$6/kg seems wildly optimistic according to
Note these prices are in Australian dollars,
Our evaluation of the current and future (2030) cost of hydrogen from PV and electrolysis shows
that the potential cost using currently available technology is approximately $18.70/kg H2. The
base case system consists of a PV module with power electronics connected to a proton exchange
membrane electrolysis plant, which produces hydrogen only when the PV system is producing
power. The assessment is based on an estimated system cost of $2300/kW for a large scale, nontracking PV system with a mid-range capacity factor of 20.5% and a weighted average cost of
capital of 6.4%, as recently published by the CO2CRC (2015). It is assumed that the uninstalled cost
of the electrolyser and associated components is $2,285/kW, in line with recent estimates from
the European Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (Bertuccioli et al., 2014). Significant cost
reductions are predicted for both these technologies, cutting the estimated cost of hydrogen to
$9.10/kg by 2030.
The study also examined the potential of battery storage to reduce the cost of hydrogen
production. In this scenario, the battery system was used to condition the power supply from the
PV system, with sufficient storage capacity provided to enable continuous operation of the
electrolyser. Lithium-ion battery technology was selected as the most appropriate. In both current
and future scenarios, battery storage increased the cost of hydrogen relative to the base case, due
to its relatively high cost compared with energy production from PV. Based on current and future
battery costs of $540 and $200/kWh, the estimated cost of hydrogen was $28.40 and $11.30/kg in
2015 and 2030 respectively.
Cheers
Greg Locock
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