But if the new IEEE 1584-2018 is used, there will be no difference.
Also - most faults (70% to 80%) at least start as ground faults. They often escalate to three-phase faults in solidly-grounded systems. In a HRG system, there is no possibility of a ground fault escalating to anything else. There isn't enough energy. So HRG does not change the calculated incident energy, since it is based on 3-phase faults. However it greatly reduces the risk of arcing faults occurring in the first place.
Cheers,
Dave