Hi,
I agree with Drej. It is extremely difficult to have complete knowledge over all the factors involved in the nut/bolt threads contact: material properties of course, + friction (is it oiled? greased? dry? "moderately-oiled"? and so on...!) + tolerances (tolerance on nominal diameter, tolerance on flanks inclination, tolerance on core diameter, tolerance on pitch, etc...!). Geometrical factors will make "random" knowing how many threads are really engaged, and which of them; friction factors will make it rather vague to know the relationship btw normal and tangential forces...
In my opinion this is a case where the uncertainties on the input data are greater than the precision which FE can ensure. Thus, I'd rather go with some normated (UNI/EN, VDI, JIS or others depending on what country you live in) analytical method and apply reasonable uncertainty factor.
Regards