Industry is the macro case.
Suppose we look at "US, UK, or any other industrialised nation as we would a single manufacturing company, the micro.
A company starts with a new product. We are familiar with product life cycles. Development through to boom sales, market leader status, then cut-throat competition, right through to end of life planning.
No company survives as a single product company.
The best companies have new products under devlopment all the time. As each product reaches its end of life, other products are at different stages in their life cycle.
Somewhere there is part of the engineering team doing cosmetic make-overs on an old and tired product to milk all they can out of it while somewhere else another team is ironing bugs out of prototypes of the next product.
Products start out life not quite right.
If they are unique, then they will be made right in the first few years and during that time marketing will get a better handle on things because now they have real market data and not just wishes and "value judgments" to go by. The product will be refined.
Probably the development team will move to the next new product, some addittional skills will be hired. Some of the skills will move to product maintenance and look after the product during its life.
Soon the unique status will go. Some of the people will move to competitors. Competitors don't have to pioneer the market or develop the necessary skills, they are going to come after the skills your company has developed and they will target your market.
They get a shorter time to market and they will bring fesh ideas.
A "Me-Too" product requires some compelling technical or commercial advantage to get a share of that market, though sometimes, just by being a biger company they can take market share without these advantages for a whole varietty of reasons. One thing, these products have to be right when they hit the market, or maybe they skip the high-margin niche-market and go for the market your company doesn't seem to know is there. They'll grab that and come back for the niche-market sector later when you're not looking.
After a while, every man and his dog is making this product, the skills are everywhere (you really do fulfill managemenst dream that no one is indispensible) and prices get cut to the bone; manufacturing moves overseas.
If it is a smart, well managed company that looks after its skills base, looks after its ideas men and knows where the market is, then it can afford to be philosophical because there are a whole string of new products in the pipeline.
See, the problem is that sooner or later, everyone can make a steam engine or a car. The smart companies are well managed and don't spill tears over the inevitable, and they don't go down in flames trying to live off one product well beyond its useful life. They have it sussed, they have growth through more investment in R&D in new skills, in new products, in new idea and new technologies, in marketing and sales. They are switched on, they are on the ball.
On the macro side of things it's the same.
You have to look at the management and see if they can cut the mustard.
Did they take care of the skills base?
Did they look after all the tools they need to suceed?
Can they plan beyond next wednesday? do they have to worry about being re-elected? Do they have their focus on the country or on their retirement, the lecture ciruit, the autobiography, directorships of all those companies that are going down the pan, being president of the EU or merging the US Canad and Mexico into one great big industrial super economy? or something else?
Industries are like products, they come and they go. Sooner or later they go where labour is cheap, taxes low, and where someone put some effort into providing the necessaru skills. What is important is what the guys at home are doing about the next industry?
The reason we notice this stuff is the life cycles are coming down. Where once a product could survive 40 years, 10 is good. We are not talking about a job or a skill you will get to use for your whole working life, it won't be needed. Again, i aks, if you have the brains and the talent, shouldn't re-training recognise the need to re-direct those skills? In evry company i have worked for, and some have been absolute dogs, even they have some budget for on the job training or for special training. What is government doing? In any industrialised country?
JMW