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The Lemming's Rush to Net Zero 6
- Thread starter GregLocock
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There is a price to pay for net zero (if possible to achieve).
"According to an electricity system simulation and economic analysis conducted by the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE), retail electricity rates in Ontario could more than double, in some scenarios, to achieve net zero for province’s electricity system by 2035.
Specifically, the engineering association’s study found that adding too much intermittent renewable generation to the grid, particularly photovoltaic with battery backup, would spike rates as much as 220 percent in todays dollars.
In contrast, the OSPE simulation predicts that adding nuclear generation, with pumped hydroelectric storage, would increase 2035 retail electricity costs by roughly 20% higher in todays dollars.
In total, OSPE’s analysis explored 10 supply mixes, including hydroelectric, nuclear, wind turbine, PV, storage, and renewable natural gas combustion turbines, matching the existing zero-emission installed capacity in 2021."
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So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
"According to an electricity system simulation and economic analysis conducted by the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE), retail electricity rates in Ontario could more than double, in some scenarios, to achieve net zero for province’s electricity system by 2035.
Specifically, the engineering association’s study found that adding too much intermittent renewable generation to the grid, particularly photovoltaic with battery backup, would spike rates as much as 220 percent in todays dollars.
In contrast, the OSPE simulation predicts that adding nuclear generation, with pumped hydroelectric storage, would increase 2035 retail electricity costs by roughly 20% higher in todays dollars.
In total, OSPE’s analysis explored 10 supply mixes, including hydroelectric, nuclear, wind turbine, PV, storage, and renewable natural gas combustion turbines, matching the existing zero-emission installed capacity in 2021."
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
- Thread starter
- #25
GregLocock
Automotive
Germany has just shut its nuclear reactors down and is now importing record amounts of electricity, largely from Poland (coal) and France (nuclear).
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
- Thread starter
- #27
GregLocock
Automotive
Australia's plan. It is non nuclear. We need to build 30 GW of nat gas, and spend $8T by 2060. Current GDP is $1.5T, so every year for 37 years we need to spend 14% of GDP on the transition. We also need to employ about 5% of the workforce on it.
For context we find it hard to spend 2% of GDP on defence.
Quite how they keep their faces straight I am not sure.
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
For context we find it hard to spend 2% of GDP on defence.
Quite how they keep their faces straight I am not sure.
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
and Oz'll buy/build a bunch of nuke subs, and find and train the 100s of crew required.
Oh, and how does natural gas count as "carbon neutral" (unless it's prized politician "gas") ?
"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
Oh, and how does natural gas count as "carbon neutral" (unless it's prized politician "gas") ?
"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
- Thread starter
- #31
GregLocock
Automotive
UK national grid, Unfortunately it s 224 pages long. Here's the cheery picked version which i will attempt to read
4 scenarios 3 get somewhere close to net zero in 2050. Huge requirement for hydrogen made by steam reforming, and then carbon capture the resulting CO2. This incredibly inefficient approach means that nat gas consumption doesn't fall by much, and a fair bit of the CO2 escapes. CCS has not been shown to work on a long term industrial scale (I think)
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
4 scenarios 3 get somewhere close to net zero in 2050. Huge requirement for hydrogen made by steam reforming, and then carbon capture the resulting CO2. This incredibly inefficient approach means that nat gas consumption doesn't fall by much, and a fair bit of the CO2 escapes. CCS has not been shown to work on a long term industrial scale (I think)
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
btrueblood
Mechanical
I thought it was total CO2, as it talks about land-use and "other" CO2 sources (which I imagine includes iron/steel production and cement production?). It does seem like it's harder to do without nukes.
btrueblood
Mechanical
It does seem ludicrous...unless they figure the cost/price of energy rises, and consumers "stay home and sweat"?
and this is total energy (not per capita) ... what's the population increase over the next 30 years ... another 1 billion, 2 ?
but price is the main motivator ... higher prices mean more efficient (and more expensive) devices.
but why is "natural gas" such a "green" fuel ? combust it, does it not produce CO2 ? ok, maybe less CO2 per joule but still. And what sort of reserves do we have ? More than gasoline ? Sounds like a report the "natural gas" marketing board would put out.
"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
but price is the main motivator ... higher prices mean more efficient (and more expensive) devices.
but why is "natural gas" such a "green" fuel ? combust it, does it not produce CO2 ? ok, maybe less CO2 per joule but still. And what sort of reserves do we have ? More than gasoline ? Sounds like a report the "natural gas" marketing board would put out.
"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
- Thread starter
- #37
GregLocock
Automotive
It's roughly half the CO2/kWh of coal, and is the main reason why the USA's CO2 footprint is reducing. That transition is drawing to a close. Reserves seem to be enormous, 50 yers confirmed and more to come.
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
Cheers
Greg Locock
New here? Try reading these, they might help FAQ731-376
1/2 of coal still seems a long way from zero ! But it could be a tolerable middle ground ... reduce the amount of CO2 whatever it is doing to the environment, at a reasonable cost, and keep the lights on.
Would've thought then that it'd be a case of natural gas as an interim measure, whilst we build more nukes.
"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
Would've thought then that it'd be a case of natural gas as an interim measure, whilst we build more nukes.
"Hoffen wir mal, dass alles gut geht !"
General Paulus, Nov 1942, outside Stalingrad after the launch of Operation Uranus.
This could get interesting... the province of Alberta vs. Turdeau...
"Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she is “disappointed” in the federal government’s proposals for net-zero mandates and oil and gas production cuts.
In a statement on Saturday, Smith called the proposed mandates “unconstitutional” and “extremely harmful” to Alberta’s and Canada’s economies.
This comes after federal Environmental Minister Steven Guilbeault announced he will be publishing policy guidelines that will dictate the circumstances for the flow of future federal investment to Canadian oil and gas firms."
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
"Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she is “disappointed” in the federal government’s proposals for net-zero mandates and oil and gas production cuts.
In a statement on Saturday, Smith called the proposed mandates “unconstitutional” and “extremely harmful” to Alberta’s and Canada’s economies.
This comes after federal Environmental Minister Steven Guilbeault announced he will be publishing policy guidelines that will dictate the circumstances for the flow of future federal investment to Canadian oil and gas firms."
-----*****-----
So strange to see the singularity approaching while the entire planet is rapidly turning into a hellscape. -John Coates
-Dik
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