Here's the beginnings of a rational approach to the statistics of murder-cars. I haven't been through it in detail yet and it is not definitive
Abstract
The safety of increasingly automated vehicles is of great concern to regulators, yet crash rates are generally reported by manufacturers with proprietary metrics. Without consistent definitions of crashes and exposure, comparing automated vehicle crash rates with baseline datasets becomes challenging. This study investigates the reported on-road crash rates of one manufacturer’s partially automated driving system. Their reported crash rates are adjusted based on roadway classification and driver demographics to allow for direct comparison with the manufacturer’s own advanced driver assistance systems. Recommendations for uniform crash reporting standards are provided.
5 Conclusions
By correcting for roadway usage differences between the Autopilot and active safety only data, much of the crash reduction seen by vehicles using Autopilot appears to be explained by lower crash rates experienced on freeways. Correcting for age demographics likewise produced a 10% increase in the estimated crash rate, although it remains well below the rate of severe crashes in the SHRP 2 NDS.
Several other factors may explain difference in safety rates of new vehicle technologies based on who is using them, where they are being used, and when they are being used. Some safety features cannot be used in rain or snow, for example, which may bias the data towards clear weather and lower crash rates generally.
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Cheers
Greg Locock
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