Azerbaijan Airlines flight carrying 67 people crashes in Kazakhstan

[IRstuff]

Plane crash in Kazakhstan killed dozens, but nearly half of those on board survived, officials say

Mobile phone footage circulating online appeared to show the Azerbaijani Airlines plane making a steep descent before slamming into the ground in a fireball in western Kazakhstan.

www.cbsnews.com

About half onboard survived the crash, currently believed to be caused by a bird strike

 

[TugboatEng]

There is a video. It appears to have lost attitude control. There are also videos of the tail section full of holes as of it were impacted by shrapnel, both entry and edit holes. If the videos are real, and they appear in my eyes to be, this was a shoot down.

The long video of the crash is here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1871827725268418742

Here is the shrapnel damage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1871997133228065100

 

[RedSnake]

Well it might have been a case of fog and bird encounter to begin with but most probably they also encountered "friendly fire" from the Russians in Rostov on Don..

 

[RedSnake]

They asked to make a emergency landing in Groznyj but was denied and then in Maschatjkala..

 

[RedSnake]

And the hole fuselage sems pepper sprayed..

 

[IRstuff]

None of the holes have been shown to penetrate both sides of the tail elements, suggesting they were caused by low velocity projectiles, like rocks kicked up from the crash landing. The holes show a directionality pattern, consistent with ground debris kicked up and impacting the plane during the crash as shown in the video of the crash.

The plane was able to be diverted and fly ~200 miles to Aktau instead of its original destination of Grozny

 

[TugboatEng]

The you and down oscillations may indicate that they were using engine power to control the attitude of the plane. This doesn't read as it was a bird strike.

 

[TugboatEng]

IR, see my first post. All of the holes penetrated both sides.

 

[RedSnake]

None of the holes have been shown to penetrate both sides of the tail elements, suggesting they were caused by low velocity projectiles, like rocks kicked up from the crash landing.

Well maybe but if you try to shoot down a drone that is flying on a altitude of maybe 1000 meter with a machine gun the bullets would probably not have a huge velocity at 3000 meter or what is usual for regular air flights.

 

[RedSnake]

A video of a drone in Groznyj sometime this morning.
The Russians implement what they call a carpetplan when drones are in the air meaning they close the airspace and airports.

Оперативний ЗСУ

Грозний(той, що в Чечні) зранку 🫡https://t.me/operativnoZSU

t.me

 

[RedSnake]

It seems like the latest assessment of this situation is that it was shoot down by the Russian air defence system.

Ofcourse this is unconfirmed and comes from Ukraine.

️As for the passenger plane that crashed in Kazakhstan, it was most likely shot down by a Russian air defense system in Chechnya.

The plane was trying to land in Grozny at a time when drones were being shot down over the city, despite the fog.

According to eyewitnesses, an explosion was heard outside, after which the plane was diverted to Makhachkala and then to Aktau, where it crashed.

How will Russia make amends? And what will it say to Kazakhstan?

 

[3DDave]

None of the holes have been shown to penetrate both sides of the tail elements, suggesting they were caused by low velocity projectiles, like rocks kicked up from the crash landing. The holes show a directionality pattern, consistent with ground debris kicked up and impacting the plane during the crash as shown in the video of the crash.

The plane was able to be diverted and fly ~200 miles to Aktau instead of its original destination of Grozny

There are entrance holes on one side of the stabilizer and exit holes on the other. The access door to the unpressurized tail section was open before the crash. There were holes in the cabin and at least one inflatable life vest recorded by a passenger prior to collision with the ground.

 

[RedSnake]

 

[RedSnake]

Everything indicates that the plane that crashed in Aktau was hit by Pe-Ve-O missiles, - Russian sources familiar with the situation

From the dialogues of the controllers with the crew, it follows that the ship, apparently, became a victim of electronic warfare jamming against UAVs, which were then working due to the drone attack.
As soon as the liner began to descend for landing, its GPS stopped working, and the control room lost "radar contact".
The pilot could not land the plane in such conditions and decided to fly to Baku.
When he began to turn around, an explosion occurred nearby - everything indicates that the board was hit by air defense means

The transcripts show that the crew repeatedly reported the failure of GPS sensors.
Despite the fact that they were already waiting to board at the airport.
But as the plane descended, problems occurred, which were probably due to the UAV "jammers".

At 08:16 the crew reports: "We have lost control, bird strike in the cockpit.
Bird strike in the cockpit."
Birds were mentioned in the plural several times.

It was at this time that an explosion and air defense strikes occurred near the ship, which the crew may have mistaken for a collision with a flock of birds.

Official comment from Rashka: the Kremlin will not put forward hypotheses about the causes of the plane crash near Aktau until the conclusions of the investigation, - Peskov.

At the same time, according to experts, the plane was probably shot down by the "Pantsir", which supposedly has AI and can operate in automatic mode. In reality, the automatic mode with AI consisted of shooting down everything in the sky at once, since the system is unable to distinguish targets in automatic mode.

https://t.me/operativnoZSU

 

[TugboatEng]

Maybe the engineering disaster here is the poor performance of the anti-aircraft system. It barely took down a commercial aircraft with zero warning, zero countermeasures, and zero hardening.

I have never heard anything positive about Embraer aircraft previously but I flew in one recently and it was the quietest and most comfortable airplane I have been in. Now I see one can take a missile strike, crash, and have a great number of survivors. I'm starting to be very impressed.

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

Jungle jets as we call them are pretty good from a Pilot pov


Similar to airbus and Canadian options there has been a russian style misinformation and persecution of them as a product.

Alot of us sighed with relief when the purchase fell through with Boeing. It was obvious the product was going to be killed by the Boeing MBAs to relieve pressure from Thier utterly rubbish product. They had attempted the same with A220 to kill it.

Both the emb and cs300/cs100 are over engineered for stretching pressure vessels with a developed fbw control system with high clearance gear legs.

Boeing is short gear, 1960 design way way outside modern design certification because they dodged it twice by months.

The MAX 10 is having so many non compliance issues added.. I expect it to become part of the political tariff discussions to force certification in various countries. But even then it going to be more than 4 years

 

[Alistair_Heaton]

I am extremely doubtful a A320 or B737 would have survived so long or had a less than 100% fatality rate.

To be fair the Vilnius 737-400 crash was old school and had people survived. It's being able to get ride of the potential and kinetic energy up to point we can't have any influence what happens to it that's the key.

 

[dik]

Well maybe but if you try to shoot down a drone that is flying on a altitude of maybe 1000 meter with a machine gun the bullets would probably not have a huge velocity at 3000 meter or what is usual for regular air flights.

If none of the holes are 'through and through, it should be real simple to determine what made them. It would have to be a real slow projectile to not penetrate both sides... I suspect not likely a bullet. I would suggest that a bullet would have a fairly distinctive penetration.

 

[TugboatEng]

See my first post. The holes are through and through.

 

[RedSnake]

Well according to the SBU the plane was shot down by a Pantsir-S1 system they also showed a picture of what remained of a 57E missile on a shoreline (not sure this picture is from this incident though it doesn't say).

However I doubt that, that was what hit the plane, simply because the injures on the plane doesn't correlate with this type of missile that have high explosive multiple continuous-rod/fragmentation warhead working like this.
The plane would probably not have survived that if it was used.




However the Pantsir-S1 also have two dual 2A38M 30 mm (1.2 in) autocannon guns with 700 rounds in a variety of ammunition,
HE (High Explosive) fragmentation, fragmentation tracer, and armour-piercing with tracer with a range up to 4 km.
It is more likely this was used, seems to fit better with the damages on the plane too.