dbecker -
I just saw this thread, so I'm coming to the conversation a little late.
By way of background, I do both thermal imaging and heat transfer analysis using FEA and CFD methods. I don't use ANSYS, so am not familiar with the details of its setup.
Here are some comments: (all include "in my opinion")
1. If you are looking at a failure or over temperature event driven by issues at the connection then the resistive heating in the remainder of the conductors due to their resistivity or shape changes will be minor by comparison. Yes, systems under load heat up, but failing systems whether due to loose connections, dirty connections, or corroded connections heat up a lot more. You should be able to ignore everything that contributes to normal load heating and look only at the unusual, which would be the increased resistance at the joint / part interface.
2. Using the heat generation of 20.28 watts on the interface is what I would do. I have done a sample analysis using that method, which I have used as a basis for papers at SPIE Thermosense and at EPRI's IRUG conference. I think it gives an excellent estimate of what will be going on. A couple of images from the paper are included in the brochure that is at the link I provide below.
3. You did not specify whether the component is air-filled, oil-filled, or under vacuum. If air or vacuum, radiation will have some effect, but most of the parts will be low emissivity and will not partake in significant radiative exchange. However, you need to assess whether nearby parts with higher emissivity are getting sufficiently hot by conduction or convection to be significant participants in radiation to the inside of the enclosure. If the unit is oil filled, then radiation will only be a factor on the outside of the enclosure to the surroundings.
4. Your most recent posting indicates that you are using the CFD model to assess heat transfer coefficients. That makes it sound like you are then doing manual calculations or non-CFD FEA calculations of the heat transfer. I would not use that route. Having CFD capability allows you to model the interior flow which will affect the heat removal from the interior parts and will also affect the temperature patterns being developed on the enclosure. These latter patterns may impact how the overall component dumps its heat to the surroundings. [I realize as I write this that using HTC for the parts means you are not dealing with an evacuated part.] I would suggest using the CFD for the full solution, including natural convection, especially on the interior. You might be able to use a film coefficient (plus radiation if appropriate) between the outside of the enclosure and the surroundings. If the system is oil filled, you will need density vs temperature properties for the oil. (BTW, if you have that data, I would appreciate your sharing it. I ran into an analysis that needed it, but could not find much.) If you wanted to, you could shorten the analysis time by doing pure heat transfer calcs in FEA without flow. I would suggest, in that case, that you increase the thermal conductivity of the fluid (air?) in the component by a factor of 2-3 to allow for the convective component and treat the problem as a conduction only exercise.
5. Since you question the resistance measurement, one approach would be to do a parametric study of T(lug) as the dependent variable vs heat generation rate at the contacts. This would be an implied function of the resistance of the contact. The test data of 12 microohms is a resistance, not a resistivity. (I say that because of all the discussion above about units and areas, etc. (not all of which I followed)) I would start with the 1300 amps you cite above, giving I2R= 20.28 watts as you state. You can then develop a curve of lug T vs. assumed resistance where the resistance is used to calculate the heat generation at the interface. 20watts may not seem like a big number, but it can do a lot of heating in a small volume.
I hope this helps.
Jack
Jack M. Kleinfeld, P.E. Kleinfeld Technical Services, Inc.
Infrared Thermography, Finite Element Analysis, Process Engineering