You should care about overpaying by $200 grand now because buying a business is an economic decision.
Doubling your money is 20 years is only a 3% return. This is slightly over inflation rates for the last few years.
If you are comfortable with that amount then there are a lot of much less risky investments that you can make that will return that rate or more.
Stock market indexes typically pay at least twice that over the long term. As I understand it, US tax free municipal bonds will pay about that amount with no tax issues and a guaranteed return and protection of the principle amount.
The gain would be a capital gain and you would have to take into account the tax treatment of this as it varies depending on country. Your after tax return could easily be negative after adjusting for inflation.
Many small clients lessen the risk by lessening the dependency on any one large client. Just make sure that they are not all in one industry or you can lose them all when that industry enters a downturn.
Or even in various industries that support one industry. An example of this would be in say Seattle where the economy is highly dependant on Boeing Aircraft. Your client base could consist of residential developers, commercial developers and other local industry that all support Boeing. If the international jet aircraft market enters a slump then so does all these other businesses.
Sometimes this is hard to avoid since where I live most of the economic activity is generated by agriculture. If the farmers have a couple bad years then so does all other local businesses. Try for a client base that is immune to this or at least as diversified as possible. Look for clients that might actually do better in an economic slump. Repair places usually do better when the economy goes south since people and businesses are repairing rather than replacing.
There is nothing wrong with seasonal fluctuations as long as you can adjust your expenses to meet these fluctuations, where I live construction is still a seasonal undertaking especially civil works in horizontal construction. Summer students and seasonable work force allow businesses to adjust to this variation in income by reducing expenses during the off season.
Nothing wrong with internal debt as well, as long as there is sufficient cash flow to cover it. If you are buying into the company (as opposed to buying out another shareholder) the proceeds from your purchase could be used to pay down this debt or expand the firm.
You have to look at all the factors and not consider any one in isolation from the others. In any economic decision you have to consider other opportunities for the money.
Locally a lot of farmers have upwards of a few million invested and are only making a bare living. If they sold out and put the money into other investments they could easily triple or more their net income. They are paying heavily for the lifestyle.
Only accept a lower return financially if the other benefits of ownership (pride, self satisfaction, lifestyle etc) are worth the lost opportunity. That is an issue that only you can answer.
Rick Kitson MBA P.Eng
Construction Project Management
From conception to completion