OK, all good questions. Here's more details.
1) The fluid service is chilled water at 40 degF. System internal pressure is about 60 psi, ambient temperature is 72 degF. There are no known conditions that would cause significant thermal cycling of the line.
2) It is unknown, but assumed that a piping analysis was done for the pipe segment 10 years ago.
3) This is indoors, so no wind, no snow, etc. No relief valve. The 1.5" pipe is a fill line, and provides chilled water to a tank. The fill operation is not constant, and is known to be very infrequent, say once a quarter, as this is a manual operation.
4) Water hammer in the entire system is an assumption that we are trying to determine if it exists or not. We have some trend data that implies water hammer spikes in the mains, but we are running that down in a separate project. My personal assumption is not that the water hammer pressure spike blew out the elbow, but rather it rattled the line, which caused a nut to fall off the clevis hanger, which then dropped the line about a foot and created enough force on the elbow to cause it to fail.
5) It is my limited understanding that thermal or mechanical cyclic stress will cause work hardening of the copper. For 90 deg elbows, this shows up as the inner radius being harder than the outer radius. We are confirming this by Rockwell hardness test on the elbow.
6) Our working theory is the elbow was exposed to mechanical cyclic stress (I don't know if it was high or low). The pipe was supported only by clevis hangers, which allowed it to move in the horizontal plane. The elbow in question was pretty much anchored, in that it was less than 1' off the top of the 6" horizontal main CS pipe. The other end of the pipe is anchored as it is attached to a tank. It had been reported by plant personnel that the line would "shake" when the tank was being filled. The line is in a part of the plant that is not normally occupied, so we can not prove or disprove how much or how often the pipe would move over a 10 year period.
7) No evidence of erosion, corrosion, stress cracking, wall thinning, mechanical damage, or manufacturing defect in the elbow. No embrittlement of the material.
So now, the overall theory is that the elbow had been work hardened via some cyclic mechanical stress over 10+ years. Then, a clevis hanger in the middle of the pipe failed (perhaps a water hammer event occurred in the main that shook the nut off the hanger), dropping the pipe and causing a large, sudden force in the same plane as the elbow, causing it to snap. If this is true, then the physical properties (ie - hardness) of the elbow changed over 10 years. Therefore, if I were doing the piping stress analysis 10 years ago, what calculated value would have warned me of the potential that the elbow would be exposed to enough cyclic movement to cause work hardening, and thus the change in the physical properties of the elbow, leading to its failure after the failure of a pipe hanger? My initial reaction is that this sequence of events was too unlikely for the original designer to consider to be a credible scenario. Thoughts?