price trends, past and future, effect of oil price

[EngForm78]

Does anyone have information on the average price of raw material for a given plastic from say 1980-2005. Also, are there projections on the prices for the next 10 years, increase or decrease, and by how much. The plastics of interest are the basic commondity plastics.

What I hope to see is whether the increase in oil prices causes prices to rise, or will technology advancements continue to lower raw material prices. How has technology and oil prices affected plastic prices in the past?

Thanks in advance

 

[Demon3]

Hello,

Yes, I have that data but it is confidential. Nevertheless I can answer your question. Commodities of all types including plastics are dominated by raw materials costs. That means that the plastic commodities prices (PE, PP, PS, HIPS etc) closely follow the oil price. In fact, that is one definition of commodities (low margin and follows materials price).

Because the raw materials dominate there is no way that technology advances can compensate for the high oil price. Even if manufacturing and transportation costs were lowered to zero it still would not compensate for the high oil price.

As the oil price is expected to maintain a high level we can expect commodity polymers to remain expensive and to get even more expensive. Currently the high oil price is not fully passed on to the customer via price increases. If the oil price remains high as expected then this will change and prices will go up.