dik said:
The CO2 acts as an insulation layer that prevents it from leaving the earth's surface.
As I understand it, it's related to heat radiation. Where the heat radiating off the surface hits the CO2 which then reflects SOME of the heat back towards earth as opposed to all of it radiating out into space. I supposed that's pretty close to what you said. I just though your statement came a little too close to "greenhouse effect" which was always a false term, because nothing is confined as it is in a greenhouse.
Tug, what you're getting wrong is that these climate modelers are not all idiots and I assure you they do understand these concepts pretty well. Where they fail is that the tend to look at CO2 as the only variable that changes (a huge exaggeration, I know). In a climate, atmosphere like ours, EVERY variable is constantly changing. Even the amount of sunlight that is received. My point, is really that it's an impossible task to get these climate models correct enough to be truly predictive. The point, however, is that we have a good idea where we're headed (increased temperatures) and why (excessive atmospheric CO2 due to carbon based fuel emissions).
The alarmist are both correct and wrong at the same time. We should be alarmed. There is a very real chance that there will be very dire consequences from the increased warming. The questions should be what can we do about it? Can we limit it? If so, at what cost? Then we compare that cost to the cost of mitigation measures?
If sea levels are expected to rise, is it more efficient to move people out of low lying regions and build sea walls. Or, is it a more efficient solution to completely change our economy and somewhat dictate to China, India and all other countries that they MUST change their economies as well.
I personally think our "efficient" solution has to be a little of both. Like, make clean energy changes to our economy as much as is possible for us. This means, among other things, teaching our population not to fear nuclear fission power anymore. It also means being willing to assign tariffs to any country's imports that don't take similar actions. Maybe a global "shipping tax" that can be used to encourage more local production of goods and less shipping them half way around the world.
But, it also means being better prepared for extreme weather events.