IPCC | Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis 32

[cmoreride]

Climate change is widespread and intensifying
says the latest IPCC report.
It underscores the urgency of strong,
sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

 

[rb1957]

ok, this has devolved into the usual pi$$ing match ... sigh.

we're no longer talking about the issue, but rather whose bona fides are better/bigger ... sigh.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[1503-44]

I can't understand why anyone who thinks climate change is BS visits this forum. Their opinions are going to be totally irrelevant to "climate change solutions". Its really not the place to argue about the validity of the data for it or against it. Serious visitors are not looking for "do nothing" solutions.

 

[LionelHutz]

Don't some of you realize you're responding to a poster that will just keep posting whatever is required to get a rise and response out of you, even to the point of contradicting themselves?

 

[rb1957]

has anyone said "climate change is BS" ?

I think the comments are saying "a lot of the advocated changes/responses to climate change are BS".

And now we're not allowed to question the data, the future predictions, and the interpretations of the data ?
well, so much for science !

If we're all Wrong, then what would you do (if you were in charge) ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[1503-44]

Question the data all you want, but doing that here makes no sense.

Maybe this is the place to ask your questions about data.

https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/

 

[rb1957]

still, what would you do (if you were in charge) ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

still, what would you do (if you were in charge) ?

Really what this thread is about.

What change can we expect from reptilian leaders operating on a 4-year cycle while combatting violent regional forces having a Mediaeval mindset, and while operating in constant disaster recovery mode (natural and economic)?
What change can we hope for when we remain in thrall to the Progress project after 2+ centuries? Progress is the de facto public religion, crossing all political parties and systems, and historically those have been extremely resistant to reform. Empires typically ultimately fail by environmental collapse, and Ronald Wright shows that this was always tied to an utter resistance to abandon the methods and beliefs that built their empires. But we are now on our last chance.

Changing our perpetual economic growth mindset is at the root of the necessary change. Reasoned, fact-based arguments have been shown to have limited effectiveness in the age of populism, so I believe people need better stories and metaphors (for those who actually have learned what that is). Here's one simple brute-force metaphor: the planet is a petri dish of fixed diameter and humans are the bacteria, doubling their population regularly while consuming the finite resources. When we were less numerous there was no apparent problem (even though we all could see the wall in the distance), but now there are more bacteria who each demand more food than ever before, and we are hitting the edge of the dish in places. Do we learn to eat less? Do we cannibalize our neighbours? Recall that wars are almost always about territory and resources...


"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[rb1957]

ok, what would you do ?

if burning FF is the worst idea we ever had, then logically we should stop. Now, today. And suffer the economic fallout.

now expect some countries will not follow suit, and boycotts and embargos are ineffective in getting them to change their clearly irresponsible behaviour. Thus war.

now think of our starving masses, and those in other places. I'd expect the social "unrest" would resolve the over-population "problem" faster than most other things.

I wonder what the world would look like in 10 years ? Certainly much lower population, almost as certainly a much lower level of civilization. Hopefully the nukes are still in their silos, but unlikely.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

I never promised you a rose garden. Our garden is in fact infested with pesticide-resistant enemies. The Syrian conflict has been called the first war of global heating, and it won't be the last. Things will get a lot worse before they get better. (Don't shoot the messenger.)

"And suffer the economic fallout" is just another expression of the zero-sum gambit that is the most effective tool in the politician's kit. It's a form of extortion. And of course if the economy is the lens through which we view the world, that will appear to be true.

The zero-sum mindset will cause some to put words in my mouth to the effect of "so you are advocating returning to caves?". I'm just saying we must find a steady state way of living on the only planet we have. In harmony with nature, because we are organisms too, as Covid is reminding us with a vengeance. We must call off the war on nature, a war where everybody loses.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Empires typically ultimately fail by environmental collapse,

Huh? What do you mean by that?

It just seems like a very odd comment. I'm trying to think of any examples where there could even remotely be true..... And, I'm having trouble.
[ul]
[li]My impression was that the Roman Empire was too large to manage and merely fractured into multiple parts.[/li]
[li]Ottoman empire sided with Germany in WWI and was dissolved (although it had been in decline for years).[/li]
[/ul]

Maybe you mean something different when you say "environmental collapse".

 

[rb1957]

most ancient civilisations (Mayan, Sumerian, Bronze Age collapse, etc) failed because of changes in the local climate and rainfall.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[rb1957]

"And suffer the economic fallout" ... if we stopped using FFs today, what do you think would happen ? Instantly our economies would collapse.

Ok, that sounds bad ... so don't stop FFs altogether, but make gasoline $10/lt (about 8* current prices, here in NA). That'd be pretty dire for the economy as well.
And what would it achieve ? I understand that even if we stopped all CO2 "pollution" today, the atmosphere would continue heating for 100s of years ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[1503-44]

Mayan to name 1.
Easter Islanders.
Garamantes of the central Sahara Desert.
Cliff dwelling cultures of US SW may have been another.
Rome?

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/scie...hange-and-disease-helped-fall-rome-180967591/

I think the perpetual economic growth model is driven by greed and capitalism. Shareholders don't like stagnant markets, or no growth, or declining sectors. I'm perfectly fine without another beach hotel ever being built anywhere.

What would I do about climate change. Pretty much what oil companies do when exploring. Pick the best fields, not one. Partner with others to spread the risk and hope for a gusher while breaking even on others and shutting down the losers. Pretty much what DOE is doing. Looking for numerous promising technologies. Spread the risk among the best. Seed and water the ones making the most progress.

 

A Short History Of Progress by Ronald Wright

The only exception he discusses is the Incas, an extended, decentralized culture that did not overdraw on available resources.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[1503-44]

The Incan system was apparently working very well across many aspects up to the point of the arrival of Spanish gunpowder and smallpox.

 

Weapons of mass destruction...

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts."

 

[rb1957]

then why not nukes ? oh, that's right, the greenies don't like them.

and how long will your program take to show some results ?
and when special interest groups champion one or other method ?

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[JoshPlumSE]

Easter Islanders: Just to be clear Easter Island residents were never an empire. This was a subsistence culture for the most part. Not much more advanced than stone age hunter / gatherers.
Cliff Dwelling Cultures of SW Unitied States: Neither were these. Also, a subsistence culture for the most part. Not much more advanced than stone age hunter / gatherers.

But, I will accept the idea that the Mayans, Incans, or Summerians. Or, egyptian, greek, roman, ottoman or such.

Incans fell due to invasion (and small pox) brought by the Spanish Conquistadors.
Mayans: I thought the same was true for the Mayans. I'd love an explanation about how this is an environmental collapse. But, I will accept if folks say there were climate changes that occurred as well.
Sumerians: It sounds like this was environmental in some form.

 

[rb1957]

Mayan was environmental ... rainfall patterns changed ... no water, no food. (Mayan pre-dated the Aztecs by some 100s of years)

Ancient civilisations were particularly vulnerable to local climate changes.

another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?

 

[rb1957]

"The Incan system was apparently working very well across many aspects up to the point of the arrival of Spanish gunpowder and smallpox."

of course the other thing the Spanish brought was (their) religion.


another day in paradise, or is paradise one day closer ?