microhydro:
Start by recalling how water freezes. In general, water gets more dense as it cools, but below about 40F, the water starts becoming less dense. What this means is that typically, as the pond water cools, the coldest water will naturally make its way to the top. As the temperature of the water reaches 32F, ice will start to form on the surface. If this worked right, you could get away with one coil (the lower one).
However, this is all assuming that the water is well-mixed. In actuality, the thermal driven advection (mass transport) of the water is slow, which means that the evaporator coil will quickly become ice-bound, severely limiting the rate of heat transfer to the pond. If the average temperature of the pond is above 32, and your heat pump system cycles off, then heat from the pond will eventually migrate to the ice, melting it--and the situation will resolve itself until the heat pump re-starts and the coil becomes ice-bound again. But if there is ice on the surface (which will eventually happen), then the liquid water below the surface will also be at or very close to 32F. Any ice that forms on the evaporator coils at this point will stay there until spring*. The reason? There is still "heat" in the liquid water of the pond, but it is latent heat, and heat transfer can only take place if there is a temperature difference (a sensible heat difference).
On top of all this, I anticipate that a 2 foot deep pond would freeze solid on its own due to the weather, making the proposed design impractical at best. Do people ice fish or skate in the area? How much ice forms on those ponds?
Given the climate, I would suggest a ground-source heat pump if you are set on the heat pump idea. You're probably trying to avoid drilling an expensive well by using the spring water, which is certainly a noble effort. Are you sure the water is only 40F (even in the winter)? That seems a little cold for ground water--but I don't know the area. Maybe you could drill or dig a shallow well near the spring and get at some warmer ground water. It seems like you only need a few degrees and I suspect the spring water may be losing heat to the surface rocks as it comes to the surface if this temperature really was what you measured in the winter.
Good luck,
Dave
* Some ice will dissipate and possibly re-form elsewhere due to the equilibrium between the water and ice... individual molecules will enter the ice structure and depart. However, this process is very slow and I would not count on it to remove the ice.