I know of a Sq D Sy/MAX in service (on a draw bridge) since 1983.
I/O is usually the hardware that dies,,,, I'm trying to think if I ever ran into a CPU failing without having had major damage as the cause!
The problem is kinda like backing-up your hard drive; when it crashes you find out how good your backups were. Sure, it's possibly cheaper to replace a PLC than keep repairing it after some point, but if your prog and doc's are 20 yrs old, you MAY have a huge project on your hands. ....and I LOVE those kind of projects!
A PLC is very well capable of outlasting it's "manufacturer", like Sy/MAX, T.I., GE, Allen Bradley.... Oh yeah, AB still supports all those oldies,,,, just like Schneider and Siemens and Fanuc do.
My bet is that 10 yrs from now AB will still be making and selling some SLCs, and along with the rest of the major players they'll be doing systems with a CPU unit and all I/O will be remote or "smart". PLCs direct, and a Chinese company will be making cheap "old style" PLCs, and you'll get one with 64 discrete I/O (10-300V AC/DC) and a bunch of high-speed timer counters, for $100.
Of course there will also be a Linux based "open architecture" standard by then......