We used a rule of thumb that 10% resistance increase over the as-built condition was a near end-of-life condition; this was for tungsten filaments operating at a constant voltage in vacuum (radiatively coupled). The math for this is surprisingly easy, if you assume a uniform evaporation of the filament along its length. As the wire loses mass, the diameter drops and the surface area of the filament decreases, which causes the temperature of the filament to climb, which increases the rate of mass loss, and ... well you can see how this leads to a "runaway" failure condition.
For conductively-coupled elements, there is less likely to be a uniform loss of mass along the length of the wire/ribbon, and more likely that a failure occurs at a local imperfection which forms a "hot spot". Also, the mass loss of the element has more to do with chemical reactions (oxididation) and diffusion of the metal into its surrounding insulation, which are more complex phenomena. Still, the failure mode should have a runaway curve just like the evaporating filament. Logging the voltage/current on a regular basis may help give you some empirical data to help find a good "endpoint" at which you should replace the heater.