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Orange_kun good post.My old roommate is a metal fabricator. He would routinely estimate the deflection of steel and stainless steel parts when he was going to weld them. Like, to better than 20 thou when dealing with 6ft lengths. Usually, the fab process would focus on tack weld location and layup configuration to minimize distortion. IE: If you have a 2 sided fillet weld holding a wall that needs to be straight... you'd tack both sides in similar spots, and you don't weld 4 passes on one side before hitting the other side. A lot more goes into the fabrication than just "make the weld called out on the drawing".
In theory, you could take the material's initial condition (assuming it's heat treatable) and the distortion coefficient for different phases, and use that with the estimated size of the HAZ to guess how much material is going to phase change and pull things. In reality, you also have the thermal expansion to deal with and the welder skill/weld quality. If a fat fillet weld gets TIGed in slowly, the whole joint gets super hot, fuses, and will pull like crazy as it cools. A faster welder, smaller bead, or colder process can mitigate all this.
Long story short: trial and error. This is prime example of the benefits of skill and experience. A skilled welder with their head screwed on straight, and varied experience? Will be able to figure out a great process in short order that any monkey could then follow. But if you ask the monkey to weld things straight the 1st time, you might be disappointed. Expect a slower production rate for the first few pieces, with marginal results on the accuracy... but then things should straighten (heh) themselves out. Most of the welders I have worked with like doing good work and absolutely nailing the dimensions. It's a source of pride. But every joint needs some practice if you want perfection.