"Where do you see the emerging gearboxes like DSG, AMT, CVT, conventional Manual and Auto in the next five years for passenger cars."
If this isn't the multi billion dollar/euro question that everyone in the industry wants to know. But, in short simple descriptions...
DSG, everyone wants one, but nobody wants to pay what they cost to make.
AMT, most high volume systems are slow shifting, but they are improving, they won't grow that quickly over the next 5 years
CVT, complex, expensive, usually very torque limited, they also fell short of their predicted efficencies. With any luck, these will dissapear
conventional Manual, not much new tech here.
slushbox Autos, there will be some drastic advancements here. 6 speed is almost the min gears these days, and Lexus started production with a 7sp. Who is to know where the limit is? The fuel econ will never match a standard manual.
Hybrids, you forgot this "little"
"Who will be leading the market and why?"
How do you define market leader?
General Motors powertrain, there are approx 3-4 million of their transmissions being produced a year, and who knows how many 4L60s are out in the customer's hands. They know how to make them cheap and how to make them by the 100s. But their transmissions haven't exactly been the technology leader.
outside of the OEMs internal powertrain groups, you have ZF, Aisin, and Jatco all fighting for outsourced products. When an OEM finally decides to outsource a high value componet, like a transmission, it can get ugly. This is big business.
"What are the factors that are controlling this?"
Costs, mass, packaging, consumer preferences!, federal regulations, durability, performance (eff, shift time, shift smoothness), etc.
"Does anyone know which one is more effecient or will be effecient?" "Any ideas which is more cheaper and effecient?"
Standard Manual for both.
"Is there any factor of market and location?"
This could be another quite long question to answer. The short answer, yes location plays a factor in the market.
More in detail, Americans don't like to shift. Europeans like things complex, efficient, and working perfectly. Japan is trying to outcomplicate the Europeans, and they are getting good at it. Korea's powertrains will become bulletproof after receiving mountains of product durability feedback from their 100k mile warrantys. Everyone wants to know about China, i do also. UK and Australia still shift manuals with the left hand. Antartica still has a very small automotive market... but with global warming, who knows?
These views do not reflect the views of management.
To summarize, find a library that has back copys of Automotive Engineering, find a big cup of coffee, and go do some research.
