When I lived in Houston in the late 70's and early 80's, I worked contract and used to alternate between petrochem, pipelines, paper and civil structures. Probably a bit more than I needed to, but, none-the-less it saved my bacon a couple of times. I did pipe stress, wood chip conveyors, reactor foundations, finishing buildings, nuclear pipe whip restraints on the South Texas Project, the elevator tower, scoreboard and gymnasium at Texas A&M Kyle Field, compressor foundations, chemical warehouses, piperacks, pipelines, platform piping and structural modifications, boat landing repairs. Anything I could sometimes. All and all, as I said, probably some because I really just liked doing different things, but some of it was necessary to make the house payments from time to time.
As far as petro work goes, it is pretty heavily dependent on the price/BBL, which should theoretically get higher as supplies approach "Peak Oil" levels, so anything could happen in an approach to that scenario. What I think could happen there is the price may go so high, everyone switches to alternates, or only a small amount will be produced, because it becomes totally unaffordable and only a relatively small number of engineers will be needed to produce a small volume of the stuff. What is left to be determined now is if what we are seeing today is a function of "international risk and fear" or if its the beginning of "Peak Oil" functions we're seeing. I tend to believe it is fear, and a price decline is around the corner of economic slowdown. Its too early for peak oil effects (IMO) as I believe peak oil only rears its head at times of high economic activity and economic activity can still be contracted. Peak oil for me is when we reach such a low level of supply that no level of economic contraction will reduce consumption. That's where I see the world crossing into the bleakest of peak oil scenarios.
If I were getting into this now, I'd be thinking about a couple of things,
1) Can I plan on this business until I retire,
2) Can I plan on vesture in a retirement contribution account by working for with the same company for 5 years.
Both seem to be difficult for me and my immediate circle friends, although some (perhaps less adventurous) have managed to stay in one place (with varying degrees of happiness and satisfaction).
What I would really say is true is that, expecially with supplies declining in the US, you should be prepared to travel because the work will follow the oil source and Houston does not have a lock on the business that it once did. Many petro engineering centers are opening up in other places and quite a bit of work once done in Houston and the US is being outsourced to eastern Europe, Asia, South America and a lot of producing countries are demanding more work be done in country. I don't mind travel, but that's also possible in my situation. Others may not find it so convenient.
In any case, I don't consider any job or position permanent and my loyalities are only to the given project I happen to be working on at any given time. If the contracts are in house, you have security only until they are completed or canceled, so not even that means too much. I say just enjoy it while the sun's shining. That's about the only real hi-value advice I can give, other than make your own decisions as to what's best for you and your family, and don't ever lose a previous contact. (A lot of people can do HVAC or pipeline engineering or whatever, but only YOU know the people that YOU know.)
Anyway that's MHO. Forgive my rambles.
BigInch
![[worm]](/data/assets/smilies/worm.gif "[worm] [worm]")
-born in the trenches.
