Yes, I just had to do the best I could with the figures available. Older automatics are worse I believe and newer ones are getting better. I have figures for an automatic (with friction launch clutch) being always greater than 92% efficient from the Frankfurt motorshow so a manual couldn't beat that by more than 8% in any normal driving circumstances. (There were some exceptions to the efficiency, like high RPM, so the manual could still be a reasonable amout better at top speed.) It has power through two compounded planetary gearset, so efficiency will sometimes be of the order of 96%*96=92% so there is still room for improvement in planetary automatic design.
I have seen designs where only one planetary gearset is charged with power at a time. With a geared input and output shaft having losses of say 1% each, losses would tend to be around 1% (input) + 1% (output) + 1% (oil pump) + 4% (planetary gear) = 7% when in most of the gears, and with a couple of direct drive modes for the two more commonly used gear ratios, so about 1+1+1=3% losses when pottering around.
So let's say 95% average efficiency is round-about a theoretical maximum for planetary automatics in design, and since things never go as well as expected in practice, I'd say 94% average is maybe the best we will see, even if greater than 92%, ie 92% minimum (with caveats) is already being quoted by planetary automatic transmission designers.
For the Europeans, based on countershaft designs rather than planetary designs, due to their history of manuals instead of automatics, they can improve further. In my book, any drive-by-wire transmission has blurred the definition boundaries of the words automatic and manual. The transmission does what the software tells it, and that can be based on driver input, eg +/- controls, or software decisions: we are a bit fast so change up.
The VW dual clutch transmissions are effectively like two transmissions, one for A={1,3,5} and one for B={2,4,6}. A clutch is release for the offgoing gear A or B, and a clutch activated for the oncoming gear B or A. Mechanical efficiency of these transmissions should pretty much equal those of a manual. There is a problem that only odd-to-even or even-to-odd gear changes are possible, so for example 6 to 2 would have to be something like 6 to 5 to 2.
There are Austrailian designs where the dual clutch transmission has been taken a step further and each of the {1,3,5} and {2,4,6} transmissions has powershift capabilities. In that case, 6 to 2 would be an internal powershift and 6 to 3 would work like a normal dual clutch gearchange. So all the creature comforts a six-speed automatic should be available in the future with manual gearbox type mechanical efficiency.
Statistically efficiency (as in CO2 g/km) will go up due to better (computer controlled) gear selection and the powershifting.
[The European method of testing efficiency, grams of CO2 per kilometer, is superior to the American system of measuring miles per gallon. If America sticks to miles per gallon then there will be pressure to switch to 'more efficient' diesels, which get more miles per gallon. However, it takes more oil out of the ground to make a gallon of diesel than to make a gallon of petrol. Secondly, petrol is mainly Carbon 6 and Carbon 8 molecules boiling below 180°C whereas diesel is mainly C 12 and above molecules boiling 160-400°C. Due to the bigger molecules, diesel has a higher energy density, and so it darn well ought to give more miles per gallon. End result: measure CO2 and not MPG, to have a fair test! Last thing to say about diesels is they have higher mpg because of the higher compression ratios too. With petrol direct injection that difference should be balanced out a bit in the course of time. People have been looking at HCCI engines, homogenous charge compression ignition. That doesn't seem worth the effort, as they cannot precisely predict the moment of autoignition: the solution in my opinion is to take it as close as they can to autoignition and then spark it - viola, high compression ratio and no timing problems.]
Hybrids are another subject. Its really about energy recovery rather than mechanical efficiency, but there is the stealth engine downsizing aspect too which will be significant for countries with oversized engines. For overtaking with an SUV the motor power is there; towing something heavy for a long time at speed, and the motor power won't be there. So stealth engine downsizing by counting motor-generator horsepower in with engine power is good for reducing oil demand and fashion victim SUVs buyers dererve it, but at the same time, there is the potential 'con' for people that actually think they will be buying a work-horse.
Geared CVTs like the Prius?
At the moment, running motor/GENERATOR 1 to power MOTOR/generator 2 is clearly not efficient. Geared (Power split) CVTs have merit, but not as currently implemented.