In 1989-1994 I had the opportunity to do extensive work on a 15kv power system installed in 1944. The client ended up replacing a lot of cable that did not look good during testing, but had not yet failed. A large part of his reliability problems were related to failing splices in his system of PILC (lead-sheathed, oil-impregnated paper insulated) underground feeders.
Admittedly, properly installed PILC makes a very robust installation, impregnable to the hydrocarbons available in this particular environment, but it does give an idea of the lifespan.
In the same environment there are some original switchgear components and transformers still plugging away today, SIXTY years later.
In 1994, I tested a station service transformer, single-phase, 45kv-120/240v that was dated 1902. Still in service. Lightly loaded, but still in service.
Hoever, a betting man would say thrity years max, twenty years for a safe bet, assuming proper installation and a reasonable environment.
old field guy