In terms of life predictability, bearings and seals share this: All bets are off in the presence of misalignment/ contamination/ abusive installation practices, etc.
Beyond that, it's one of nature's miracles that properly installed ball bearings _have_ a statistically predictable life, and that someone was able to fit a usable equation to it.
I haven't messed with mechanical seals much, but I have messed with shear- seal valves, which I think are tribologically similar. What I found, for otherwise constant conditions, was that the normal pressure on the seal faces has some optimum value. Too little pressure, and the seal leaks excessively. Too much pressure, and the seal faces wear fast. The 'sweet spot' is pretty narrow; but if you can find it, the life becomes essentially infinite. Pressure above the sweet spot puts you in a range where the life is proportional to the volume of material available to be worn away. I don't know what the entire solution surface looks like, but the part that I do know about is not nice and neat.
Your guy has expectations that we can't meet directly, unless I missed a meeting.
Oh. Yeah. The few mechanical seals that I've replaced mostly didn't fail by wear of the sealing faces. In most cases, the bellows/ static seal behind the dynamic seal died of old age, and in some cases the resulting fluid leak went undetected long enought to cause a bearing failure that in turn fractured a seal face. I honestly don't know if there's a way to model progressive hardening and embrittlement of elastomers, but I'm pretty sure it's strongly dependent on the thermochemical environment.
How much research and analysis is your guy willing to pay for?
Mike Halloran
Pembroke Pines, FL, USA