If you are measuring the pressures right at the pump suction and discharge, then the system should have no affect on where you run relative to the curve. It will have a very great affect on where you run on the curve. In other words, If the system has excessive downstream restriction, it may run at a very low flow rate. But, plotting that flow rate and head, you should still be on the curve.
A have made up a number of tools to help troubleshoot pumps that are (or seem to be) underperforming the curve. The most common causes are these:
1. Blocked on the suction
2. Blocked on the discharge
3. Alternate flow path
4. Pump wear
5. Running backwards
6. Assembly error
7. Wrong product
8. Driver speed
In your example, you cannot rule out #1 unless you have measured the suction pressure right at the pump inlet flange. There could be a dropped gate on a valve or a plugged suction strainer. In cold water, you would probably be able to hear the hard cavitation in either case, so it may not be likely.
You can rule out #2 if you have a pressure gauge right at the pump discharge. If there is anything in between the pump and the pressure gauge, even a wide open valve, this could be the problem. We find at least one gate valve with the gate dropped each year.
Alternate flow path usually involves flow that is not passing through the flow meter. A minimum flow spill-back, a leaky check valve on a companion pump, a warm up line or any branch connection that would be diverting flow such that it does not pass through the flow meter will introduce error. Block in any other lines to see if the flow you register on the flow meter changes.
Pump wear could involve impeller wear, wear ring clearances, volute lip wear, etc.
Running backwards, some centrifugal pumps will put up as about half as much flow, at a given head. Your three phase motor could be wired for the wrong rotation.
Assembly error has mainly affected us for double suction impellers which can be installed backwards. But, if a wear ring was left out or some other serious assembly error occured, you could have a major loss of performance.
Wrong product usually just affects that accuracy of the flow measurement and the calculations you did to convert pressure into head. But, for ambient water, this is unlikely.
If the curve is drawn for a speed different that your driver is running, this will show up as a loss of performance. This is more serious with a turbine, but can be relevant with a motor, as well.
Johnny Pellin