Things are Starting to Warm Up Part II 24

[dik]

For earlier thread, see

thread1618-496010

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[Guest102023]

You beat me to it dik.
Just one small data point.
I wouldn’t worry too much.

"If you don't have time to do the job right the first time, when are you going to find time to repair it?"

 

[TugboatEng]

Avoidable? That doesn't make any sense.

 

[stevenal]

Not just semantics. I've got a persistent hangnail on my right foot that I'll probably die with, and not from.
It's been a popular sport to try and second guess the authorities on what exactly the causes of death are. Link

If one dies from hypoxia, due to suffocation, due to pneumonia, due to covid; some would say to put this in one of the three categories that are not covid.

 

[dik]

It sure does... based on per Million population... China's total death rate is 4, India is 373, New Zealand 348, and the US is 3169... a whopping difference, and yes, most deaths, taking proper care, were avoidable. Considering the better medical care available they should have been down at the bottom, but no so.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[dik]

steve... you can manipulate the numbers a little bit... but, not that much. Good luck with your hangnail, fortunately they are not often fatal.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

Steve, interesting that your link says Influenza accounted for 48% of COVID deaths. How is that possible?

 

[RVAmeche]

I know some of you will rabidly disagree with "data" but these are facts. The only cherrypicking is happening by people claiming "this is all normal".

 

[LionelHutz]

Citing a China death rate number as fact in an argument.

I know of someone run over by a car while riding a bicycle whos cause of death was covid and another who just died and the doctor wanted to put covid on the death certificate but the family refused to allow it. Around here they got paid extra for every covid case.

That enough talk of Covid in a climate change forum.

The issue is that to stop burning FFs will impose an unacceptable cost on our civilisation (my money is still on civil unrest will be the ultimate downfall of our civilisation, and will usher in a new dark age, but hopefully not in the next 30 years) and may not fix the problem either. We can't even agree on relatively modest (but still painful) measures like a moratorium on mining and burning coal. But we can have trading schemes (or scams) such that some people get rich and the expense of others with no real change to anything and we keep playing the game.

Yes, everyone cries about how we have to end CO2 emissions, but very little is spoken about how difficult and imposing it will be to actually stop. Not just posture about doing good, but actually stopping. Fossil fuel usage is an incredible amount of energy that wind and solar don't have a hope in hell of replacing. TBE is correct, we'll only get there if we figure out how to conserve or massively cut our energy usage.

 

[dik]

Lionel... I concur about China's numbers, but they're the only published data I could find... they could be open to interpretation... the US number is still 10x as high as India or New Zealand which I have more confidence in... to reiterate there is a whopping unnecessary loss of lives.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[GregLocock]

RVAMeche

Nicely cherry picked data. The mass media will be proud of you.

Here's a longer term picture of real data from the UK Met Office, showing that recent rates of change are not unusual, at least in the UK

https://res.cloudinary.com/engineering-com/image/upload/v1658183102/tips/ts_meantemp_cet_gupxh5.png

and here's a reconstruction of temperatures since the last ice age from NASA , unfortunately it doesn't use the same proxies throughout leading to the usual cut and paste error. We are a tiny bit warmer than 7000 years ago.

https://twitter.com/nasaclimate/status/1275559981794725888

Cheers

Greg Locock


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[dik]

...and a whole bunch warmer than 22,000 years back... with no sign of it diminishing, it would seem. That to me is the scary part. As they say, Chicken Little only has to be right,
once.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[WARose]

My thoughts on this topic are (somewhat) complicated. Verbally, I get attacked by both sides before they hear me out. (But this being written out....maybe I'll get a fair hearing) Up front I'll tell you: we are likely changing the environment.....and doing something about that should be near a top priority for every government. And I think nuke is going to have to be a big part of the solution too. (Something even James Hansen is on board with.)

That being said.....I kind of wince at the proof that gets thrown out there. To say we are having these all time records.....when we don't have a lot of temperature data prior to just a few hundred years ago isn't good. At lets not pull any punches here: the wrong predictions of some people on my side of the aisle undermines our credibility. I remember back in the 80's/90's (for example) there was this magazine cover that showed NYC under water by this point due to global warming. (Remember the movie The Day After Tomorrow?) In more recent years I remember some guy on Bill Maher's show talking about "where will we get another Iowa?" [when the mid-west is 150^oF at some point in the future; the numerous problems with that statement being quite obvious].)

So yeah, I think it's enough to say we should be addressing this.....but I would put it quite simply: if one-side is wrong, so what? We get a cleaner environment with (possibly) cheaper sources of energy. If the other side is wrong....we got problems.

Anyway....my 2 cents.

 

[dik]

I concur with you WARose... and add a couple of items. There can be huge geopolitical changes brought about by starvation, caused by drought, and lack of land, and I have no idea of where this goes... even so far as if a country has water and arable land and the neighbour doesn't... It could get very interesting.

It's not just a matter of finding alternate sources, it's a matter of cutting back. That includes transportation, vacation travel, development of high speed trains, building things with a lifetime (no more disposable fridges, etc.) and huge social changes. I don't know if we're up to it or if this can be done in time.

Covid gave the world and excellent opportunity to work as a 'united world'... see how far that got.

Off my apple box...

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[IRstuff]

WARose, thanks for that breath of realism. I definitely agree with your last points; the probable outcome is indeed grim, and there's really no upside to pretending there's no "there" there.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[TugboatEng]

If Wolfram Vogelsberger from my previous link is correct and our warming can be attributed directly to heating from energy consumption then nuclear/solar/wind/hydro will not be an improvement.

 

[IRstuff]

Vogelsberger is incorrect; if the enthalpy today can cause the temperature rise, then the temperature shouldn't have risen anywhere near as much as it has.

https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020/final-consumption

TTFN (ta ta for now)
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[dik]

IRS... if you look at the OECD data on a per capita basis you get a lot more appreciation for the 'mess' we are in.

So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates

-Dik

 

[TugboatEng]

That's exactly what he says, though. The energy consumption should have raised our temperature by 1°C at this point in time and that's about what we have observed. Greenhouse gasses may also be a factor but chasing them down may make the situation worse as they aren't a primary contributor.

 

[IRstuff]

That's exactly what he says, though. The energy consumption should have raised our temperature by 1°C at this point in time and that's about what we have observed. Greenhouse gasses may also be a factor but chasing them down may make the situation worse as they aren't a primary contributor.

Vogelsberger is basically assuming, then, that every climate scientist is incorrect and incompetent, and ignoring the energy balance equation, and only he is smart enough to do it correctly. And if his calculation is that this is where we're supposed to be based on enthaply, then he's still wrong, because most models had underestimated the amount of heat sunk by the oceans, so the only reason we're only +1°C is because the oceans sucked up way more heat that previously assumed possible, so the amount of heat that's out of balance is much more than what the temperature anomaly indicates.

TTFN (ta ta for now)
I can do absolutely anything. I'm an expert!

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[Tomfh]

I know some of you will rabidly disagree with "data" but these are facts. The only cherrypicking is happening by people claiming "this is all normal".

That bell curve is one thing, but we're constantly told that climate change increases the amount of extremes at both end, hot AND COLD. This is the reason given for snow storms, cold winters, heavy rains, etc. It ALL the result of climate change.

Yet the bell curve indicates a simple reduction in the amount of cold. So which is it? Is it getting hotter with a corresponding reduction in cold? Or is there are gain at both ends, with more hot AND more cold?