Hi Guys
I've been playing, which is all I can really call it, with fatigue methods, SSFs, spring/splice models for more than 15 years now. The best and most accurate way that I have found to obtain a somewhat reasonable (note, fatigue is nothing if not stochastic) fatigue life prediction methodology is to use actual joint SN data. If one searches hard enough and thoroughly enough, there are literally dozens and dozens of public domain test data reports/papers on joint SN testing.
First off, the NACA and wartime reports(yes, WW2) have an over abundance of both riveted, bolted, countersunk (even over 100%), dimpled, etc. joint test results. In addition, many OEMs published several technical papers in the 50's and 60's with great referenceable data on joint testing, they are just hard to locate. I believe many of the old ICAF papers have such information as well. I myself have a collection of over 100 referenceable reports which has taken quite some time to locate over the years, but it can be done.
Now, since I work for an OEM, I have the added luxury of adding more test data and I was able to develop my own alpha and beta factors to adjust my SSF to account for various effects. However, this is not entirely necessary as you could use the actual joint SN curves themselves and then factor them. Main point is, the Mil-Hndbk 5 SN curves themselves do not accurately predict joint fatigue lives. I have tested hundreds of joint specimens and generally if you use MH5 it is very conservative at high max stresses but very unconservative at lower stresses.
Note that effects such as fastener fit, countersink, finish, hand vs machine driving, deburring, etc. can far outway any amount of "polishing the beebee" in building nice detailed splice models, I know, I have built my share of them. Just as a side note, I have investigated blind fasteners as well and have performed many actual tests on them. A blind rivet in a machine countersunk hole can have a life reduction factor of over 2 compared to a hole filling rivet in the same machine countersunk hole. Also, a dimpled rivet has twice the life of one in a machine countersunk hole. Another surprising effect is bucked tail size. The life can actually vary as much as by a factor of 3 to 4 between a low and medium sized bucked tail. This reflects the effects of clamp-up and the resulting friction effects.
So, the lesson is, see the forest for the trees. Dont spend too much time predicting the % load transfer to a gnats tail and then overlook obvious more important impacts. Make a good conservative determination of the load transfer and move on and make sure your method accounts for the other effects.
James