Matlab Simulink, GPSS, or whatever for simulation - are they really that expensive when you consider that you begin with a system that already understands basic simulation concepts, probably has a built-in graphic display to show the simulation while it is running, and allowa you to define simple paramaters and get comprehensive results analysis?
A few thousand dollars will get the simulator, and probably will save its own cost many times over. My experience has always been that the first-cut simulation has more flawed assumptions in the simulation than it has meaningful results. Rework in FORTRAN will be more costly than rework in a simulator software too. The ease of refinement from first-cut to finished product alone is worth the cost. The built-in report generation will amaze you. The graphics will "wow" you.
I agree with DanTex that you'll spend months more time, and you'll probably end up with "spaghetti code" by the time it's all done, but I'll disagree about using another flavor of FORTRAN. Whether it's in FORTRAN, C/C++, VB, Gee-Whiz-BASIC, PASCAL or whatever, you're still spending project time to reinvent something that already exists. If you have the research project established, you already have an estimate of the cost-per-hour of that project. How many hours does it take to payback the cost of decent simulation software? Download a student version or a demo version of a simulator package and play with it for a day or two. You may even find they have a city-traffic simulation as a demo! You might also get in touch with a local conveyor supplier; they do these kinds of traffic simulations routinely, and may be able to suggest a better simulation package and show you how it works. Most of the traffic management concepts are the same, just on a smaller scale.
Nobody writes finite-element analysis in FORTRAN anymore, because so many good analysis packages exist. Ditto motion simulation.
BTW - the "best" computer program is a fiction. What's the "best" kind of car? A Cadillac or a Rolls-Royce is really neat, but not if you want to get 50 MPG. Everything is comprimise, especially in computers. Does it do what you need done, the way you want it done? That's the question.
Howard