GregLocock,
Efficiency in ball bearings can be a very complex issue. So no, there is not a quick and dirty evaluation of the trade-off of varying osculation.
If the bearing is operating with light loads and a low dN value, then the osculation value is not so important. But if the bearing is highly loaded, has some shaft bending, and is subject to a high dN, then osculation can have a big effect on efficiency, scoring and fatigue life.
With a highly loaded, high dN ball bearing, the important thing with regards to efficiency is the operating contact angle between the inner and outer races. If these points are off-axis to the ball's rotation, then some skidding or spin loss will occur at the hydrodynamic oil films supporting the ball's contacts. A larger osculation radius results in less of this off-axis effect as the ball contact geometry changes under load.
If skidding or spin loss at the ball contact becomes severe enough, the heat generated will cause a flash failure of the oil film and the contact will degrade from hydrodynamic to boundary conditions. The friction will increase causing more heat generation, and the bearing will suffer a rapid scoring failure.
Hope that helps.
Terry