Toad -
I've wondered the same thing a number of times. I keep telling myself that I'm going to look this up, but have never had the time.
When I do find the time, I will probably start with AISC Design Guides 4 and 16 for end plate moment connections. These have a number of cases where multiply lines of bolts were used. Therefore, if you get ahold of some of the referenced papers, I imagine that one of them goes into more detail about how they arrived at the procedure. Part of this will get into yield-line theory for the plates (which you may or may not be interested in), but I would think that part of it has to cover the prying action on the bolts.